Supercopa Clasico: Are Barcelona favorites vs. Real Madrid?

barcelona And real Madrid meet for another classico with their first domestic trophy of the season in the Spanish Supercopa final in Saudi Arabia on Sunday. ,being shown live on ABC,

Holders Barça enter the final with a resounding win win 5-0 against athletic club on Wednesday, while Madrid nervously joined them 24 hours later win 2-1 Above Atletico Madrid,

This is the fourth consecutive year that the two teams have met at this level and for both clubs it is behind LaLiga, the Champions League and The League. copa del rey On the list of priorities, this has recently proven to be a good marker of what is to come in the second half of the season.

The last four winners of the competition – Madrid (2022 and 2024) and Barça (2023 and 2025) – have all used Supercopa success as a springboard to winning La Liga.

ESPN’s Sam Marsden and Alex Kirkland preview the key sporting events at King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah.


Is classico Momentum back again with Barça?

Barça dominated Madrid last season, winning all four meetings between the teams as they claimed a domestic treble under Hansi Flick, but the pendulum briefly swung back in Madrid’s favor in October when Xabi Alonso scored in his first match. classico Since taking over as coach, a 2–1 win helped Los Blancos move five points clear at the top of La Liga.

However, the situation has already changed since then. While Madrid have endured the heat and cold, Barca have won nine in a row in all competitions and have opened up a four-point lead at the top of the table. There remains a feeling that they are not playing their best football – Flick was critical of the performance in last weekend’s 2-0 win espanyol – but the five-goal win over Athletic in midweek was a demonstration of how powerful they can be in attack when things go right.

It is no coincidence that Barcelona’s improvement has coincided with the return of key players. RafinhaThe man who scored twice against Athletic has added energy and intensity to the front line; Pedri Have restored control of the midfield; And john garcia He made some incredible saves when he was breached from behind. Only with chronic absentees Gavi And Andreas Christensen Coming off Sunday’s game, Barca will go into the final not only in their best form of the season, but with a far healthier squad than they have in months. — Marsden


Alonso is under pressure. What would victory or defeat mean for him?

Madrid’s coaches are evaluated on the basis of trophies and this is the first time this season. “This is the tournament we are playing in, so it is most important,” Alonso said on Wednesday before the semi-finals. “During the season, this is the fourth [most important trophy] But it’s what we have right now, so it’s an absolute priority.”

After the 2-0 home defeat, Alonso thought he was going to be sacked Celta Vigo On 7 December. Since then, and damage to Manchester City After this, five consecutive wins have stabilized his position to some extent. But in all those wins – even last weekend’s 5-1 win real daughtersAnd the Supercopa semi against Atlético – the team has, to a greater or lesser extent, been unconvincing.

Lost 5-2 last year barcelona The Supercopa final was the beginning of the end for Alonso’s predecessor Carlo Ancelotti. This was not Madrid’s first or last defeat against Barcelona last season, but it was perhaps the most dramatic. The way the game slipped away from them and they conceded four goals in quick succession left Madrid completely behind.

In a showpiece final played in front of an international crowd, something the club would never tolerate. Ancelotti’s eventual departure was inevitable. A similar performance and result on Sunday will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, for Alonso to recover from. This does not mean that his firing will be immediate; But Alonso will need to overhaul the second half of the season and win major trophies to avoid the same fate. –Kirkland


kilian mbappe Is back in the Madrid team. What changes occur with his return?

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Will Kylian Mbappe play against Barcelona in the Supercopa final?

Gemma Soler and Craig Burley discuss reports about Kylian Mbappe potentially joining the Real Madrid squad to face Barcelona in the Supercopa final.

Coach Alonso dropped the bombshell, almost as an afterthought, in his post-match press conference late Thursday night. “Kilian will travel tomorrow,” he said, smiling. “The feelings are good, and like any other player, if he is in the team, he can play.” mbappe’s left knee sprain Kept him out of Madrid’s first two matches of 2026. We don’t know yet what condition he is in; But if we take Alonso at his word, he is available on Sunday.

This can only be good news for real Madrid,

Mbappe is the best player of Madrid. His 29 goals this season confirm this. yes, 21 years old gonzalo garcia stepped up with a hat-trick Against Betis last weekend, but against Atletico, the 21-year-old was quite quiet, not taking a single shot in 90 minutes. Mbappé will make Madrid more dangerous, and so will his record against them barcelona — after a poor start to last season, when he Caught out a career high eight times Their first meeting is exciting.

