Men’s Sweet 16 preview: Keys to every team advancing in the NCAA tournament

The madness marches on with the Sweet 16 set to tip off Thursday.

What are every team’s keys to surviving and advancing another round? ESPN’s college basketball reporters break down what could decide each game in the next round of the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament.

7:10 p.m., Thursday, CBS

How Texas can advance to Elite Eight: Texas is suddenly one of the hottest teams in the field, winning three games in five days to go from the First Four to the Sweet 16. Sean Miller has made Matas Vokietaitis an offensive focal point, and the Lithuanian native responded by averaging 20.0 points and 12.5 rebounds in his past two NCAA tournament games. Over his past 12 games, Vokietaitis is averaging 17.6 points and 8.1 rebounds. Purdue has enough size to deal with the 7-foot-1 big man, but the Boilermakers also allowed opponents to shoot better than 56% inside the arc in Big Ten play.

The Longhorns also have to continue their defensive resurgence, which has come out of nowhere after they ranked No. 159 in adjusted defensive efficiency in their final six games before the NCAA tournament. They’re allowing just 1.03 points per possession in three tournament games. The key will be whether that’s enough against Purdue, which is ranked No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Texas has to make sure it doesn’t let Braden Smith dictate the entire game.

How Purdue can advance to the Elite Eight: The late-season return to form of Trey Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer has taken Purdue to a different level — and is likely the Boilermakers’ biggest key moving forward. Kaufman-Renn had 20 points in the Big Ten tournament title game, 25 points in the first-round NCAA tournament win over Queens, then went for 19 points and nine rebounds in the second-round victory against Miami. Loyer was perfect from 3-point range (4-for-4) against the Hurricanes and is now shooting 19-for-35 from beyond the arc in his last five games.

While Texas’ defense has tightened up recently, it was still ranked in the bottom half of the SEC, while Purdue enters the Sweet 16 with the best offense in the country. Moreover, the Boilermakers rank in the top 10 nationally in 3-point percentage, while the Longhorns are in the bottom third in 3-point defense. If C.J. Cox is healthy and can make shots alongside Loyer and Kaufman-Renn, Purdue should be able to light up the scoreboard. — Jeff Borzello

7:30 p.m., Thursday, TBS/truTV

How Iowa can advance to the Elite Eight: Unlike most other Sweet 16 matchups, we have evidence on how Iowa can beat Nebraska (and vice versa). When the Hawkeyes beat the Cornhuskers on Feb. 17, Bennett Stirtz was relatively inefficient but still finished with 25 points in willing Iowa to a win. When the Hawkeyes lost to the Cornhuskers in the regular-season finale, he finished with 11 points on 10 shots. In the NCAA tournament, Stirtz has received plenty of help from his supporting cast, with Alvaro Folgueiras averaging 14.0 in two wins and Tavion Banks scoring 20 against Florida.

Defensively, the Hawkeyes have to avoid fouling. They ranked last in the Big Ten in defensive free throw rate, and there was a noticeable gap in free throw attempts in the two games against Nebraska. When Iowa won, it was plus-6 at the free throw line. When Nebraska won, Iowa was minus-10.

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No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 4 Nebraska game preview

Check out some stats on Nebraska’s Sweet 16 matchup with Iowa in the NCAA men’s tournament.

How Nebraska can advance to Elite Eight: Nebraska picked up its first NCAA tournament win in program history Thursday, then doubled its total in drama-filled fashion Saturday. What will the Cornhuskers need to do to win a third — against a team they split the regular-season series with during Big Ten play? Their success all year has been primarily predicated on two factors: 3-point shooting and defense.

