week 12 2025 nfl season Running since Texas defeated the Bills 23-19 On Thursday night. To get ready for the rest of the action, our NFL analysts have you covered with last minute preparations.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down three statistical trends that could be important this weekend. Then fantasy writer Eric Moody looks at five players who have been included under 50% espn league By Saturday and can be started in the jam. Following are two potential surprises from NFL analyst Ben Solak, NFL analyst Matt Bowen’s key matchups to watch and sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado’s favorite bets for Week 11. We also asked our NFL Nation reporters to answer questions about interesting QB situations around the league.
Will the Raiders screw up the Browns quarterback? shadure sanders‘First NFL start? are the cardinals wide receivers Michael Wilson Do you have any fantasies after a big Week 11? And what did the Seahawks quarterback do? Sam Darnold Learn from last week’s loss to the Rams?
We take a deeper look at all that, starting with an exciting performance in the initial slate.
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state trends , imaginary sleeper
potential surprise , key matching
bet of the week , QB question
Walder: Three key statistical trends that could determine the winners of Week 12
Can the Chiefs stop the Colts’ play-action attack?
Play-action is at the core of the Colts’ offense; They use it on 33% of dropbacks, second-most in the NFL. And this may be a particularly powerful lever. week 12Because the Chiefs — while generally a solid defense that ranked 13th in EPA per dropback — have struggled mightily against play-action. They rank last in EPA allowed per play-action play (0.38) and have allowed a 62% success rate against play-action, second worst among all defenses.
Will the Raiders be able to disrupt the Browns quarterback? shadure sanders,
In general, the Raiders’ pass rush is not overly dangerous. torrent runner max crosby Any offense is a threat, but Las Vegas ranks 15th in pass rush win rate (38.0%), 26th in pressure rate (27.7%) and 26th in sack rate (5.2%). But against Sanders first nfl startThey don’t have to be that great to make an impact.
Sanders’ 2024 numbers at Colorado are pretty absurd in this area: He was under pressure 39.2% of the time (17th highest out of 129 qualifiers in FBS) and took sacks on 7.5% of dropbacks (25th highest). But all this happened during the bombardment only 17.9% of the time (third lowest) and the first pressure occurred after an average of 3.1 seconds (fourth lowest).
In other words, he was exerting pressure. And against NFL defenses, he can’t do that. It will be tested in Las Vegas.
Will the Cowboys be able to throw deeper? on eagles,
Thirty-one percent of the Cowboys’ routes this season have been vertical – the highest rate in the league. This has been a vital part of their successful passing attack, as the team averages a 0.66 EPA when targeting vertical routes. (Filtering on downfield throws will often produce more extreme EPA results because usually a lot has gone right if a downfield goal is happening, but it’s still a high number.)
unfortunately for dak prescott And the Cowboys, their strength may not be ideal against the Eagles. Philly allows a league-low EPA per game when opponents target a vertical route on them (0.04).
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up – and start doing this week
tiejay spearsRB, tennessee titans (36.2% roasted)
Spears continues to serve on a committee tony pollardBut his growing role in the passing game is encouraging. He has logged at least three receptions and averaged 10.1 fantasy points over the last five games. This gives him a reliable floor, and he can see even more work this week Due to Tennessee’s injuries at wide receiver. The Seahawks also allow the fourth-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards per game to running backs.
Michael Wilsonwr, Arizona Cardinals (32.4% roasted)
Wilson has a strong start to Week 12 Marvin Harrison Jr.already ruled out Due to appendectomy. Wilson is coming off a career day of 15 receptions for 185 yards on a 31.6% target share. against the 49ersObviously serving as Arizona’s No. 1 receiver.
Although he won’t see that kind of volume every week, Wilson should continue to be heavily involved against jaguarThe matchup also works in their favor, as Jacksonville has allowed the most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 6, with Wilson lining up,
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Should fantasy managers start Michael Wilson in Week 12?
Tristan H. Cockcroft breaks down Michael Wilson’s fantasy production in Week 11 for the Cardinals.
aj barnertee, Seattle Seahawks (13.3% roasted)
Barner sees career-high 11 goals against ram In Week 11, finishing with 17.1 fantasy points. He has clearly emerged as Seattle’s No. 2 option Jackson Smith-NjigbaThe team also uses him in their version of the “tush push”, giving him a rare goal-line pass for a tight end, Barner has scored at least 11 fantasy points in two of his last three games, and he’s in a great spot against the titans,
bryce youngcubby, carolina panthers (10.8% roasted)
Young hasn’t been a reliable starter this season, but he is coming off a season-high 31.8 fantasy points against the falcons And ultimately looks in sync with the number 1 receiver tetaroa macmillanDuring this time, 49ers defense Has been weakened by injuries and is giving up the fifth-most passing yards per game. San Francisco also allowed 21.8 fantasy points to the Cardinals Jacoby Brissett In week 11Even though Wilson and Greg Dortch His only meaningful wide receiver option was.
andrei iosivuswr, cincinnati bengals (5.6% roasted)
wide receiver jammer chase‘S suspension Opens the door for Iosivas to score more goals against the patriotsHe has had three games with more than four goals this season, and in two of them he has scored at least 13 fantasy points,
Iosivas is averaging 13.5 yards per reception, so even limited volume can turn into meaningful fantasy production. The Patriots will be missing key defensive players, and their defense allows the second-most touchdowns per game to wide receivers. with t higgins Receiving most of the defensive attention, Iosivas is set to see more favorable coverage.
