MLB offseason lessons: Dodgers’ spending, Skubal rumors, more

Pitchers and catchers are all reporting to spring training next week for Arizona and Florida and Kelly McDaniel Top 10 Free Agents Now signed, there is light at the end of the offseason tunnel for baseball fans.

But before we say goodbye 2025–26 MLB offseasonThis is a perfect time to understand the biggest topics wild winter And check out what they mean for the 2026 season — and the future of MLB.

How is the latest spending pace? los angeles dodgers And New York Mets What effect will that have on the mentality of baseball’s 28 other teams? What do the offseason of trade rumors mean for next summer’s trade deadline? And how should fans of those contenders who grew up — and others who decided to run it back with the same roster — feel about the coming season?

We asked ESPN MLB insiders Buster Olney and Jeff Passan to weigh in.

Dodgers’ spending makes waves (again). What does this mean for the future of MLB?

Olney: Financial disparity between teams has long existed, but the Dodgers’ payroll would serve to inspire efforts by other owners to rebuild the sport’s financial system through some type of proposed cap-and-floor design. As one former player said: “It’s like we’re back in 1994 – you’ve got some owners looking for players to solve ownership issues.”

Of course the players went on strike in August 1994 and that autumn’s World Series was cancelled. But it remains to be seen how much effort the owners will make to reform the system, and whether the players’ coalition will remain as tightly united as it was three decades ago.

Pasan: Let’s not forget the Mets, too. Their Opening Day payroll is $50 million more than the Dodgers’. But Buster’s words matter: The spending by the top two teams has reinforced to the 28 other teams that change is necessary. He believes the change comes from the salary cap.

Whether or not the league can ever convince players to accept it, most people in baseball — even among the Dodgers and Mets — accept that significant changes need to come after the collective bargaining agreement expires on Dec. 1. How significant this is will determine the length of the potential work stoppage and whether it impacts the 2027 season.

Overall spending in the last winter of the current CBA was good. What does this mean for next offseason?

Olney: As was the case before the previous owners’ lockout, there will be a rush to sign high-end free agents before December 1, and big-market teams will likely lead the way in spending extravagance. With so many unknowns about what the sport’s financial system will look like after the next collective bargaining agreement, there are agents and club executives who believe that the big spenders — the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Jays, perhaps others — will be overly aggressive in making moves under the current rules knowing those rules are about to change. In theory: They might look to take advantage of the current system while they still can.

Pasan: The Dodgers and Mets have already done this, right? They recognized that cash was an uncontrolled advantage and made it available in abundance. However, because of the uncertainty, I’m not sure this winter’s spending is particularly indicative of the way forward.

And while I was with Buster on the flood of signatures leading up to December 1, many executives and agents wondered whether the wide range of outcomes in a new basic agreement would ease that rush to get a transaction done before the lockdown. That’s probably the most likely outcome, yes, but a slow November could be a canary in the coal mine for months of inactivity to come.

kyle tucker Took high-AAV offer from Dodgers on long-term deal. What does this mean for the future of free agency?

Olney: Some agents and teams believe that yes, the model of big-money deals is changing, and teams are more interested in paying more money annually than shorter-term deals – which is what happened with Tucker, and bo bichet And framber valdez.

“I think it feels like really long-term deals have become stale for teams,” a league source said, referring to this winter’s dispute between the Phillies’ David Dombrowski and . bryce harper. “Not many teams can make these types of deals, but for the teams that can, it may be more attractive to pay a player aggressively in the short term.”

Pasan: Just because it needs to be said: Every team can make a deal like this. Probably not multiple deals over $300 million. But if the Royals can sign bobby wit jr. And Minnesota could sign carlos correa And Colorado can sign Nolan Arenado, anyone can sign anyone to a big dollar deal over time.

In fact, what I fear is that even if shorter-term, higher-average-annual-value contracts remove the less-productive years at the end of a contract, the cash-flow crunch that will materially impact some of the lower-revenue teams will discourage them from engaging in such deals. Between that and the signing bonuses that are the hallmark of such contracts, mid- and small-market teams are at a disadvantage when competing with Los Angeles and New York for the best free agents.

tariq skubal And Ketel Marte There were several trade rumors – but ultimately stopped. What does this mean for the 2026 MLB trade deadline?

