MLB 2026: Who is ACTUALLY more valuable — Judge or Ohtani?

Who is the best player currently in the game?

There have been five passionate, ongoing debates in baseball history regarding that question. The key word there is “on”, as it suggests a period of several years or more, involving the same two players. These five are:

• Ty Cobb vs. Honus Wagner, late 1900s to early 1910s

• Ted Williams vs. Joe DiMaggio in the 1940s, with an interruption for World War II

• Mickey Mantle vs. Willie Mays in the mid-1950s and spanning the early 1960s

• Barry Bonds vs. Ken Griffey Jr. in the 1990s

• shohei ohtani versus aaron judge … Now

We’re in the midst of the fifth great debate, as Ohtani plays for back-to-back reigning champions los angeles dodgersand judge, captain New York YankeesEnter your fifth season as the best in the game battle for supremacy. Undoubtedly, this is a debate won in spreadsheets and social media as well as on the field, especially with two players who are now in different leagues and both capable of winning the MVP award — which Ohtani has done in four of the last five seasons (all four of them, remarkably, unanimous wins) and Judge in three of the last four.

The consensus entering 2026: Ohtani is No. 1 with an exclamation point. he topped easily ESPN’s MLB Ranks Among the top 100 players in baseball this season. Alden Gonzalez wrote, “It almost seems unfair to include Ohtani on this list.” “Sometimes, it feels like he’s in a category of his own.” Judge took the No. 2 spot behind Ohtani. “The judge, not Ohtani, is the best the killer in the world,” wrote Jorge Castillo. “The Yankees captain has reached all-time great status.”

Ohtani is definitely the most unimaginative player we have ever seen. But is he really the more valuable of the two?

I’ll admit: When I presented my top 100 rankings, I placed Judge first and Ohtani second, even though I agree with Alden’s statement. Ohtani does He’s in a class of his own, especially as he returns for his first full season of pitching since his elbow injury in August 2023. his achievements – his 50/50 season in 2024 After his three-homer/10-strikeout performance in the National League Championship Series last October – he continued to surprise in prodigious style. That’s 1-in-1.

Still…the judges are also surprising. Since he beat out Ohtani for AL MVP honors in 2022 after hitting 62 home runs, Judge has arguably been the more valuable of the two in three of the past four seasons:

However, WAR is by no means the end of the discussion. More relevant for 2026: Ohtani is a better hitter than him Los Angeles Angels In 2022, he didn’t pitch at all, in 2024 he didn’t pitch at all, and in 2025 he only threw 47 innings. For the first time since 2023, we will see Ohtani perform at the peak of both his hitting and pitching powers.

So, let’s break down both players in each category of the game and see who comes out on top.

practicing

Let’s just focus on the last two seasons, as Judge missed time in 2023 due to a torn ligament in his toe. On the surface, the numbers look similar:

Judge: .326, 111 home runs, 259 runs, 258 RBI
Ohtani: .296, 109 home runs, 280 runs, 232 RBI

Of course, nothing is 30 points better in batting average, and Judge also walks more, so he has a big edge in the all-important on-base percentage, .457 to .391. Baseball-Reference estimates that Judge has driven in 356 runs over the past two seasons, while Ohtani has driven in 328 runs.

But now we turn to the lifeblood of baseball: outs. Judge has made 793 outs compared to Ohtani’s 911, so not only has Judge scored more runs, but he has also done so while taking far fewer outs. Judge’s offensive numbers are as astonishing in their own historical greatness as Ohtani’s two-way skills.

Using runs scored and outs, Baseball-Reference then calculates each player’s batting wins compared to an average hitter: Judge has averaged 9.4 wins at bat over the past two seasons, compared to 6.8 for Ohtani. The judges have been similarly impressive. Ohtani has been the second-best hitter in the game, and Judge is still 2.6 wins per season better. This is the difference in 2025, let’s say, bobby wit jr. And dansby swansonOr francisco lindor And marcus semien. This is a big difference.

Neither of these consider clutch hitting, but both players have – surprisingly – also excelled in high-leverage situations over the past two seasons, with Judge hitting .315/.466/.630 and Ohtani hitting .314/.428/.638. (Clutch hitting in the postseason is another discussion; we’re sticking to regular-season analysis here.)