Mbappe has six goals in five classicosHe opened the scoring in last year’s Supercopa final, when five minutes in the game briefly appeared to be going in Madrid’s favour,

Mbappe alone has not made Madrid a good team this season. But in LaLiga he has scored 44% of the team’s goals. His potential return gives Alonso good reason to smile. –Kirkland


Flick blessed with aggressive headache

For large parts of this season, Flick’s team have largely picked themselves in the face of injuries, but that is no longer the case.

The German coach now has the luxury of choosing from a host of attacking players who have performed well at times in recent weeks, meaning he is able to summon game-changers from the bench.

it was substitute fermin lopez, dani olmo And Robert Lewandowski who turned the game in the opposite direction espanyol Last week. There was no need for a bench bench against Athletic, as Barça were 4–0 up at half-time, but if that had been the case, Flick Olmo could have chosen between Lewandowski. marcus rashford And Lamin Yamal To speed things up.

Yamal was only on the bench due to a stomach problem during preparations for that semi-final. He is expected to return to the team against Madrid. spain The winger leads the team with 19 goal contributions this season. He is one of six players with more than 10 goal contributions – Rashford, ferran torres, firmin, Rafinha And Lewandowski has also crossed this figure.

So, who will Flick choose? classicoRafinha and Yamal are most likely to start out wide, with Ferran and Lewandowski competing for the No. 9 role and either Fermin or Olmo right behind them. Raphinha has also played in the number 10 role at times, giving Rashford the opportunity to start at left back.

Flick’s abundance of options will help Alonso anticipate the start. — Marsden


Can Madrid’s makeshift defense cope?

In the last 20 minutes against Atlético, as they defended a precarious 2–1 lead, Madrid’s backline was as follows: federico valverde, Aurélien Tchoumeni, alvaro carreras, Ferland MendyOr in other words: a midfielder, another midfielder, a left-back playing centre-back, and a perpetually injured left-back making his third appearance of the season, Somehow, it worked and Madrid held on to win, But it wasn’t exactly exciting before classico Where to deal with Madrid’s defense RafinhaYamal et al.

Antonio RudigerThose who had insisted on playing on Thursday despite injury, it seems certain that they will miss the final. dean huijsen Was not considered fit enough to play a single minute against Atlético. eder militao Is out for a long period of time. Raul Asencio Should be available, but it is unclear who will be his partner at centre-back. It could be Carreras, who has performed well in the position when called upon, or Tchoumeni, whose deployment has freed up a position in midfield.

Either way, Madrid’s most important player on Sunday is likely to be a man accustomed to working miracles in finals: the goalkeeper. Thibaut Courtois, –Kirkland


Has Barça improved their weak defence?

Technically the numbers suggest barcelona The defense has improved, but it is too early to say there has been any dramatic change. They have conceded 20 goals in 19 LaLiga games, more than any other team in the top five, and conceded 11 goals in six Champions League matches as teams have repeatedly found joy behind their high line.

However, they are on a run of five consecutive clean sheets in all competitions for the first time since 2020. They haven’t had a long streak since 2016, when they went eight games without conceding a goal. Perhaps they have benefited from stability in the backline after all. In general, Flick has preferred a back four Jules Conde, pau cubarsi, gerard martin And alejandro balde However, in recent weeks eric garcia Came in for Martin against Athletic and should remain there against Madrid.

The biggest change, however, is the return of goalkeeper Garcia from injury. During those five games – Garcia played four; Marc-Andre Ter Stegen One–Barca’s xG vs is 5.57. This has mainly been earned in the last three matches against them Villarreal (1.69) espanyol Garcia has been great when (1.6) and athletic 1.75. his defense pere milla Had one of the saves of the season against Espanyol.

“I want to thank Joan for that performance,” said a relieved Flick after Barca secured the late winner. — Marsden


Predictions?

kirkland, of October classico The win should have been the start of something for Madrid; Instead, it now feels like a false dawn. Unless Madrid perform much better than on Thursday, they will be soundly beaten. Barcelona 3-1 Madrid.

Marsden: When? classicos They have such a one-sided feeling before they start, it’s not unusual for them to go the other way, but it’s hard to have the opposite happen here. This fixture has produced a lot of goals recently, so let’s hope for more of the same. Barcelona 4-3 Madrid.

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