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andre snellings
Nikola Jokic He suffered a knee injury on Monday night and is expected to miss the next month, with a deep impact On the NBA MVP race. In the short term, this narrows the field to one big favorite Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderBut in the long run, this trend of injuries could expand the field to include players who weren’t even in the hunt before,
As of November 13, there were five clear favorites to win the NBA MVP: Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyamajokic, luka doncic And giannis antetokounmpo,
On 14 November, Vembanyama injured his left calf and missed the next month. Players must play 65 games in a season to be eligible to win MVP, meaning they cannot miss more than 17 games. Vembanyama hasn’t exactly missed 17, but he’s been close enough that his MVP chances have dropped dramatically. After his injury, there were only four clear MVP favorites.
On December 3, Antetokounmpo suffered a strain in the soleus muscle of his calf, keeping him out of action for most of the month. Again, in addition to the Bucks’ struggles in Antetokounmpos’ absence, the missed games sharply reduced their MVP odds. At that time, there were three MVP favorites.
Now, after Jokic’s injury, there are two. according to DraftKings SportsbookGilgeous Alexander is by far the favorite to win the MVP at -450, meaning one would have to bet 450 units on SGA to win 100. Doncic is the only other player whose odds are within shouting distance at +370 (a 100 unit bet on Doncic would return 370 units). But after Doncic, the decline at third and fourth is huge: Cade Cunningham (+5000) and Jalen Brunson (+6000).
It may be difficult for Luka to reach 65 games
Now, consider that Doncic has already missed seven of the Lakers’ first 30 games, a pace that will get him to just under 63 games on the season. This pace roughly matches his average pace of 62.8 games per season over the last four seasons.
Doncic only played 50 games last season. If Doncic continues his current game-missing pace, he will also be ineligible to win MVP this season.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s durability puts him in clear front
If Doncic doesn’t reach the threshold, only Gilgeous-Alexander will be left as a viable MVP contender among the five early season favorites.
Gilgeous-Alexander had trouble staying healthy early in his career, missing an average of 25.7 games per season from 2020–21 to 2022–23. However, he has remained largely healthy since missing an average of only 6.5 games per season over the past two campaigns and finished second and first in those MVP votes.
This season, SGA has only lost one game, and with the other top MVP candidates losing, there is a strong possibility of winning his second MVP award in the spring.
Longshots have a real chance if SGA misses extended time
If Gilgeous-Alexander, for whatever reason, misses extended time this season, the MVP race will suddenly go from a one-man race to wide open.
Players with odds of 50-1 or more will suddenly become favorites themselves. And because of that, people who are interested in long-shot betting may find value in betting on those players in advance.
Cunningham (50-1), Brunson (60-1), jaylen brown (100-1), tyreese maxi (100-1) and Anthony Edwards (500-1) is just one SGA extended absence from becoming the MVP leader.
final thoughts
At this point, I fully expect Gilgeous-Alexander to win his second consecutive MVP award after the season ends. But just 48 hours ago, I fully expected Jokic to fight tooth and nail for that award.
Things can change in the blink of an eye in the NBA, and it is worthwhile for better future players to consider the implications of potential changes if they occur.
