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Myron Medcalf
The preseason rankings are a great glimpse into the upcoming college basketball season. But we can only measure what we see now. And that lens is limited.
However, over the next five months, some of the country’s top teams – and some mid-majors – will touch a figure that may be more indicative of a team’s ceiling: 30 wins.
Why does that number matter?
Since 2013-14 — and we’re coming off the 2019-20 season that ended without an NCAA Tournament as well as the 2020-21 campaign that included unbalanced schedules due to the pandemic — seven of the 10 national champions had won at least 28 games by the time they reached Selection Sunday. Ninety-nine teams reached the 30-win mark by the end of that season.
Teams can always get excited and turn a solid 24 or 25 win season in the NCAA Tournament into a miraculous one that ends with a national title. However, in recent college basketball history, most national champions were flirting with the 30-win mark before even cutting down the net in the final game.
Yes, we talk about Cinderellas. Very. But barring Baylor’s 28-win campaign during the pandemic in 2021, the last team to win a national title without reaching 30 wins was Arizona (25-9) in 1997. Sure, the conference schedules were mostly small, but three other teams reached 30 wins in 1996–97: Kentucky, Kansas, and Minnesota.
The following teams, in alphabetical order, have the talent, experience, depth and perhaps the program to make those coveted 30 wins a reality this season.
Some coaches resort to the analytical obsessional model adopted by Kevin Young to put their players in the best position to impact the game. As a result, the first-time collegiate head coach had the best offense in America for the latter half of the 2024–25 season. This season, he has the potential No. 1 draft pick AJ DiBantsaboiler transfer Robert Wright III and All-Big 12 first-team selection richie saunders – In short, he has all the talent he needs to build another offensive machine in Provo and improve on last season’s 26-win tally.
AJ Dibantsa and darrin peterson Could be the top pick in next summer’s NBA Draft, but fellow rookie cameron boozer – The projected No. 3 pick in June – may have the best statistical season among the trio. His 33-point (4 of 7 from 3), 12-rebound effort in an exhibition win over UCF may have been a sign of things to come. With Boozer as the anchor of a stacked freshman class and returning vets Isaiah Evans In the mix, a 30-win season is within reach for the Blue Devils.
Boogie Land (13.5 ppg, 5.1 apg at Arkansas last season) will be the starting point guard and former Princeton star xavien lee Will be the secondary ball handler for a Gators team seeking back-to-back national titles. These are two elite guards who need to be fed alex condonA preseason AP first-team All-American, and his teammates. A team that led the country with 36 wins a season ago can repeat that feat in 2025-26.
Mark Few has won 30 games eight times in his career. He would certainly rather make a trip to the Final Four than add a ninth 30-win season that falls short of that feat. Still, the Bulldogs can beat their WCC opponents before heading into the new Pac-12 next season. graham ike Has all-American potential, brayden huff Can receive top honors and transfer to GCU Tyone Grant-Foster was just preliminary injunction granted To play another year of college basketball.
At Big 12 Media Day, Kelvin Sampson said Chris Cenac Jr.(a projected draft lottery pick) and the two other top-25 recruits on his roster “are being handed their lunch every day.” This is ideal for Houston, which doesn’t typically rely on young talent. However, those rookies also have veterans like the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year joseph tugler as their anchor to continue Sampson’s 30-plus win streak into a fifth season.
Mark Pope has assembled a team with depth that they didn’t have a season ago. Injuries limited the Wildcats’ ability to still reach the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. With SEC Preseason Player of the Year Otega Oweh Pioneer and former Pitt star jaland lowe Running the show at point guard, Kentucky can build on that feat and reach over 30 wins. Final return of projected lottery pick jayden quantanceJoe, who tore his right ACL in February, will increase those odds.
mikel brown jrCould be a top five draft pick. He’s also an elite defender who can take Pat Kelsey’s program to the next level. Kelce has done more with less: Over the past three seasons (two in Charleston), the Cardinals’ second-year head coach has won at least 27 games. And this is their best roster yet. Louisville achieved 30 wins by the end of the season, albeit in the more challenging ACC.
