PONTE VEDRA BEACH, FLORIDA – Whether you believe in the concept of the Players Championship as a major or not, one of the biggest weeks on the PGA Tour has arrived and the stories are abundant.
defending champion Rory McIlroy and world number 1 Scotty Scheffler Both are trying to add a third player’s title to their resume. brooks koepka Playing with its first players since 2022. The golf course is seeing more pressure than in recent years, with many more players competing for a career-defining victory.
Here are five stories we’re watching at TPC Sawgrass this week.
1. Is Scotty the overwhelming favorite this week?
Paolo Ughetti: The numbers say yes and maybe they should. And yet, if you’ve watched any of Scheffler’s golf during the last three tournaments, you’ll know it’s not that simple. In all three events, Scheffler struggled on Thursday, and he appeared more frustrated than ever with his play last week at Bay Hill when he threw the ball in the water after missing a putt.
The fact that a T-24 finish could be considered bad for Scheffler tells you all you need to know about how high his floor is, and this week should be no different. While Scheffler downplays his struggles on the microphone and wears it on his sleeve on the golf course, the reality is that this week has been tailor-made for him – he’s already won this event twice and TPC Sawgrass demands great play. This is the catch.
Scheffler’s iron play hasn’t been his usual, all-time, all-encompassing self lately. In fact, after leading the PGA Tour in strokes gained scoring for three consecutive seasons, Scheffler is ranked 88th so far this season. It’s hard to believe that this will continue for a player of his caliber and this week is as good a week as any for him to become an unbeatable force again.
Mark Schlabach: With McIlroy potentially sidelined by a back injury, I’d say Scheffler is a tremendous favorite.
After becoming the first golfer to win consecutive Players Championship titles in 2023 and ’24, Scheffler could join jack nicklaus As the only three-time winner in history. (After finishing first in 2019 and ’25, McIlroy can also achieve this if he plays.)
As Paolo said, Scheffler has looked semi-human the last few weeks. A slow start in 2026 has troubled them; His scoring average over the last three rounds (67.0) is about 3.5 strokes better than the first (70.4) this season. He doesn’t seem to have any answers as to why he’s been slow out of the gate.
However, getting off to a fast start at TPC Sawgrass has been no problem for Scheffler, who is at 13 under through the first three holes of his career.
two-time major winner collin morikawa Very excited and playing with a lot of confidence, and is a winner of the Tour Championship tommy fleetwood Still playing well.
But if Rory isn’t around I’ll roll with Scheffler again.
2. Apart from Rory and Scottie, which other player will you be watching most closely this week?
Ughetti: It may be old news by now, but Brooks Koepka’s experience is still interesting, especially this week. This is the first time Koepka is participating on tour with all the top players in the world. And while the PGA Tour doesn’t attempt to more subtly transition players into a major-like event, it will be curious to see how Koepka prepares for the challenge as he typically does with major events.
This course doesn’t fit them like a glove. In seven starts, he has never cracked the top-10, and missed the cut the last time he played this event in 2022. And then that’s how he played the famous par-3 17th hole. In 20 rounds at TPC Sawgrass, Koepka is 20-over par on the hole.
“That 17th hole has inspired me for years,” Koepka said. “I’ve played good rounds here; it’s kind of a bugaboo that always gets to me.”
Although he has struggled in his first two starts on the PGA Tour, Koepka showed glimpses of his old self when he shot a 6-under 65 in the final round of the PGA National a few weeks ago. However, this week will be a truer measure of where his game stands among the best on tour.
Schlabach: two-time major winner xander schaufele He was showing signs of his past championship form before slipping in the last 36 holes at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, in which he finished tied for 24th at 2 under.
Recovering from a painful rib injury that derailed his 2025 season, Schauffele performed well when he tied for 19th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and seventh at the Genesis Invitational.
Schauffele has twice been runner-up at The Players, in his first start in 2018 and again in 2024. His short game has been exceptional at the Stadium Course – he ranks second in strokes gained around the green since 2018 (0.66).
Will we start to see the same Schauffele that dominated the game in 2024?
3. Sleeper for this week?
Ughetti: How about another past winner? rickie fowler He won this competition 10 years ago and has gone through many ups and downs since then, but his game seems to be on trend so far this season.
Fowler has made five starts and his worst finish at Riviera is T-28. He had four top-20 finishes and a T-9 finish at Bay Hill last week. He ranks 17th in strokes gained so far this season and, except for his play around the green (157th), Fowler is playing some of his best golf in recent years. A lot has changed since he won at TPC Sawgrass in 2015, but it could be a good week for him based on his experience.
Schlabach: I’m not sure whether the former Players Championship winner and 28th-ranked golfer in the world qualifies as a sleeper, but Si Woo Kim He has a very good track record at TPC Sawgrass and is hitting the ball as well as anyone this season.
The Korean golfer has played seven times already this season and has finished in the top 15 in five. He was runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines and tied for third at the WM Phoenix Open.
As of this week, Kim ranks second on tour in strokes gained: approach (1.198) and tee to green (1.947). He already has 23 rounds under par in 2026.
Kim, who won the 2017 Players Championship at age 21, knows her way around the Stadium Course.
jake knappRanked 42nd in the world, he was playing brilliantly before withdrawing from the API last week due to illness. He finished in the top 11 in each of his first five starts, including a solo sixth-place finish at the Genesis Invitational.
There is nothing so far in 2026 that Knapp has not done right. He is second in strokes gained: total (2.183) and fourth in putting (1.095). He also ranks seventh in driving distance (319.4 yards), although accuracy from the tee (58.6%) has been an issue at times.
4. How do you think the course will go this week?
Ughetti: After hanging out at TPC Sawgrass for a few days now, it’s clear that the Tour is making a concerted effort to make this course a little tougher than in recent years. rough is thick – justin rose This was confirmed when he said his caddy told him it was half an inch longer – and the green was showing some stronger bounce so far.
I saw on Tuesday Windham Clark Hit a sand wedge on the 12th green and the ball bounced waist high before landing back on the surface. on monday, adam schenck Hit two balls to the right side of 18 and had trouble finding them among the Mughals. Trimming around the green will be more difficult and it appears that some of the collars around the water have also been cut down a bit.
At the risk of using the phrase “major championship test”, it appears we will see a tougher Sawgrass this year than others. And although there is rain in the forecast for Thursday, it doesn’t look like it will be significant enough to really change conditions.
5. Prediction for the winner?
Ughetti: give me ludvig aberg. The T20 finals at Bay Hill (T3) and Riviera last week were promising and he appears to have found a rhythm after a poor start to the season on the West Coast.
With this course having a potentially tough game with tight greens and longer rough than usual, a guy like Aberg who hits it very high and very straight is poised to do well. If his putter can catch some heat (it’s been the worst part of his game so far this season), look for him in contention on Sunday.
Schlabach: When in doubt, I’ll go with the golfer who has been most impressive over the past three seasons. Yes, Scheffler’s ball-striking hasn’t been up to his historical standards, but the guy deserves a few weeks off every now and then.
Scheffler will join the Golden Bears on Sunday as the only three-time winners in The Players Championship history — and he will complete a career Grand Slam at the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in June.
