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andre snellings
multiple authors
With just about six weeks left in the NBA regular season, it’s the perfect time to look around the league and take a closer look at the awards race.
Which deal has been completed? Which ones are still up for grabs?
Let’s take a deeper look at each prize, learn about the leader, the players and long shots of interest involved in the hunt, and the stakes being placed.
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook And are as per publication.
most valuable Player
Leader: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-250)
in the hunt: Nikola Jokic (+425), Cade Cunningham (+700)
Long shots of interest: Victor Wembanyama (25-1), jaylen brown (40-1), luka doncic (75-1), Anthony Edwards (250-1)
There is a new candidate for MVP this season who is dominating the race, and his number is “65”. A few years ago, the NBA set a limit of 65 games played for any player to be considered for any individual award. This limit was part of the league’s effort to reduce so-called “load management” that was becoming very unpopular among fans, but the decision has had unintended consequences. is there anyone What’s happening in this MVP race?While many of the top MVP candidates have either already missed more than 17 games or are moving forward, there are simply too many absences to actually win the award.
Reigning MVP Gilgeous-Alexander has been sidelined with an abdominal injury and has missed 11 of the Thunder’s 60 games so far, including the last nine in a row. However, he is set to return on Friday at home against Denver. Jokic, the three-time MVP and defending runner-up, has missed 16 games. giannis antetokounmpo Has already missed 27 games and fellow former MVP joel embiid 26 have been missed. Stars of Los Angeles, Doncic and kawhi leonardHave missed 12 and 13 games respectively. Vembanyama has missed 14 games for Spurs.
Gilgeous-Alexander remains the favorite on DraftKings to win a second consecutive MVP, while Jokic is second, but one or both could be ineligible for the award if either miss a few more games in a row. And for betting folks, this is where things get interesting because this will open up the MVP race to candidates who didn’t have a chance to win. Two candidates in particular catch my attention as value bets in that scenario.
Cunningham is making a case that he can win MVP even if SGA and Jokic are eligible. He has led the Pistons to the best record in the NBA at the moment and has overtaken the Thunder to take the top spot. Cunningham is 12th in the NBA in scoring (25.4 ppg), second in assists (9.8 apg) and fourth among guards with 5.7 rpg. Cunningham is the only All-Star on a team that has dominated the league throughout the season, and if the Pistons finish the season with the best record then Cunningham will have a strong narrative argument to win his first MVP.
Vembanayama fell out of the MVP race when he suffered a long absence due to injury from mid-November to December, with the assumption that he would miss the limit of games. But when the Spurs brought him back, they brought him along slowly with limited minutes and even a role off the bench for a while, so he could get action in every game with less risk of re-injury. And that strategy has been very successful so far, with Wembanyama playing in 32 of the Spurs’ last 34 games, including the last 23 straight games.
There is growing sentiment that Wembley will exceed the 65-game threshold, as evidenced by him being the heavy favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year (.500). He can only win the DPOY if he reaches the 65-game limit, so if he’s eligible for that award he’ll also be eligible for MVP. And, like Cunningham, Wembey is building an MVP case that will be competitive, even if SGA and Jokic reach 65 games. He has been acclaimed as clearly the best defensive player in the league, while still averaging 23.7 PPG on offense.
Wembley had catapulted Spurs into contention at least a season earlier than expected to get there. They are currently the hottest team in the NBA having won 11 games and are only 1.5 games behind the Thunder for the top seed in the West. If the Spurs get past the Thunder and Wembley reaches 65 games, he will have a strong story to win his first MVP.
Ultimately, both SGA and Jokic are still eligible to win MVP, but betting on SGA specifically doesn’t have enough juice (-250) to be worth a futures bet. I see some value in Jokic at +425, as Jokic stands out as the best and most valuable player if every player reaches the 65-game limit. But Cunningham has more juice than both without the risk of losing the threshold to deliver more value. Wemby has similar cap risk, but he’s getting a lot more juice (+1900). All told, at this point in the season I think the bets are on Cunningham and Wembey for MVP.
rookie of the year
Leader: cooper flag (-125)
in the hunt: Con Knuppel (-105)
Longshots of interest: VJ Edgecombe (100-1), derrick queen (500-1)
It’s become a two-man race among former college teammates. The Flaggs were already favorites to win, but he averaged 37.8 ppg, 9.3 rpg and 4.5 apg in his four games starting on January 29… making the award all but certain if he reaches the 65-game threshold. Flagg has missed nine games so far and is currently held out for the last five games due to a foot injury and there is no timeline for his return yet.
That opens the door for Nueppel, Flagg’s teammate at Duke, who is in the running for the best 3-point shooting season by a rookie in NBA history. Knueppel is averaging 19.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg and 3.5 3ppg with a 50/40/90 shooting percentage. He has also helped lead the Hornets’ renaissance into playoff consideration, earning him more credit and potential votes for this award.
sixth man of the year
Leader: Naz Reed (+120)
in the hunt: keldon johnson (+240), jaime jaquez jr. (+650)
Long shots of interest: reed shepard (15-1), Tim Hardaway Jr.. (17-1), dylan harper (200-1)
The award has always fluctuated throughout the season, and most recently it was Reid – the 2023-24 Sixth Man of the Year winner – who has moved into pole position. Reed is headed for his career best marks in scoring (14.1 ppg), rebounds (6.4 rpg), assists (2.5 apg) and steals (1.0 spg), all surpassing the marks he achieved while winning the award a few seasons ago.
Johnson has been a strong sixth man all season for a Spurs team that could eventually clinch the top seed. Jacquez’s production has slowed since he was the favorite to win it earlier in the season, but Shepard has been coming on of late and his chances have improved enough to be considered.
Defensive Player of the Year
Leader: Victor Wembanyama (-500)
in the hunt: Chet Holmgren (+400)
Longshots of interest: Rudy Gobert (15-1), scotty barnes (35-1), Amen Thompson (100-1), auser thompson (100-1)
When we last saw this race, Wemby had plus money (+400) due to concerns about reaching the play limit. Now, if he reaches 65 games, he is a favorite to win the award.
If not, Holmgren will most likely take it home. The only other player in the conversation is Gobert, who has won four times before, and has actually improved in the rankings since the last update. If Wembanyama misses the game and Gobert’s Timberwolves perform as strongly as they did last season, Gobert could be in line for his fifth DPOY.