They rank top 15 nationally in 3-pointers made per game, 3-point attempt rate and percentage of points generated off 3-pointers. They have four players who made 50 or more 3s this season, and they’ll likely have to make double-digit 3s to win next week. When they beat Iowa on Feb. 17, they made 10 3s. When they lost, they were 5-for-24. Nebraska led the Big Ten in adjusted defensive efficiency, holding opponents to below 30% from 3-point range and forcing turnovers on nearly 20% of possessions. The Cornhuskers had far more success against Iowa when they forced Stirtz into a tough outing. — Borzello

9:45 p.m., Thursday, CBS

How Arkansas can advance to Elite Eight: With his team battling High Point late and Rob Martin playing like an NBA All-Star, Darius Acuff Jr. never flinched as his late buckets sealed Arkansas’ fifth Sweet 16 appearance in six years. The projected NBA lottery pick’s impact was evident on Malique Ewin‘s missed attempt. Acuff drew three defenders before passing it to Ewin late in the game. High Point was hoping to stall not only one of the best point guards John Calipari has coached, but one of the most efficient and effective freshman point guards in recent college basketball history.

Arkansas can advance if Acuff can get downhill, draw fouls and create space for his teammates to impact the game. Ewin (14 points, 12 rebounds), Billy Richmond III (15 points, 10 rebounds) and Meleek Thomas (19 points) showed the winning blueprint for the Razorbacks because it’s never five-on-five against them. Acuff has to convince Tommy Lloyd that he has no chance against Arkansas if he tries to put a single defender on him. But on defense, Arkansas is dealing with the deepest team in the field. Each Razorback player has to win individual matchups, and Richmond and Trevon Brazile will have to match the physicality of an elite Arizona frontcourt without fouling excessively.

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Darius Acuff Jr. comes alive late to fuel Arkansas to Sweet 16

Darius Acuff Jr. shows up with a few clutch baskets down the stretch to help the Razorbacks reach the Sweet 16.

How Arizona can advance to the Elite Eight: Arizona can advance with a physically exhausting style that has challenged opponents throughout the season. Utah State cut Arizona’s lead to four points with five minutes to play Sunday — the Wildcats had led by as many as 18 — and staged a serious comeback in the final minutes. But Jaden Bradley drove to the rim and scored, Brayden Burries hit big shots and the Wildcats got to the free throw line with 22 attempts in the second half. That’s the taxing style that makes most opponents break.

Arizona is relentless. To beat Arkansas, though, its goal must be to stop the best player in this college basketball postseason: Acuff. If coach Tommy Lloyd can devise a defensive game plan against Acuff without sending a lot of help, then his guards can avoid early foul trouble, which could have an impact on the game. But that’s easier said than done. Acuff can make everybody panic, especially in crucial moments down the stretch. Arizona can’t do that if it expects to win. — Myron Medcalf

10:05 p.m., Thursday, TBS/truTV

How Illinois can advance to Elite Eight: After Illinois got off to a 14-5 start against VCU in the second round, it seemed as if the Illini might enter halftime with a substantial edge, but the Rams slowed the game down and upped their defensive pressure to enter the break down seven points. Ten minutes into the second half, VCU trailed by 22 points and seemed to know its Sweet 16 dreams had been deferred. That’s how quickly the game can turn against Illinois, which owns the best offense in America. That’s the Illini’s advantage against a Houston team prone to extensive scoring droughts.

They already have wins over Tennessee and Nebraska, both top-15 defenses nationally. Yet, Houston and its pressure are unique. The Illini will hit difficult offensive stretches against the Cougars — Illinois has proven that it never stays cold, though. When the shots stop falling for Houston, as they have multiple times this season, Illinois will advance if its impeccable offense can extend a lead. Houston isn’t built for comebacks while Illinois is equipped to widen the gap against its opponents. Whenever that opportunity arises against the Cougars, the Illini have to seize it.

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No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Houston game preview

Check out some stats on the matchup between Illinois and Houston in the NCAA men’s tournament.

How Houston can advance to Elite Eight: Their defensive strength is their advantage when they force opponents to play methodically and measured. Texas A&M entered its second-round matchup against Houston having played one of the fastest tempos in America, but the Cougars locked the Aggies into a 65-possession affair and recorded a subpar 87 points per 100 possessions. Houston will have to deploy the same method against Illinois.

