NFL playoffs: Upset keys, X factors in divisional round games

divisional round of nfl playoffs It’s here, and we have four great matchups. wild-card round There were three upsets, including wins by both No. 6 seeds (49ers and Bills), marking the first time since 2020 that multiple teams seeded No. 6 or lower advanced to the divisional round.

Could we see more surprise wins this weekend? I provided the keys to victory for all four underdogs in the Divisional Round – one offensive and one defensive. It features the Bears as well as three road teams, the Bills, 49ers and Texans, who have a tough matchup against the Rams in Chicago. These winning blueprints focus on personnel matchups, scheme benefits, coaching tendencies and what we see on game tape. Then, I chose an X Factor player who could make the biggest impact for each team.

Let’s take a look at how all four underdogs can win their divisional round matchups, starting with the Bills vs. Broncos. (ESPN) football power index And DraftKings Sportsbook provided odds for each game.)

Join a team:
buf | Chi | HOU | SF

When: Saturday, 4:30 PM ET (CBS)
FPI Prediction: Danes, 51.6%
Game Line: DEN-1.5

Aggressive Keys to Win: There are answers for man coverage

The Broncos played man coverage (cover 1, two-man, zero-man) on a league-high 60.8% of opponent dropbacks this season. And Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph will bring man pressure, as the Broncos’ 31.3% blitz rate was the seventh-highest in 2025. Therefore, Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady will have to dial up his man-coverage beaters when getting the ball out to the quarterback. josh allenThe hands move quickly.

This won’t be Allen’s first test against heavy man coverage this season, as he faced Cleveland, Houston and Atlanta. What does the tape tell us there?

Buffalo can move the stick to the slot receiver on quick, three-step throws (unders, crossers, screens) Khalil Shakir. Brady can also use his pick/rub concepts to free up receivers and tight ends on wheel routes and out-breakers. Additionally, he can plan shots and make vertical one-on-ones. brandin cook And Keon Coleman On the periphery.

Defensive Keys to Victory: Late movement and field discipline

We know what the Bills are from a defensive standpoint. They play heavy two-high coverage (52.9% of opponent dropbacks) with late movement to change snaps. Buffalo will immediately rotate their defense and play with excellent zone discipline and vision to jam the throwing lanes. And I don’t think the Bills will change their defensive identity against the Denver quarterback. bo nix.

Against zone coverage this season, Knicks has completed 64.5% of his throws with seven interceptions. This was 49.4 Qbr compared to 82.6 Qbr for humans. This is a game where the Bills can get deep at the second level, thus squeezing mid-field windows and having the safety over the top to break up on passes. This is basic football for Buffalo, but it should be enough against coach Sean Payton’s in-breaking concepts.

Impact Bill X Factor: Security cole bishop Shut the door on Jaguars with game-sealing interception at quarterback trevor lawrence In wild-card matchup. On Saturday, he will be tasked with staying on top of vertical routes in the deep half, rotating down to cut off in-breakers and inserting himself into the run front. Bishop had three interceptions in the regular season.

When: Saturday, 8pm ET (Fox)
FPI Prediction: sea, 59.6%
Game Line: sea-7

Aggressive Keys to Win: Create passing window in front of cover 2

The Seahawks defense plays with incredible team pursuit. It’s a physical unit that has allowed a league-low 3.7 yards per carry this season. Meanwhile, the 49ers may lack efficiency when running the ball Christian McCaffrey. So, for some answers, I think we need to focus on coach Kyle Shanahan’s passing attack — which will be without any tight ends. george kittel (torn achilles).

In week 18 When San Francisco faced Seattle at quarterback brock purdy A pass of 20 or more yards was completed only once, and he saw a two-deep field goal from Seattle. He completed 12 of 16 passes against the zone but for only 5.8 yards per attempt. The Seahawks were willing to give up the under throw after making the easy tackle.

This is where Shanahan can now open windows for Purdy, using play-action on early downs to force Seattle’s linebackers and safeties out of position. Shanahan needs to define the right targets and get Purdy into a rhythm to make some short plays. john jennings And demarcus robinson Can operate at intermediate level; tight end Jake Tonges Seams can be stretched.

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Stephen A has high praise for Kyle Shanahan

After the team’s playoff win over the Eagles, Stephen A. Smith gave flowers to 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan.

Defensive Keys to Victory: Limit the Seahawks’ run game early

49ers and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh could expand game plan in passing situations Sam Darnold. They’ll need Darnold to rush the offense or force looks, testing his decision-making late in the game. But to do that, the 49ers must first win in the opening round against the Seahawks’ zone run game.

