wild-card round of 2025 nfl playoffs is about to be completed, and Divisional Round Matchups Taking shape. The NFC pairing sets are: san francisco 49ers will play in Seattle Seahawksand this Los Angeles Rams will face Bear in Chicago.
To look ahead to these games, we asked our NFL Nation correspondents to pick one thing we learned about the teams they covered during the wild-card round. (For the Seahawks, who didn’t play this week, Brady Henderson provided some insight from what they did during the bye week.) Seth Walder also explored how each team could win to advance to the NFC Championship Game, and we also provided ESPN’s projections. football power index (FPI) and starting lines.
Let’s start with the 49ers vs. Seahawks.
Go to Matchup:
sf-sea , lar-chi
nfc
When: TBD Saturday or Sunday
FPI Launch: sea, 61.3%
First line: sea-6.5 (47.5)
What we learned about the 49ers in the wild-card round: Common sense would suggest that a team playing without several of its biggest stars – the edge rushers – nick bossalinebacker fred warner And, until Sundaytight end george kittel — finally ending the magic that has defined its unlikely run to the postseason. Sunday was not that day. Despite another devastating injury to a team leader, these Niners have continued to challenge conventional wisdom and forge a path that few could have imagined before the season. The lesson Sunday was familiar: As long as these Niners keep playing, it’s foolish to count them out. –Nick Wagner
What the Seahawks did during their bye week: It was hardly an off week for the Seahawks. They practiced outdoors Wednesday and Thursday — in light rain on Wednesday with temperatures in the low 40s and wind both days — as coach Mike McDonald tried to get his team used to playing in the kind of weather it might see in the postseason. “We’re not treating it like the bye week of the regular season where guys are flying to Mexico and Hawaii and enjoying their time,” the Pro Bowl defensive lineman said. leonard williams Said. “I think we really celebrated that win against the Niners. But right away the next day, you could tell people, ‘Hey, the job’s not done. We have a lot of work to do.'” — Brady Henderson
Why the 49ers will win: Because Sam Darnold He is no longer the same player he was at the beginning of the season. Ten weeks into the campaign, the Seahawks quarterback led the NFL in QBR (77.8). But in week 11Seattle lost to the Rams, and from that moment forward, Darnold ranked 27th (36.9) in the same metric! The 49ers won’t fall into the trap other teams have against Seattle: mixing the Seahawks’ big men with base defensive personnel. San Francisco is a nickel-heavy team, which will either invite Seattle to run or force Darnold into less favorable situations. And for everything that went wrong with the 49ers Regular season finaleStill, they held the Seahawks to just 13 points.
Giving San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan two weeks to study film after that loss might be enough for him to find some new ways to beat that impenetrable McDonald defense. And the 49ers’ passing game is good; They have added an average of 0.17 expected points (EPA) per dropback, which ranks sixth best among all teams and fifth best among those who have made the playoffs. All-Pro offensive tackle trent williams hope to play (He missed the Week 18 matchup), the 49ers definitely have a chance here.
Why the Seahawks will win: They proved it in Week 18 in the battle for the No. 1 seed. Seattle shut down the 49ers’ offense with its brutal defense, holding San Francisco to just three points. This was hardly an aberration: Seattle’s defense is the best in football, and the statistics are undeniable. Number 1 in EPA allowances per game. Number 1 in opponent success rate. And one of my favorites: Minus-30 According to NFL Next Gen Stats, opponent runs allowed more than expected for the first time downs, double the next best team in the regular season (The) houston texans At minus-15).
But the Seahawks have another reason for optimism: While their passing game hasn’t been the same in the second half of the season, they can make up for it with a more reliable offensive attack against a 49ers defense that is hurting linebackers. warner and tatum bethune are outside, and Dee Winters San Francisco also missed the wild-card game. –Walder
Matchup Background: These teams meet with the Seahawks on January 3 at Levi’s Stadium Beat the 49ers 13-3 To clinch the NFC West and homefield advantage throughout the conference playoffs. 49ers Beat Seattle 17-13 In the season opener at Lumen Field, San Francisco forced a late turnover. These franchises have split two previous playoff matchups, with Seattle winning the 2013 NFC Championship Game and the 49ers defeating the Seahawks in the 2022 wild-card round. –ESPN
Statistics to know: Darnold led the NFL with 20 turnovers this season (14 interceptions, six lost fumbles). It is the first time since 1978 that a player from a No. 1-seeded team has led the league in turnovers. – ESPN Research
0:17
Purdy finds McCaffrey for a TD late to put the 49ers ahead
Brock Purdy threw a touchdown pass to Christian McCaffrey to give the 49ers the lead late in the fourth quarter against the Eagles.
