Mike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on “Fantasy Football Now” and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.
Multiple Authors
There are hundreds of props listed for Super Bowl LX, which takes place Sunday at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California.
Using his proprietary methodology, which include Shadow Reports and Expected Touchdowns, Mike Clay has projected the entire game for you, including a full Super Bowl box score projection. From there, he identified the prop bets whose odds offer the best value based on the probability they’ll hit either the over or the under. The best values are presented below in five tiers, from the best to the borderline.
Please note: In the cases where a lean does not match a projection, it is due to the odds being offered for the result. Projections shown are a median of a range of possibilities, which are then evaluated against the implied probability of the odds to identify value.
The Patriots linebacker is averaging 2.8 assists per game this season and has fallen short of four helpers in 12 of his 18 outings. That includes both of his last two games, as he totaled three assists in the two playoff games. He registered one assist against Denver in the AFC championship despite playing a larger role than usual (his 72% snap share was his fourth highest of the season). Seattle has allowed 7.53 assists per game to opposing linebackers, which is seventh lowest in the league.
New England’s every-down safety is averaging 1.8 assists per game this season, having fallen short of three in 14 out of 18 games, including five in a row. He has had exactly two in all three playoff games, despite playing on 100% of the team’s defensive snaps. Seattle has allowed 5.0 assists per game to opposing safeties, which is ninth lowest in the league.
Seattle’s top off-ball linebacker, Jones has played on a hefty 93% of the team’s defensive snaps this season. Despite the big usage, Jones has fallen short of five assists in 10 out of 17 games, including four straight. In fact, Jones has a total of only seven assists across the team’s three playoff games. New England has allowed 7.45 assists per game to opposing linebackers, which is sixth lowest in the league.
Darnold checks in with a projection of 18.0 completions, so we have a decent gap here. The veteran passer has reached 21 completions in only seven of 19 games this season, averaging 18.9 per game during those outings. New England, meanwhile, has allowed 20.3 completions per game this season, but that mark dips to 17.8 over its last 10 games. In fact, the last quarterback to complete 21 passes against New England was Baker Mayfield, back in Week 10. Seattle operates a run-first scheme, and offenses tend to lean toward the run against New England, which suggests the under is the play, even in what projects as a competitive game script.
Holani is far from a household name, but my projection for Seattle’s change-of-pace back behind Kenneth Walker III implies a +379 anytime TD line. Fresh off IR last week, Holani quietly handled three carries and four targets on 23 snaps. We saw him in the No. 2 role back in Week 3 as well, and he was used similarly, totaling 10 carries and two targets on 20 snaps.
Holani, a 2024 undrafted free agent with only one career touchdown, is certainly a long shot, but it’s fairly evident that Seattle does not intend to use Walker as an every-down player. In fact, Walker has yet to clear 19 carries or 64% of the snaps in any single game this season. The Patriots’ run defense is tough, but offenses tend to scheme toward a run-first approach against them and we’ve seen them surrender RB touchdowns in bunches at times this season, including seven allowed during a four-game stretch spanning Weeks 13-17.
My projection suggests this one should be at +107, so we’re getting some nice value on New England’s lead back. That “lead back” designation became very evident in the AFC Championship Game against Denver when Stevenson played on 94% of offensive snaps, the second most of his career, while handling 25 carries and a pair of targets. Stevenson has yet to find the end zone during the playoffs, but that’s somewhat unlucky, as he has 58 touches and the team’s lone goal-line carry over its three games.
The Seahawks haven’t allowed many RB touchdowns this season, but backs have generated a ton of yardage against them lately (124.4 yards per game over their last seven outings). Kyren Williams found the end zone against them last week, and backs tend to be targeted against them at a high rate (a league-high 127 RB targets during the regular season). Don’t get me wrong, this is a tough matchup, but that’s why we’re getting +145 on a player who is a near lock to get the rock when New England approaches the goal line.
Seattle Seahawks vs.
New England Patriots
and subject to change.
