It’s been less than two weeks since the 2026 men’s NCAA Tournament field was determined — and it’s already down to the Elite Eight.
ESPN college basketball reporters Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf offer their predictions for Saturday’s Illinois-Iowa and Arizona-Purdue matchups. They also break down the keys to each team advancing to the Final Four.
6:09 PM ET, TBS/TruTV
Borzello’s prediction: Illinois, 72-66
Medcalf’s prediction: Illinois, 77-70
How Illinois can advance to the Final Four: If Illinois can continue its recent defensive form, it should beat Iowa and have a real chance to win a national championship. The Illini held VCU and Houston to 55 points each in their last two games, and have now held five of their last 10 opponents to less than a point. materiality of kylan boswell His size and length on the wings at the point of attack, combined with his rim protection, means he has enough to at least attempt a pick. Bennett Sturtz Off his game. Sturtz had only 12 points on 17 shots in the first meeting between the two Big Ten teams.
Offensively, Illinois will have the edge on the offensive glass – the Illini rank in the top five nationally in second-chance points per game. Iowa also ranked last in the conference in defensive free throw rate. Another key may be whether Illinois has success getting to the foul line.
0:49
No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 3 Illinois Game Preview
Check out some stats on Illinois’ Elite 8 matchup with Iowa in the NCAA men’s tournament.
How Iowa can advance to the Final Four: Iowa’s biggest strength in the NCAA Tournament has been its ability to control the pace. The Hawkeyes’ first-round game against Clemson had 54 possessions – the slowest game played by any team all season. Their second-round win over Florida saw the Gators have the fewest possessions all season. And their Sweet 16 win over Nebraska was the slowest game the Cornhuskers played all season. Could Iowa do the same with Illinois? The first meeting between the two Big Ten teams was closer to the Illini’s preferred pace, although the Hawkeyes fell behind early and were unable to mount a comeback.
Two more keys for Iowa: Sturtz must win the point guard battle against Boswell Keaton WaglerAnd the Hawkeyes will have to keep Illinois — the Big Ten’s best offensive rebounding team — from dominating second-chance opportunities. — Borzello
8:49 PM ET, TBS/TruTV
Borzello’s prediction: Arizona, 81-74
Medcalf’s prediction: Arizona, 85-82
How Arizona can advance to the Final Four: Although Purdue is more interested in playing defense than Arkansas, Arizona will still have an advantageous matchup against the Boilermakers on that end of the court. Purdue gave up nearly 1.27 points per possession to Texas in the Sweet 16, and the Boilermakers have given up at least 1.05 points per possession in 10 of their last 11 games. They were only 14th in the Big Ten in 2-point defense. In other words, Arizona just needs to stick to their identity and attack the paint at every opportunity.
brayden burys Or jaden bradley Must be able to consistently get into the lane off the dribble, and Motijus Krivas, tobe awka And koa peat Should get a chance at the post. Arizona doesn’t shoot a lot of 3s, but it’s worth noting that Purdue had one of the worst 3-point defenses in the Big Ten, so the Wildcats could have gotten some extra open shots.
Defensively, it’s about not letting Bradley and Burrows do that Braden Smith Work with freedom in the half court. Both of them are physical enough to make life difficult for him.
0:51
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 1 Arizona Game Preview
Check out some stats on the matchup between Purdue and Arizona in the men’s NCAA Tournament.
How Purdue can advance to the Final Four: The centerpiece of their game plan is to prevent Arizona from completely dominating the paint at both ends of the court. The Wildcats dominate on the offensive glass, around the rim and get to the free throw line at an incredibly high rate. Purdue, which had the second-best defensive rebounding percentage in the Big Ten, will need to hold its own on the backboard while staying out of foul trouble. Daniel JacobsenStruggles during the season have created more urgency oscar cluff To stay on the court. If he is forced to sit for a long time, it will not be a good sign for the boiler makers.
aggressively, Fletcher Lawyer Will be the key. Purdue will have to get hot from 3s to keep up with Arizona’s 2-point efficiency, and Lauer has made four 3s in each of the Boilermakers’ three NCAA Tournament games. — Borzello