Five of the Redhawks’ top six scorers are back, led by All-MAC first-team guard Travis Steele Peter Suder (13.7 ppg). This group won 25 games last season and ranked 15th in the nation with a 38.2% clip from beyond the arc. The next step is possible.
The Cowboys lost four starters after winning 28 games and reaching the second round of the NCAA Tournament last season. Will Wade also left, but his longtime assistant Bill Armstrong took over to add to the 58 wins earned over the previous two years. Why was McNeese able to buck that trend? Reigning Southland Player of the Year javohan garcia (12.6 ppg) is ready to prove he is one of the best mid-major players in the country.
The last time Dusty Mays surpassed the 30-win mark, he led Florida Atlantic to the 2023 Final Four. He is rejoined in his second year in Ann Arbor – following the departure of first-round draft pick Danny Wolf – with another NBA prospect: Yaxel LendeborgTwo-time American Conference Defensive Player of the Year. Reaching 30 wins in the Big Ten this season won’t be easy, but the Wolverines will only have to face Illinois, UCLA and Purdue once each in league play. Their ability to score goals may also be affected by the team’s performance at a packed Players Era Festival in Las Vegas.
Braden Smith Was a unanimous AP Preseason All-America first-team selection, and is the frontrunner to win the Wooden Award. The last time the Boilermakers had a Wooden Award winner, Zach Eddy led the team to 34 wins and an appearance in the national title game. Smith could become the third player at Purdue in four years to receive this honor. and if Trey Kaufman-RenContinues his growth (20.1 ppg last season), 30 wins, and more are possible.
zubi ejiofor Could give St. John’s back-to-back Big East Player of the Year. Last season, he was a major contributor to the team that won the hearts of New York City and earned an appearance on “The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon.” This isn’t the grand Big East of years past, and this season Ejiofor will be surrounded by the top transfer class in America — including former All-Big East forward Bryce HopkinsJoe is fully healthy after an ACL injury in 2023 – this team’s chances to win 30 games and make another run in March have increased.
Grant McCasland probably lost Darrian WilliamsA talented forward who almost helped defeat Florida in the Elite Eight. But according to those who have watched the Red Raiders practice, Lejuan Watts — the versatile 6-foot-6 transfer from Washington — could fill the void left by Williams’ departure. Watts combine with return of preseason All-American JT Toppin and rising star Christian AndersonAnd 30 wins doesn’t seem far-fetched for a team that had 28 wins last season.
aidan mahaneAfter serving as an All-WCC first-team performer at St. Mary’s for two years, his dream of starring at UConn remained unfulfilled. But he might be the best player in the Big West this season. He is on a rebooted UCSB team in a league that saw two 30-win teams (UC Irvine and UC San Diego) last season. Gauchos could be next.
We can’t guess too much from an exhibition. But the reigning Mountain West Player of the Year and Bruins newcomer donovan dent The score finished 4 of 16 and UCLA still managed to defeat a quality San Diego State team. Mick Cronin has reached 30 wins three times in his coaching career, and this group has a manageable non-conference slate to help him get there. It will also have the benefit of hosting Illinois and Purdue in its only matchups against those Big Ten contenders this season.
Dan Hurley’s quest for a three-peat was derailed by a poor start to the 2024-25 season. Still, his Huskies may pose Florida’s toughest challenge yet on the way to winning the 2025 national title. Now, alex karban Returning for its 11th season, solo ball America talks and continues his under-the-radar climb into top guards in Georgia transfer Silas Demery Jr.(13.5 ppg) joins the fold. A third 30-win campaign under Hurley seems imminent.
Takayo Siddle’s team lost four starters, but could go even better this season than its 27-win 2024-25 campaign. Improving in those circumstances is a tough task for any team. nolan hodge And noah ross — who played well in the Seahawks’ first-round loss to Texas Tech — is back. Siddle also has a strong transfer group.