Kelvin Sampson will need efficient efforts from star guards Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp. And Joseph Tugler, last season’s Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, has spent the last portion of his campaign as an emerging offensive threat. But to beat the best offense in the country, Houston will have to utilize the same gritty style that has anchored its 7-1 streak in its past eight games. One of the best defensive units in America will have to gain the edge against Illinois, which can turn a trickle of shots into a fire hose. Houston’s defensive strengths will have to be the difference against Brad Underwood’s squad. — Medcalf

7:10 p.m., Friday, CBS

How St. John’s can advance to the Elite Eight: The focus of Rick Pitino’s game plan against Duke will obviously be centered on slowing down Cameron Boozer. St. John’s has one of the elite defenses in college basketball, but what the Red Storm don’t have is the sort of length and athleticism that has troubled Boozer at times. Much of the responsibility will fall on the individual defensive abilities of Zuby Ejiofor and Dillon Mitchell, with the latter likely tasked with chasing Isaiah Evans in the half court.

Offensively, the Red Storm need to keep up their improved 3-point shooting. Before the NCAA tournament, they hadn’t made double-digit 3s in a game since Jan. 10. They’ve now done it in both tournament games, including 11 against Kansas.

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No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 1 Duke game preview

Check out some stats on the matchup between St. John’s and Duke in the NCAA men’s tournament.

How Duke can advance to Elite Eight: Duke has two areas of advantage on every team: its defense and having Cameron Boozer. When the Blue Devils turned up the heat defensively against TCU and began playing through Boozer on the offensive end, they began to dominate the Horned Frogs and completely changed the game. Boozer is the most productive player on the floor every time he plays, although Hall of Famer Rick Pitino and Big East Player of the Year Ejiofor will hope to slow him down.

Duke’s defense, the top-ranked unit in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom, has very few weaknesses — but the Red Storm aren’t built in the ideal fashion to cause consistent problems for the Blue Devils. They’ve shot the ball better recently, but they’re far from a consistent 3-point shooting team, and they rely heavily on offensive rebounds and free throws. Duke does an incredible job of limiting opponents in both areas. — Borzello

7:35 p.m., Friday, TBS/truTV

How Alabama can advance to the Elite Eight: It’s not a secret, but Alabama will need to make a barrage of 3s to have any chance of staying close with Michigan. The Crimson Tide lead the nation in 3-pointers made per game, 3-point attempts per game and 3-point attempt rate. They made 19 3s in the second-round win over Texas Tech. That has to continue against Michigan, as it will be be extremely difficult to score consistently at the rim against Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. Defensively, it’s going to be an uphill battle. Alabama has given up huge scoring efforts to good teams on multiple occasions, and the Crimson Tide rank in the middle of the pack in the SEC in defensive efficiency.

This game is going to feature plenty of points and plenty of pace. Alabama won’t back down from a running game with Michigan, and a shootout could play into the Tide’s hands.

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No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Michigan game preview

Check out some stats on Michigan’s Sweet 16 matchup with Alabama in the NCAA men’s tournament.

How Michigan can advance to Elite Eight: When Michigan leans into its strengths — its frontcourt, size and ability to dominate the paint at both ends of the floor — there are few teams in the country capable of competing with the Wolverines for 40 minutes. Mara is a force at the rim defensively, and is becoming a more consistent option on offense, while Yaxel Lendeborg has shown he can take over games on offense. Alabama doesn’t have the skill or talent up front to match Michigan, and doesn’t offer much rim protection, ranking near the bottom of the SEC in block percentage.

The other key for the Wolverines against will be whether Roddy Gayle Jr. and Nimari Burnett can slow down star Alabama guard Labaron Philon Jr., who had 29 points in the first round and 12 assists in the second round. He’s capable of carrying the Crimson Tide. — Borzello

9:45 p.m., Friday, CBS

How Michigan State can advance to Elite Eight: Personnel matchups generate the most headlines during the NCAA tournament, but coaching matchups are equally — if not more — impactful. During a tenure that began in 1995, Tom Izzo developed an uncanny ability to zero in on an opposing team’s top players and create problems for them. That’s the Spartans’ ticket to another Elite Eight.