Edge to…Judge (2.6 Offensive War Advantage)

Defense and baserunning

There are some runs to consider on the margins too. Ohtani had plenty of baserunning value in 2024 when he stole 59 bases in 63 attempts — about 10 runs worth, which almost translated into a win — but he was 26 of 26 in 2025 and is unlikely to chase 50 steals again this season. Despite this, Ohtani is still slightly better on the bases than Judge and grounds in fewer double plays. Overall, the FanGraphs baserunning metric credited Ohtani with plus-3.7 runs and Judge with minus-4.1 runs in 2025, while Baseball-Reference had Judge slightly closer.

However, Judge plays infield, while Ohtani is strictly a DH when he is not pitching. Judge remains a good right fielder, with plus-3 defensive runs saved in 2025 and even better fielding metrics via Statcast, where he ranks in the 86th percentile in range and 84th percentile in arm value. Both players take a hit in positional adjustments, with Judge’s overall defensive WAR for 2025 coming in at minus-0.5 and Ohtani’s at minus-1.7.

Can Ohtani be a good right fielder? Definitely. But the fact is that he doesn’t play on the field, so positional adjustments will have to be made. By combining defense with baserunning, Judge gains about 0.6 wins of additional value. With his 2.6-win lead at the plate, he is nearly 3.2 wins ahead of Ohtani.

That’s the gap Ohtani needs to make up with his pitching.

Edge to…Judge (0.6 defense/base running WAR advantage)

pitching

This much is certain: If Ohtani can pair his best hitting season (2024) with his best pitching season (2022), it is no longer debatable. It’s Ohtani in a landslide – Usain Bolt in the 200m. Ohtani had 9.0 WAR as an offensive player in 2024 and 6.3 WAR as a pitcher in 2022. That would be an unfathomable 15-WAR season. Even excluding 50 steals, a 14-war season is in play.

Two questions: How effective will he be as a pitcher? And how many innings will he play?

As far as effectiveness is concerned, Ohtani’s final spring start could be an indicator of what’s to come. Pitching against the Angels at Dodger Stadium in the Freeway Series, Ohtani struck out 11 batters in four innings, including striking out six in a row at one point, although the first three batters he faced hit singles in the fifth inning and came on to score. Nevertheless, it was an electric performance, and after the game, manager Dave Roberts reiterated his desire to have Ohtani go “wire-to-wire” as a pitcher.

Ohtani also revealed his goal: 25 starts. “I look at it as an important benchmark as a starting pitcher,” he said earlier in spring training.

With the Angels in 2022, Ohtani made 28 starts, going 15–9 with a 2.33 ERA in 166 innings. Since he returned to pitching in 2021 after his first elbow surgery, he has accumulated 15.3 WAR in 88 starts – an average of 4.3 WAR per 25 starts. However, that figure includes some short stints last season when he returned to the rotation for the first time. He is in full swing for the start of 2026. If he averages 5.8 innings per start, as he did from 2021 to 2023, that gives him 145 innings in 25 starts and 4.7 WAR at the historical price rate.

This is more innings and more value than projection systems are projecting, which typically puts him around 110 to 115 innings and 2.5 to 2.6 WAR. If we split the difference between high-workload Ohtani and low-workload Ohtani, we get about 3.7 WAR in pitching value.

Edge To… Ohtani (3.7 Pitching WAR Advantage)

final call

That pitching projection puts Ohtani 0.5 WAR ahead of Judge in overall value.

However, there are other unknowns to consider. Ohtani is now 31, while he was 28 in 2023, the last time he attempted both hitting and pitching for an entire season. How will his body handle the rigors of doing both for 162 games? It is worth noting that his best season hitting came in 2024, when he Only Hit – Although, to be fair, he wasn’t too far off that track last season. Although he hasn’t performed that well in his career when he pitches – the aforementioned NLCS game notwithstanding – two of his best three months last season came in August and September, when he was back in the rotation. There’s no reason to expect anything other than another big year at the plate, with a third consecutive 50-homer season being the benchmark.

As for Judge, he’ll turn 34 at the end of April, and he won’t have an OPS over 1.100 forever. Will the regression start in 2026? Projection systems forecast a decline, but that’s partly because his 2024-25 production levels are nearly impossible to repeat. His third consecutive 50-homer season – and record-breaking fifth overall – remains the benchmark for Judge, perhaps even with a second consecutive batting title. If he is to be the best player in 2026, there is clearly little room for even minimal decline.

Finally, I will admit that I was probably wrong about the top 100 ranking. As long as Ohtani plays enough innings, his two-way value will be hard to beat. But it’s close. Close enough that the debate remained – unlike many Ohtani or Judge fly balls – in play.