The Republican of the Congress may soon find out that President Trump’s “Bada, Beautiful Bill” is not “beautiful” for his expectations to maintain both chambers in the mid -term elections of next year.
In fact, many elections have negatively affected the bill on the Republican, possibly threatening the prominences of their home and Senate.
A mid -June Voting Fox News revealed that 59 percent of the voters opposed the bill, vs only 38 percent who approved.
Similarly, another recent Quinipiak pole In addition, the bill was found to be under considerable water, with 55 percent of the support protested compared to 29 percent. In independents, the number is worse. According to Quinipiaq, about two-thirds 65 percent of political independents opposed the bill, only in one-fifth side.
Trump has hardly assured the bill that Trump has enacted his signature.
To ensure this, the division of the bill was reflected in its extremely narrow path. In the Senate, Vice President JD Vance had to vote tiebracing, despite the Republican being a three-seat majority.
And at home, it took it Significant arm To pass the version of the Senate of the bill by Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).
Complaint of cases for the Republican of the Congress is that they found themselves between a rock and a difficult place. Voting against the bill attracted Trump’s IRE and a possible primary challenger. Sen Thom Tilis (RNC) It turned out When he voted against the bill, he announced his retirement after Trump threatened to return a primary challenge.
On the other hand, voting for this, especially for the Republican of Purple Districts, may rage voters who find their federal benefits.
By that end, Republican’s recent profit with low income, the working class voters present a unique political challenge.
Fifteen years ago, Republican represented just 26 of the 100 lowest -income house districts. By 2023, according to A, it had exceeded 56 more than doubled. Analysis By Wall Street Journal.
This means that Republican now has a lot of components when depending on federal programs like Medicid, which is due to a cut between $ 800 million and $ 1 trillion under the bill, potentially 8–10 million people cost medical coverage, per, per, per, per, per, per, per. Congressional Budget Office.
In particular, the opposition by the Republican, including the self-ensured “Maga Republican”, increases considerably when they learn that the bill will reduce money for local hospitals and take health insurance away from millions.
Voting by Kaiser Family Foundation This indicates that 61 percent of Republicans and 72 percent “Maga Republican” initially support the bill, which falls on a large scale after being stated more about the bill.
When reported that the funding for local hospitals would be reduced under the bill, about two-thirds of Republican (64 percent) and Maga Republican’s majority (55 percent) sees the bill “unfavorable”.
A similar effect occurs when the respondents learned that about 10 million people would lose health coverage. After hearing this, about 6 (59 percent) of the Republican and 52 percent of the Maga Republican have an adverse approach to the law.
Interestingly, concern over cuts in federal benefits is not just to face obstructed Republicans, which are trying to make components their own case.
As Alone Musk and other fiscal hooksArguedThe bill asks for a huge increase in national debt.
There are valid arguments on both sides as to how much loss the bill will be added, but the budget office of Nonpartison CongressEstimateA little more than $ 3 trillion in 10 years.
By that end, Democrats are already ready to take advantage of widespread dissatisfaction on the bill. Democratic Congress campaign committee recently releasedMemorandumTo expand the hammer to Republican in next year’s midnight.
Largasi of the bill also gives many attacks to Democrats. Whether it is anxiety around the expenses, or the argument that the trump is cutting taxes to the rich by cutting federal aid for low -income Americans, even a Democratic party that struggles to create a consistent message should be an easy time.
For their share, the Republican is aware of the weaknesses exposed by the bill. Senate Magority Leader John Theun (Rs.) Promise Once voters listen to all the provisions, they will come around. And other Republican officials have tried Depiction of democrats Being in favor of “growing taxes on hardworking Americans” by opposing Trump’s 2017 tax deduction.
One problem is with Republican this message, however, it is that most American taxes cannot even accept the benefits. Given that this bill expands the existing tax deduction, most voters will see negligible changes as to what they pay.
The Republican will argue that the extended tax deduction and the bill include the bill will include economic development, which the administration believes will offset the impact on the deficit. In addition, efforts to reduce waste or fraud in federal programs can be well achieved, as well as increase in funds for defense and border security.
However, a bill – the preference of Trump – and to choose to pass it by harmony, the Republican was forced to take a hacket for programs dependent by millions of Americans, including their own voters.
As Edward Luce noted In the Financial Times, Republicans have already been below this road. In 2005, former President Bush wanted to privatize social security, and the upcoming anger contributed to the Democrats to get 31 seats in the House and five seats in the Senate in the 2006 midnight.
However, the results of Republican can be even more clear at this time than 20 years ago. Bush’s attempt was eventually abolished, but this bill has already been signed.
Finally, the exact effect of “Big, Beautiful Bill” will come out only in next November. But right now, it is not well for Republican. If millions of American social security trap, it is for this reason they will take their anger to the party that pushed for such a result.
Douglas e. Scone and Carley Coperman are pollutants and partners with Public Opinion Company Scone Cooperman Research in New York. He is the co-writer of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”