Izzo’s primary mission against UConn is to limit Tarris Reed Jr.’s impact on the game. The Huskies different team when he’s a dominant presence in the post. If Reed is grabbing offensive rebounds and giving them an abundance of second-chance opportunities, Michigan State will be in a tough spot. The good news for the Spartans is that they are connecting on 35.9% of their 3-point attempts and capitalizing on second-chance opportunities with a 10th national ranking in offensive rebounding rate. It will be key for them to hit more 3s, extend UConn’s defense and create more paths to the basket for Jeremy Fears Jr. and Co. They have to give UConn a reason to guard on the perimeter — if the Spartans just allow the Huskies to sit in the lane, challenge shots around the rim and grab rebounds, Michigan State could lose.

Izzo has been in this position before, against better teams and won. His experience will matter in a matchup against Dan Hurley.

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Carson Cooper seals Michigan State’s win with emphatic slam

Carson Cooper rises and slams home the lob from Jeremy Fears Jr. to secure the win for the Spartans.

How UConn can advance to the Elite Eight: To beat Izzo, UConn will have to show up as the top-notch defensive outfit that held UCLA to just a 39% clip inside the arc in the second round. The Huskies’ win over the Bruins served as a reminder that they can be a great defensive team when they want to be. A week ago, UCLA had produced 132 points per 100 possessions in a Big Ten tournament win over Michigan State. On Sunday, the Bruins — who played without leading scorer Tyler Bilodeau (knee) — scored only 57 points, their second-lowest total of the season. UCLA star Donovan Dent had nine assists but also finished 2-for-9 shooting with a pair of turnovers. That’s the same attention UConn will need to give Fears. When he’s comfortable, Michigan State’s offense soars. The Huskies can’t let that happen.

On offense, Mullins could be an X factor. Reed had a double-double against UCLA, but not the historic numbers he put up against Furman in the first round (31 points, 27 rebounds). Alex Karaban recorded a career-high 27 points against the Bruins, with Solo Ball and Silas Demary Jr. scoring two points combined. If Reed and Karaban can create a balanced inside-outside attack, Michigan State will have to find a way to disrupt that, which could give Mullins — who is averaging 14.5 points in two NCAA tournament games so far — more freedom and opportunities to make plays and create off the dribble or on off-ball screens.

The Huskies have a multitude of options to score, and as long as most of them are effective, they can get back to the Elite Eight. — Medcalf

10:10 p.m., Friday, TBS

How Tennessee can advance to the Elite Eight: To beat Iowa State, Tennessee will have to play the same disciplined defense that stopped Virginia in the final minutes of Sunday’s second-round game. That task begins with Felix Okpara, who had four blocks against the Cavaliers and altered other shots, including a late drive by Thijs De Ridder that Okpara blocked during Virginia’s comeback attempt. Opposing players had made only 30% of their shots around the rim against Okpara entering Sunday’s game, per Synergy Sports data. He’ll have to protect the rim against Iowa State, which had a significant advantage in paint points against Kentucky (34-20) — but he won’t have to do it alone.

Tennessee has the personnel to handle every one-on-one matchup defensively. The Vols can guard at every spot. They will have to put pressure on Tamin Lipsey, sharpshooter Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson, if he returns, to win. That defensive effort coupled with standout performances from Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament would be the formula for a Tennessee trip to the Elite Eight.

How Iowa State can advance to the Elite Eight: With or without All-American Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State will have the same blueprint against Tennessee: move the ball to find the best shot on offense, force turnovers with defensive pressure and score on fast breaks. Although they didn’t have Jefferson, who is dealing with a foot injury, the Cyclones forced 20 turnovers in their second-round win over Kentucky while outscoring the Wildcats 34-20 in the paint. Playing through Lipsey — who finished with 26 points, 10 assists and only three turnovers — the Cyclones registered 150 points per 100 possessions and made 63% of their shots after halftime. They are 18-2 when Lipsey’s assist-to-turnover ratio is 3-to-1or better.

Gillespie and Ament combined for five turnovers in Tennessee’s second-round win over Virginia. Iowa State can pressure that duo into the same mistakes Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen (eight turnovers combined) made for Kentucky, even if Jefferson sits out another game. That’s how the Cyclones can advance. — Medcalf