Race for the AFC’s No. 1 seed: Sizing up Patriots, Broncos

In memory of 2012-15, denver broncos And new England Patriots They are breaking away from the pack in the race for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Both enter this weekend with 11-2 records and are riding a 10-game winning streak.

Four regular season games remain to determine who gets the only bye into the first round.

“You’re in a position where they can see that if you’re able to get a No. 1 seed, you finish a game and that’s important,” Broncos head coach Sean Payton said when asked about players’ scoreboard-watching around the NFL.

In addition to the bye, the No. 1 seed also means home-field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs.

Peyton remembers its significance from his time New Orleans Saints‘Chief coach. He recalled how his team was the No. 2 seed in the playoffs after the 2006 regular season and had to travel to cold Soldier Field for the NFC Championship Game on January 21, where the Saints lost 39–14. Chicago Bears,

“I remember feeling after that tough loss, ‘We’ve got to find a way to play this game at home,'” Payton said. “Each week, we build equity on where we are…and these guys are smart enough to know what each of these games means.”

Payton then received the No. 1 seed twice in 2009 and 2018. New Orleans won Super Bowl XLIV Above indianapolis colts and lost to finish the 2009 season Los Angeles Rams in overtime 2018 NFC Championship Game In controversial fashion,

In New England, head coach Mike Vrabel has highlighted a narrow approach.

“We’re just trying to play for the championship with everything we have available to us this week,” he said, a reference to what would happen if the Patriots beat the visiting buffalo bill But sunday, They will win the AFC East for the first time since 2019.

If they accomplish that feat, perhaps their attention will turn more decisively to their chances at a No. 1 seed. This would be in line with what Vrabel said when he was hired as the 16th head coach of the franchise in January.

“Our goal will be to win the AFC East, host home playoff games, and compete for a championship,” Vrabel said that day.

ESPN Patriots reporter Mike Reiss and Broncos reporter Jeff Legvold take a look at each team’s remaining schedule, the keys to clinching the No. 1 seed, the biggest odds and tiebreaker scenarios.

Go to a section:
Schedule , Number , three keys
biggest obstacle , tie breaker , Final No. 1 Seed

remaining programs

broncos

Week 15: sunday vs green Bay Packers (9-3-1), 4:25 PM ET, CBS

Week 16: 21st December vs jacksonville jaguars (9-4), 4:05 PM ET, Fox

Week 17: December 25th kansas city chiefs (6-7), 8:15 PM ET, Prime Video

Week 18: 3rd or 4th January vs los angeles chargers (9-4), tbd

Combined record of the Broncos’ remaining opponents:33-18-1

Patriot

Week 15: 14 December vs buffalo bill (9-4), 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Week 16: on 21st december Baltimore Ravens (6-7), 8:20 pm ET, NBC

Week 17: on 28th december New York Jets (3-10), 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Week 18: 3rd or 4th January vs miami dolphins (6-7), tbd

Combined record of the Patriots’ remaining opponents:24-28

behind the numbers

Percentage chance of each team getting the No. 1 seed and other achievements, according to ESPN football power index,

broncos

No. 1 seed: 45.6% Win the AFC West: 86%

Make the AFC Championship Game: 39.6% | Make the Super Bowl: 9.9%

Patriot

No. 1 seed: 38.4% Win AFC East: 81.5%

Make the AFC Championship Game: 33.8% | Make the Super Bowl: 6.6%

Three keys to the No. 1 seed for each team

broncos

Keep bo nix In his current groove: since a fade win 10-7 Above las vegas raiders In Week 10, after which Payton called the game plan “terrible”, the coaches and the Knicks have found a better rhythm. He has found a groove by using “songs he knows by heart”, Payton’s words, for plays he knows the Knicks can perform well. Over the last three games, the Knicks have completed 70% of their passes, ranking 11th in QBR and fifth in completion percentage above expectation. Through the first 10 weeks, the Knicks completed 60.9% of their passes, ranking 18th in QBR and 28th in CPOE.

Keep the heat on the opposing QB: The Broncos have four first-round QBs left on the schedule – jordan love, trevor lawrence, patrick mahomes And Justin Herbertdefensive tackle zach allen and edge runner Nick Bonitto As for the Broncos’ defense, they currently rank first and fifth in the league in QB hits, respectively. Leads the league in sacks With 55. Denver has sacked opposing quarterbacks on 10.4% of their dropbacks, which is also tops in the NFL. The Broncos also lead the NFL in third-down defense (30.9%) and red zone defense (40%).

