Pegula upsets Keys: Is this the breakthrough Pegula needs?

Melbourne, Australia — jessica pegulaThe Australian Open campaign was based on unmatched composure and smart tennis during the first three rounds. On Monday, she added something else: a statement.

world number 6 Didn’t just defeat the defending champion and close friends madison keys At Rod Laver Arena, he absolutely destroyed his game with intelligence and discipline, and showed a level of tactical nous that felt every bit like a player ready to win a Grand Slam.

The 31-year-old continued his stellar form to reach the quarter-finals with a 6-3, 6-4 win over ninth-seeded Keyes – and is yet to drop a set.

This was already the most interesting match of the day. It was set up as a conflict between Keys’ explosive, powerful shotmaking versus Pegula’s efficiency. Well, whatever came out was the same, but there was something else to tell as well. It was a lesson in how to counter an opponent’s strength with size, variation and pressure.

“[I’m] “I’m happy with the way I was able to serve, I think I’ll execute my strategy on some big, important points,” Pegula said after the match.

“I’ve been looking, hitting, moving throughout this tournament, I’ve been feeling great, and to be able to maintain that against a great player like Maddie and the defending champion was going to be a very tough task today, but I think I was still able to do it really well.”

Pegula’s intent was clear from the early games of the first set. She was always on the front foot, moving to break Keys’ serve early, and playing the service game with impeccable placement to force constant movement into her opponent, rather than allowing Keys to establish herself and gain the upper hand in points with aggressive returns.

Wide serves, angled groundstrokes, looping forehands, slices and then a flat cross-court strike. Anything that stopped the 2025 winner from finding rhythm, Pegula did.

Of course, Keys still produced a stellar production. There were moments of big serving and great performances, including several huge backhand winners down the line, which reminded everyone why her ceiling remains as high as anyone on the tour – and Pegula needs to remain consistent and not drop her level otherwise a Keys comeback will always be in danger.

But the problem for Keys was his own consistency. Very often he ended a point with a winner, or made an error due to the variety and depth of the pegula.

The numbers told the story in a very brutal way.

After 10 games, with Pegula leading 6–3, 1–0, Keys hit 14 winners but also committed 20 unforced errors. Pegula? Five and five. By the end of the match, Keys finished with 26 winners but committed 28 unforced errors. Pegula? Twelve and 13.

It was high-risk, powerful, ballstriking tennis pitted against a high-IQ, stable game, and the latter prevailed.

The second set followed almost the same pattern with Pegula maintaining a slight lead throughout the set. It was a physical edge, but also a psychological edge. She continued to absorb Keyes’ serves, she didn’t blink, she forced extra balls, hit angles and her execution under the pressure of the fourth round was immense.

Even on service, where it could be argued that the Pegula might be a little weak, there was a clear contradiction. Just one double fault compared to six.

“It was really important to focus on my serve,” Pegula said. “On the one hand, it was very hard to serve in the sun. I lost that game. And I was like, you know what… He hit some good shots, whatever. Just don’t pay so much attention to it.

“I need to stay really focused. I think just keep moving your feet, keep moving your body weight. Sometimes when you get a little nervous or are playing really well, sometimes you just relax, and it’s hard to do that against a player like Maddy, who can turn the match quickly by hitting some big forehands and winners, and all of a sudden she hits some good serves, and it’s already back to even. Is.”

There was a lot of interest in this matchup. The two are co-hosts of “The Players Box” podcast and are close friends. This was the first Women’s Australian Open match between top 10 seeded Americans. serena williams And lindsay davenport Played in the 2005 final.

Pegula has now reached the quarter-finals, playing incredibly skilled tennis that can overcome most opponents. Dropped no sets and lost only 17 games.

His consistency has been praised over the years, and rightly so, but critics often labeled him a great quarterfinal regular. Perhaps that’s appropriate – she didn’t get past that stage of a Slam until 2024.

She arrived in Melbourne still chasing that major title and the same questions were still present. When will she finally break? When will she finally claim the ultimate? Is that “very consistent”? Are there enough weapons? Is he great even without being champion?

To Pegula, it’s all just outside noise she doesn’t think about.

“I felt like if I made quarter of the Slam, that’s great,” she said. “So I never really understood the negativity towards it, or I guess it’s just the headlines, you know, how does she get past the quarters?

“I mean, the fact that I’m putting myself in that many positions I think is an accomplishment in itself. … [At the] US Open, I [made] Made it to the finals, semis, and it felt like normal. So to me it doesn’t really seem that different. I think maybe even now I’m more comfortable knowing that I’ve advanced, it doesn’t feel like, I don’t know, being in the quarters is a big deal.”

It is this kind of performance, even against the defending champions, that offers the best possible counterpoint. This kind of performance also shows that while success may not be coming, it may actually already be trending. And maybe it’s time to change the narrative.

Pegula’s task will not be easy: he will face the No. 4 seed amanda anisimova In the quarter finals. Although Pegula leads 3–0 against him, it will be the first time they play at Grand Slam level.

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