When: TBD Saturday or Sunday
FPI Launch: LAR, 61.2%
First line: LAR-4.5 (51.5)
What we learned about the Rams in the wild-card round: The football world once again saw why the Rams felt so confident in those circumstances Matthew Stafford At quarterback. Stafford led the Rams on two go-ahead touchdown drives in the fourth quarter against the panthersIncluding one with 38 seconds left. “His leadership is the reason we’re moving forward,” Rams coach Sean McVay said. Stafford now has four career game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime of a playoff game. According to ESPN Research, who is Stafford’s top signal-caller since joining the Rams in 2021? patrick mahomes With six. — Sara Barshop
What we learned about the Bears in the wild-card round: The Bears continue to be one of the best second half teams in the NFL. After trailing Green Bay 21–3 at halftime, Chicago came from behind in the fourth quarter to score 25 points and beat the packersBut as they’ve been saying all season, the Bears need to get off to a fast start on both sides of the ball, Chicago’s defense puts pressure on the Packers’ QB jordan love Only 18% of their dropbacks in the first half (compared to 32% in the second half, including four on the Packers’ last drive). Caleb Williams And the offense struggled until the Bears quarterback passed his deep-ball in the second half, when he was 7 of 13 for 166 yards and a touchdown on passes of 15 or more air yards. In the first half, Williams was 2 of 5 for 40 yards and had an interception on such throws. –Courtney Cronin
Why Ram will win: The Rams are arguably the best team in football – and the Bears aren’t. Don’t get me wrong, Chicago deserves a lot of credit for its remarkable season, but the numbers are clearly in Los Angeles’ favor. This is a team that ranks second in EPA per game on offense, has an MVP favorite at quarterback, the best wide receiver in football and a solid offensive line that will give Stafford all day to throw against the Bears’ lackluster pass rush.
The Bears have a strong running game, and we’ve certainly seen incredible moments from Williams. But in terms of EPA per game, the Rams have the advantage on both sides of the ball. Also, we can argue that we did not see the real version of Ram wild-card round After Stafford suffered early finger injury (But still, somehow managed to make a comeback). And if the wide receiver puka nakua Certainly had it not been for the incredibly uncharacteristic downing and a touchdown at the end of the first half, the Rams would have defeated the Panthers more comfortably.
And while the Rams’ defense isn’t perfect, every key player on the defensive line — jared verse, kobi turner, Braden Fiske And Poona Ford –Can create havoc for your opponents.
1:04
Recap of the Bears’ comeback win over the Packers
Kimberly A. Martin recaps the performance of Caleb Williams and the Bears against the Packers.
Why the Bears will win: They can never be denied. Chicago adds improbable wins to its season incredible come from behind victory over the Packers in which the Bears entered the fourth quarter down by 15 points and came out with a four-point lead. Meanwhile, we saw bears at their best. Williams made the throw of a lifetime on fourth down and eight to keep their hopes alive, and coach Ben Johnson used an unbalanced line to sell pass-and-go screens, fooling the Packers’ secondary and Freeing. dj moore For a touchdown.
But what makes Chicago so dangerous is that they won despite not being the best version of themselves. In the regular season, the Bears averaged a 48% success rate on designed runs (third best), but that number dropped to 28% against Green Bay. And even in wins, Williams had a 28% below-target rate and a below-expected -14% completion percentage (according to NFL Next Gen Stats) – both significantly worse than his regular season marks. They will be home underdogs against the Rams and Los Angeles’ offense should have a serious advantage over the Bears’ defense. But the Bears can generate turnovers, forcing a league-high 33 in the regular season. They’ll need more of that turnover differential to go their way against the Rams, but it’s possible. –Walder
Matchup Background: The Rams and Bears did not play this season, with their most recent matchup coming in Week 4 of the 2024 season. chicago won 24-18 At Soldier Field, snapped a three-game losing streak to Los Angeles. This is only the third postseason matchup between these franchises and the first in 40 years. The Bears defeated the Rams 24–0 in the 1985 NFC Championship Game en route to the Super Bowl XX title, Chicago’s most recent NFL championship. –ESPN
Statistics to know: After being sacked two or more times in 15 games last season, Williams has been sacked one or zero times in 11 games in 2025 (including Saturday’s playoff win). The Rams had 47 sacks in the regular season and added two more in their wild-card win over Carolina. – ESPN Research
