Representative Mickey Sherrill’s (D-N.J.) victory in the New Jersey governor’s race on Tuesday presented a much-needed opportunity for Democrats, raising questions about what the election results might mean for both parties in next year’s midterms.
Sheryl defeated the republicans Jack Ciattarelli, in his third run for Governor of New Jersey, was seeking to link his opponent to President Trump and nationalize the race as a New Jersey congresswoman. Sherrill looked to make the race largely a referendum on Trump, while Ciattarelli aimed to make it a referendum on Democratic control of the state in a race dominated by affordability and high energy costs.
Despite a tough competition between the two candidates, Sherrill was able to secure an early victory and solidify Democratic control of the Governor’s Mansion for the next four years.
Here’s what the New Jersey governor’s race could mean for the 2026 midterms:
Sherrill’s victory underlines Democratic enthusiasm
Sherrill’s victory Tuesday underlined the palpable Democratic enthusiasm that became a theme throughout the night as the party also won competitive elections for Virginia governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general in addition to two key spots on the Georgia Public Service Commission.
The race for New Jersey governor became increasingly tight in its final stages, with surveys from Emerson College Polling, PIX11 and The Hill also showing the contest as a toss-up.
despite this earlier concerns Black and Hispanic voters would not turn out in the numbers that Democrats wanted, and against the backdrop of key elections where the party won by only one point statewide, Sherrill’s victory calmed some of those concerns, especially as Decision Desk headquarters announced the race only 13 minutes after the polls closed.
Sherrill’s victory is all the more notable because New Jersey had not elected a governor from the same political party three consecutive times since 1961. Issues of affordability and high energy costs were the top issues in the state where Democrats controlled both the governor’s mansion and the state legislature.
Ciattarelli, meanwhile, was facing the traditional challenge associated with the president’s party in power during the off-year and midterm elections. New Jersey has also never elected a Republican for governor even though the party has controlled the White House since 1985.
Trump is an asset to the Democrats
Tuesday’s polls showed that there is no better motivator for Democrats than Trump, even if he isn’t on the ballot.
While Trump kept some distance from the New Jersey gubernatorial race, holding two telerallies for Ciattarelli before the election, the president still looms large in the race.
Sherrill suggested that Ciattarelli would not be able to keep up with the president if elected governor and the race was nationalized, especially after the Trump administration’s decision to halt funding for the Gateway Project.
Ciattarelli suggested that having a relationship with the president would benefit the state, unlike Sherrill. has offered some areas Where he has differences with the President and his administration.
Although both Trump and outgoing Governor Phil Murphy (D) struggled with underwater approval ratings in the state – and even as Republicans tried to make the election a referendum on Democratic control in the state – it was not enough to tip the scales for Republicans as Democrats built on anti-Trump sentiment.
New Jersey raises warning signs for GOP
Democrats’ victories in New Jersey and across the country are raising clear warning signs for the GOP as the party already anticipates a challenging midterm environment.
Republicans had hoped that recent polls — including Murphy’s narrow 3-point win in 2021 and former Vice President Kamala Harris’s win in the state by just 6 points in November — were indicators of changing political winds in New Jersey.
But Sherrill’s victory is proof that Democrats are still a force in the state, with early signs suggesting that Democrats may have overturned Ciattarelli’s victory in the 2021 race. With nearly 90 percent of the votes reported as of Tuesday night, Sherrill leads Ciattarelli by about 8 points in Cumberland County, which Ciattarelli won by 12 points four years ago.
Sherrill also looked set to win Gloucester, Atlantic and Morris counties, which all went Republican in 2021.
Sherrill’s victory gives boost to moderate Democrats
Liberal Democrats were the clear winners Tuesday night, with Sherrill and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) both winning their respective gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia.
The New Jersey gubernatorial victory is also particularly notable for moderates because Sherrill bested several progressives, including Newark Mayor Ras Baraka and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, who placed second and third, respectively, during the Democratic primary in June.
But the overall picture for Democrats may be a little more complicated, as New York City overwhelmingly elected Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani for mayor over former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, raising questions about which approach the party should take as it seeks to make more inroads among voters in next year’s midterms.