In week 18, Kenneth Walker III Averaged 7.5 yards per carry on outside zone concepts, pressing the ball on the perimeter and finding the crease to unload vertically. Zach Charbonnet The inside field game added 7.4 yards per carry, often turning the ball over in broad daylight.

I don’t see this as a scheme issue, as Saleh can get the numbers up front when facing 21 personnel (two running backs, one tight end, two wide receivers) and 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two receivers). Instead, it’s about cutting off the ball on the edges, which San Francisco failed to do consistently in Week 18. The 49ers also need their cutback defenders to play more disciplined.

grassroots level? You can’t give up 5.0 yards per carry on a first down this time.

Impact 49ers X Factor: Tonges lacks Kittle’s lower body flexibility, but he can run all the routes Shanahan’s offense needs to be a tight end. He caught 34 passes for five touchdowns in the regular season. After Kittel came out wild-card round However, against the Eagles, Tongs only had one catch for 14 yards. In Seattle, he will need to expose seams and crossers, working the low-field voids as an outlet for Purdy.

When: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)
FPI Prediction: Northeast, 52.0%
Game Line: Northeast-3

Aggressive Keys to Win: Create explosive plays on deep high-low reads

with availability of Nico Collins (Shake) is still uncertain at this point, the Texans will have to plan more to make explosive plays. And if you watch the Houston tape, coordinator Nick Kelly likes to create coverage gaps for the quarterback on high-low reads. CJ Stroud.

Here, Texans can use Christian Kirk and newbie Jaelyn Noel On deep routes to attack the outside one-third of coverage. These are rhythmic throws for Stroud that can lead to explosive opportunities, as we saw several times when he targeted Kirk against Pittsburgh. wild-card round. Kirk finished with eight catches for 144 yards and a score. Kelly could draw Stroud’s defense away from the play-action to move it forward, as this would force some defenders to play downs.

Defensive Keys to Victory: Play man-free coverage

We’ll see some two-deep zones from coach Demeco Ryans’ defense on Sunday. But the Texans have played man-free coverage on 34% of opponent dropbacks this season (sixth most in the NFL), which can hamper timing for the Pats quarterback. drake may.

cornerback derek stingley jr. And Kamari LassiterPlus jalen pitre In the slot, can match up well against New England’s wide receivers. And that’s important given the amount of under throws (out, in-breakers, pivots and crossers) in the Patriots’ passing game.

Impact Texans X Factor: calen bull He has the best range of any safety in the league, as he is able to track the ball from the deep middle of the field and squeeze the boundary vertical into Cover 2. His ability to close down the post is a key part of the Texans’ plan. Bullock had four interceptions in the regular season, and he took another interception for a touchdown against Pittsburgh.

When: Sunday, 6:30 pm ET (NBC)
FPI Prediction: LAR, 60.7%
Game Line: LAR-3.5

Aggressive Keys to Win: Facilitate the pass game in 12 personnel

The Bears completed 21 completions of 20 or more yards among 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two receivers) this season, which tied for second in the league. With this setup, coach Ben Johnson can get extra numbers in pass protection against the Rams edge rushers jared verse And byron young. he will quarterback Caleb Williams Ample time to make third-level throws or shots against an LA secondary that lacks top speed.

Plus, Chicago could use the tight end’s alignment versatility colston loveland To get favorable matchups on the boundary against LA’s cornerbacks.

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What can the Bears do to slow down the Rams offense on Sunday?

Courtney Cronin reports from the Bears facility on how much attention Chicago’s defense should pay when facing the Rams’ No. 1 offense.

Defensive Keys to Victory: Play two-man coverage on third down

Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen had the Bears in two-man coverage on 11.1% of opponent dropbacks this season, sixth-most in the league. I would increase that number on third down vs. quarterback Matthew Stafford.

This will put the Bears in a position to rotate their defense, limit vertical routes to the strong side of the formation, and use boundary defenses to break up on intermediate throws. The two-man coverage should also shut down the Rams’ preferred routes over the middle of the field. And it will help the Bears limit free access to the ball for receivers puka nakua And davante adams.

Impact Bear X Factor: rookie wide receiver Luther Burden III Has caught 20 out of 27 targets in his last four matches. He can be a multi-level target, as well as see the ball on a screen or make a fly sweep. With his open-field vision and ability to make sudden movements, Burden can make impact plays.