The Congress has entered the eighth day of the federal bandh on Wednesday and no party has left even an inch behind and there is no way of the solution.
But if the law makers are expected to reopen the government at any time, then something will have to be given, and this movement will probably be the result of a party – or external forces that pressurize both to break the deadlock.
This has been the situation in the long shutdowns of previous years, when many external factors – from economic sirens to public frustration – have forced law makers to leave the ground and take their policy battle to the second day.
There are five pressure points here that can help break the existing deadlock.
Public sentiment
One of the most recycled quotes on Capital Hill is credited to Abraham Lincoln: “Public spirit is everything.” The problem in these early stages of the shutdown battle is that the decision has still not come as to where this feeling will reach.
That uncertainty has inspired both sides to think deeply, while they are waiting for more concrete evidence of which side is suffering the defect of the blame. But those choices are coming, and if history gives no signal, they would be a powerful factor in forcing at least one side to change the position to eliminate the shutdown.
This was the situation in 2013, when the approval rating of the Republican seeking to cancel Obamcare was observed – and left its campaign after 16 days without achieving any concession. Similar dynamics controlled the shutdown of 2018 and 2019 – the longest in history – when the Republican border agreed to reopen the government without securing the money of the wall, which they insisted.
Recently CBS survey found that 39 percent of voters blame Trump and Republican for shutdown; 30 percent of Congressmen blame democrats; And 31 percent consider both sides equally guilty.
AHarvard/Harris PollIt has also been discovered that more responders have blamed the Republican (53 to 47 percent), but about two-thirds believe that the Democrats should accept the Economic Care Act to accept the GOP’s Stopgap Funding Bill without a solution to the premium subsidy.
The ambiguity of those feelings has increased the partisan allegations and counter -allegations – and has encouraged both sides to remain in line until a clear picture is revealed.
Air traffic control issues
A shutdown of 35 days ended after the travel closure and lack of employees of air traffic controllers about seven years ago – and the trouble is already starting again.
On Monday, many flights were delayed and canceled due to the ill traffic controllers being ill, causing concern that the vengeance of what happened in 2019 could be resumed.
“We all must be worried,” the Senator Mike Rounds (RSD) said, which was part of the informal rank-end-film talks about the possible solution last week.
TSA workers and Air Traffic Controllers are considered all necessary employees, the Transport Department has announced that more than 13,000 controllers are ready to work without salary during this shutdown.
Many big airports including Denver and Newark were delayed due to those who called sick people. The Hollywood Barabank Airport went on Monday without any air traffic controller for about six hours.
Like a record-setting 2019 shutdown, Democrats are causing problems for Trump and Republican on the issue. Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) told reporters that he and other local officials are organizing a press event at Baltimore/Washington International Thugud Marshal Airport on Wednesday to highlight the growing issue.
“It had a direct impact on people’s abilities to visit across the country,” van Holen said about the 2019 shutdown issue. “Donald Trump closed the government in his first term, and he needs to end the shutdown finished in the second term.”
Stalled salary
The central, deciding factors of any shutdown are cut of federal services and silence of hundreds of federal employees. Some of them are considered “necessary”, which means they still have to come to work, while others are discharged, which means they will stay at home. But the two groups share unpleasant conditions of non -payment of the government until the reopening of the government.
This reality will appear on October 10, when the first round of federal salary check will not be released. Of course, the most immediate effect has on workers and their families who have to find alternative methods to pay and live bills.
But the pain will also resonate in a broad economy, as federal employees live at home and avoid regular daily shopping – lunch, cab, haircuts – which can affect local economies.
The number is very high.
The White House Council of Economic Advisors have estimated that the country’s GDP will decrease by $ 15 billion every week in Shutdown.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La) warned on Tuesday, “This is causing serious economic losses as a result.” “One month shutdown will not only have to go on leave for 750,000 federal citizen employees, but will also have more than 43,000 unemployed Americans in the entire economy, because the same effect is, a wavy impact, which is in the private sector.”
In a general shutdown, workers on leave get the previous salary of the days ruined during the deadlock, which delays economic activities. But due to Trump’s budget office threatening to stop the previous salary of some employees, now that customary practice is also under question. Other people, Trump said, will be completely removed.
This combination will definitely increase an unstable economy that is already affected by a decline in consumer confidence, decline in employment generation and tariff of Trump. Whoever is guilty of financial stress, will have the most pressure to kneel in the shutdown battle.
Military salary
Payments for army members during the previous shutdown have been a continuous discussion, and this time it is also not different.
Members of the military service can miss their salary on 15 October, which is a date and center for law makers.
Johnson met with Senate Republican during the weekly policy lunch on Tuesday and later asked reporters that he was considering voting in the House on a bill to pay soldiers to pay.
Johnson said, “I am definitely ready for it. We have done it before. We want to make sure that our soldiers are paid.” He said that a GOP member has filed a law for the purpose of doing so. “As soon as we gather back, we are expecting to take action on all this.”
The chairman said that to process the pay check by October 15, the shutdown will have to end by Monday.
However, a problem for Johnson is that the House is not going to return by Monday as soon as possible and he has indicated that he will keep the House out of the session until the shutdown is over.
Democrats indicated that they too are concerned about those effects, but say that Johnson has large fish to fry.
“I am worried about all the effects of the shutdown. … Shutdown has a lot of effects,” senator Chris Murphy (D-C) said. “Mike Johnson can say anything directly from his face, when he will not bring his members here to vote on anything? How will he know what he can give, if his members are not here?”
“It is not worth listening to to say anything until the Speaker asked his people to go back and come to work.”
Health care factor
Democrats have made health care the mainstream against the Republican’s short -term expenditure bill, seeking permanent expansion of increased affordable care act (ACA) subsidy at the end of the year.
Citing the expiration date, GOP leaders have refused to negotiate the issue as part of the current debate and said that there is a time of discussion after the government’s opening.
Johnson told reporters on Tuesday, “This is a case of 31 December.”
But there are many related factors that will emerge long before January 1, and they can pressurize GOP leaders to rethink their position in the coming weeks.
For one thing, private insurance companies sponsoring plans at Obamcare Marketplace are already sending rate notices to patients to inform the next year’s costs. Those rates have been reduced on the basis of the current law – not forecasting what the Congress can do later – which means that they are being calculated under the notion that the increased subsidy, which was established during the COVID -19 epidemic, will end on January 1.
This difference is huge: If the Congress does not take action, according to KFF, the average out-off-pocket premium for patients enrolled in Obamcare Marketplace schemes will increase by 75 percent. These are the figures that patients are already getting in the mail. And facing extremely high rates, many people are likely to buy less coverage next year – or not coverage at all.
Adding the lack of time, the ACA’s open enrollment period begins on November 1, which means that the patients will start making their decisions long before the GOP leaders say that they are ready to work.
The Senate Minority Leader Chak Shumar (DN.Y.) warned this week, “The insurers are not waiting to set the rates for the next year.” “They are doing it now – not three months later.”
