Forecast market users have placed big bets around the bombing of Iran by US and Israeli forces and profited from them.
On Polymarket, $529 million was traded on contracts linked to the time of the attack, according to bloomberg. An analysis by analytics firm BubbleMaps SA found that six newly created accounts made a $1 million profit by correctly betting that the US would attack Iran by February 28 – behavior that could indicate insider trading.
The stakes may simply reflect widespread speculation about U.S. intentions in Iran, but BubbleMaps CEO Nicholas Wyman said the dissemination of information “related to a war or conflict,” combined with PolyMarket’s anonymity, “could create incentives for informed participants to act quickly.”
In January, analytics firm Polysites also noted There has been a marked increase in speculation around the possibility that Iran’s now-deceased supreme leader Ali Khamenei will no longer take up the role at the end of March.
Responding to concerns that such bets could essentially place financial incentives over murder, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said“We do not list markets directly linked to death. When there are markets where the potential outcomes include death, we create rules to prevent people from profiting from death.” He said Kalshi would reimburse all fees from these bets.