Clear the mess: The most obvious things that could derail the Broncos are special teams play and a penchant for penalties. Denver has seen some progress in both areas, especially on special teams. Marvin Mims Jr.returned a punt for a touchdown this last sundayAnd Will Lutz Has kicked several game-winning field goals. But the Broncos are still the third-most penalized team in the league — after spending most of the season ranked No. 1 or No. 2 — and have the most penalized defense in the NFL. , legwold

Patriot

drake mayEfficiency of: Vrabel has highlighted quarterback efficiency as one of the keys to New England’s victory. Mays leads the NFL in completion percentage (71.5%) and completion percentage higher than expected (8.2%). He is third in QBR (72.2). Additionally, the Patriots have had six games with a different leading receiver, which reflects Mays’ knack for spreading wealth. With that accuracy, it’s a powerful package. If Maye continues to perform at a high level, the Patriots will be tough to beat.

More marcus jones Magic: Jones has five non-offensive TDs since 2022, including two punt return touchdowns (87 and 94 yards) and a 33-yard interception return for a touchdown this season. This is the second-highest performance in the NFL over that period, behind dallas cowboys towards the corner Daron Bland (Six). The ability to score “bonus points” has helped the Patriots play games on their terms, while also providing a spark in adverse situations (such as overcoming slow starts). week 12 win over Bengal) – which will be needed in the homestretch.

Tighten Run D: The Patriots held opposing running backs to 50 or fewer yards in each of the first nine games of the season, but some cracks are starting to appear. Since Week 10, New England has allowed 4.9 yards per carry, which ranks 29th in the NFL. This is somewhat similar to a defensive tackle. milton williams going on injured reserve With an ankle injury. Williams is not eligible to return until Week 17 against the Jets. , reece

The biggest hurdle for each team

Broncos: Their defense is one of the best in the league, so they don’t need elite attacking play, but they will need more efficiency when they have the ball. They rank 19th in points per drive this season (2.08) and 27.6% of their possessions have ended in three-and-out, the third-highest frequency in the NFL. The Broncos are 9-2 in one-score games, which shows their potential, but they will need a little more from their offense against quality playoff opponents. , legwold

Patriot: Red area. The Patriots’ offense is on a drought inside the 20-yard line, and has only scored one touchdown in its last six trips. Overall, he has scored a total of 24 touchdowns inside the red zone on 44 trips (not including game-ending nil-downs or field goals at the end of the half). Defensively, they rank last in the NFL in touchdown percentage (73%), with opponents scoring 19 touchdowns in 26 trips. One positive is that the frequency of opposing red zone trips is lower, as the Patriots give up an average of only two red zone possessions per game. , reece

break tiebreaker

For teams that do not play in the same division or play head-to-head, the first tiebreaker is conference record, then record against common opponents. Regarding the conference record tiebreaker, the Broncos and Patriots will have the same conference record if they have the same overall records and Denver beats the Packers. on sundayIf the Broncos lose to the Packers and the season ends tied with the Patriots, Denver will have the better record against AFC opponents and will win the tiebreaker,

Talking about common opponents, the Broncos and Patriots had five common opponents this season – Raiders, Titans, Jets, Bengals and Giants. The only loss the Patriots suffered to any team in any of these games was to the Raiders. in week 1Since there is no common opponent left on their schedule, the Broncos would win that tiebreaker if both teams finished with the same record, , legwold

Last time each team was the No. 1 seed…

Broncos: 2015. Denver finished 12-4, earning the AFC’s No. 1 seed over the Patriots. 30-24 overtime win Home field advantage over New England in Week 12 was crucial for Denver 20-18 AFC Championship Game win Over the patriots. broncos won super bowl 50 Above carolina pantherswith von miller Winning MVP. , legwold

Patriot: 2017. The Patriots had a 13–3 record and defeated the Titans in the divisional round (35-14) before defeating the Jaguars by a narrow margin in the AFC Championship Game (24-20This set up a date with the Eagles Super Bowl LIITom Brady threw for 505 yards in a heartbreaking 41-33 loss, which raised a question that many in New England are still asking: Why didn’t coach Bill Belichick play cornerback malcolm butler On the defense? , reece