Olney: A mid-summer return to the Scubble trade has always seemed unrealistic to me, especially with the Tigers living in a favorable AL Central landscape. How in the world can Detroit trade the AL’s best pitcher if they are within four or five games of first place in a very winnable division? Tigers fans – and probably players – will revolt.

In April, Marte will acquire 10-and-5 rights to veto any trade, but if Arizona falls out of contention — certainly a possibility in the highly competitive National League — the D-backs may revisit the question in midseason. However, by then his business may be affected by price performance, labor uncertainty and his ability to block any deal.

Most of the moves at the trade deadline have involved players who are imminent free agents, as some teams’ trade offers for players signed in 2027 may have been reduced due to concerns over the CBA.

Pasan: True, but that didn’t stop Seattle from offering a hefty package Brendan Donovan Or Washington is getting five possibilities in return mackenzie gore From Texas. At the end of the day, the smartest people – and, as a result, the smartest teams – know what they don’t know and don’t try to control what they can’t. And regardless of what their owners are telling them about the possibility of a limited system, if the front office feels a move at the deadline will allow them to beat the Dodgers in 2026, they won’t hesitate to be aggressive. Great seasons are too valuable and rare to chase.

As for Skubal and Marte: While Buster is in the right spot with the Tigers’ value proposition, teams that allow perceived fan pressure to dictate moves are rarely better off for it and Detroit knows it. signed by framber valdez However, will Wednesday’s three-year, $115 million contract change that calculation? Perhaps the outcome of Skubal’s arbitration hearing, expected Thursday, will provide additional clarity. Like Arizona and Marte, at the end of the day, it’s a projection question: Is the benefit from a trade minus the pain that would accrue if the player exceeds the value he would produce plus the compensation he would bring if he were not traded and ultimately left via free agency?

The Mets opted for a complete makeover after the fall of 2025. What does this mean for their 2026 chances?

Olney: Perhaps more than any other high-dollar contender, the possible outcomes for the Mets cover a wide range. If Bo Bichette hits, if Luis Robert stays on the field, if freddy peralta Makes more than 30 starts as the corner infielder adapts to his new position, if nolan mclean He continues to perform as well as he did at the end of last year… If all this goes well, this could be a very good team indeed, and perhaps the biggest threat to the Dodgers’ championship reign.

But with all due respect to the late, great Mets announcer Bob Murphy, if the ’26 Mets turn into a Murphy’s Law team – where a lot of the decisions backfire – it will rival the ’93 Mets (known as the worst team money can buy) in franchise history due to resources spent and fan expectations. That’s why no one in the game is working under more pressure in ’26 than Mets head of baseball operations David Stearns. He has to fix it; The Mets need to fix this.

Pasan: Let’s put it this way: I believe this is much closer to the possibility of the Mets moving forward than the buy-everything ethos of previous Steve Cohen teams. And not because it didn’t work, but because this winter reflected the Mets’ willingness and ability to be in the middle of every resulting free agency and trade possibility, while still operating with the value mentality that balance brings. The harsh truth is that the old Mets weren’t that good. Are these the Mets? They may not be, but they are positioned in a way to provide flexibility and balance that Mets incarnations did not have.

The Yankees and Phillies decided to play it out with mostly the same teams as the year before. What does this mean for their chances in the World Series?

Olney: On both teams, a lot depends on players returning from major injuries – in particular, the Yankees’ gerrit cole And louis gilAnd the Phillies’ jack wheeler. It’s easy to forget that the Yankees tied the Blue Jays for most wins in the AL last year, and the Phillies were the team the Dodgers feared most during the NL playoffs. But in general, both of these teams have older rosters and are probably more prone to injuries.

Pasan: I get excitement in New York and Philadelphia. When a team doesn’t reach the World Series, let alone win it, change is standard operating procedure. And yet Buster’s point about both teams being pretty good is salient. Is different. It’s not always better. And what the Yankees and Phillies have now is pretty good. is it enough? Nobody knows.

But on top of Cole and Gill, the Yankees get a full season cam schlitlerWith Elmer Rodriguez and Carlos Lagrange at the door. The Phillies are giving Justin Crawford every chance to win his center field job and Aidan Miller is not far behind. Ultimately, maybe these Yankees and Phillies are just like the Mets were broke: good, not very good. But to dismiss them at this point is audacity. Outside of the Dodgers, their chances to win are as strong as anyone else’s.