Solak: Don’t be surprised if…
Cardinals upset Jaguars
Arizona’s last two games have been embarrassing: 44 and 41 points each surrendered to divisional opponents. But an early first quarter deficit took their play off script, and I still believe in this Brissett-led attack against a Jaguars defense that needed turnovers to succeed. Arizona is 3-7, but that coaching staff is fighting for their jobs. I expect a disappointing home performance.
The Browns win…by running the ball. against the attackers
Everyone is excited to see Sanders, but the Browns’ path to offensive victory depends on an under-center, physical running game. Las Vegas’ defense has holes everywhere (besides edge rusher Max Crosby), and Cleveland’s running game has improved with the emergence of rookie running backs. quinshawn judkinsSanders’ best play this week may be the handoff,
Bowen: Key matchups to watch
eagles quarterback jalen hurts vs. Cowboys defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus
The Eagles need to get their pass game on the ground, and they have a blueprint to study with the Dallas defense. In week 1 matchup Between the two teams, Eberflus’ unit played zone coverage on 87.9% of Hurts’ dropbacks. And the Cowboys also played with zone discipline, going deep and pressing windows.
However, the Eagles must have answers for Hearts this weekThey can create open throwing spaces for the quarterback, as well as put him in position to cut loose on mid-field concepts,
1:19
Orlowski: What’s happening to Jalen Hurts is ‘pretty outrageous’
Dan Orlowski explains why the Eagles’ reported locker room disappointment toward Jalen Hurts is “disgraceful.”
Maldonado: My favorite bet for Week 12
indianapolis colts at +3.5 kansas city chiefs
Indie is designed to emphasize every weakness of the leads. The Colts love to run the ball, make explosive plays through play-action and direct passing early on to set up field goals. quarterback patrick mahomes Chiefs still suffer tough defeats, but this version of the team hasn’t made a wide difference.
The Colts’ EPA profile, along with their improved man coverage with cornerbacks Sauce Gardner And his ability to score on sustained drives, +3.5 is on the right side.
NFL Nation: QB Question
What did the Seahawks learn? Sam Darnoldfour-intercept performance against ram,
Darnold pointed to two issues: He needed to recognize the Rams’ shell coverage better, and he needed to get more into his stride instead of locking in on one or two targets. For example, on his second interception, the cornerback kobe durant jump Jackson Smith-NjigbaThe route ended as Darnold’s eyes never left his No. 1 receiver. Darnold’s fourth interception was on an extended play. As coach Mike McDonald pointed out, those off-platform plays have led to some of his best moments.
“You don’t want to take away the playmaker from him, but you also understand when we need to be able to move on to the next play rather than risk the ball down the field,” McDonald said. , Brady Henderson, Seahawks reporter
what should we expect to see shadure sanders Got time to work with the first team this week?
One of the main benefits of a week of practice reps is working through a game plan designed to maximize Sanders’ strengths and minimize his weaknesses. This means using concepts that highlight his downfield accuracy, but also find answers to the offense he struggles with. against the ravensWith Maxx Crosby running back, hopefully the Browns will shake up the pocket a bit and allow Sanders to get the ball out of his hands in rhythm, , Daniel Oyefusi, Browns reporter
What improvement do the saints hope for? tyler shaw After the bye week?
Shaw began to establish chemistry with the two Chris Olave And juwan johnson In panthers game Before the bye week, and he was able to open up the downfield passing game and make plays with his legs. Shaw said he is becoming more comfortable as a leader each week. The expectation is that Shaw will continue to thrive in his first home start, especially now that he has gained confidence from the 17-7 win against the Panthers. , Katherine Terrell, Saints Reporter
What will be the biggest difference in the Falcons’ game plan? cancer cousin,
Expect more throws to the running back bijan robinson And tyler alger And more targets for the tight end Kyle Pitts Sr.., especially with wide receivers drake london Outside, Michael Penix Jr.Likes to broadcast things, especially outside of numbers, Cousins is more likely to attack the middle of the field via intermediate routes, The Falcons will probably run fewer pistols, Atlanta has fired a league-high 48,8% of snaps from the pistol, more than twice as many as any other team this season, , Mark Raimondi, Falcons reporter
