The 2026 men’s NCAA Tournament continues as the Sweet 16 tips off on Thursday in Houston and San Jose, California.
ESPN’s Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf give their predictions for Texas-Purdue, Iowa-Nebraska, Arkansas-Arizona and Illinois-Houston, along with the keys to each team moving forward.
7:10 pm, CBS
Borzello’s prediction: Purdue, 80-70
Medcalf’s prediction: Purdue, 85-72
How Texas can advance to the Elite Eight: Texas has emerged as one of the hottest teams in March, winning three games in five days to move from the First Four to the Sweet 16. Created by Sean Miller Matus Vokiaitis An offensive focal point, and the Lithuanian native responded by averaging 20.0 points and 12.5 rebounds in his last two NCAA Tournament games. And over his last 12 games, Vukiaitis is averaging 17.6 points and 8.1 rebounds. Purdue has enough size to deal with the 7-foot-1 big man, but the Boilermakers have also allowed opponents to shoot better than 56% inside the arc in Big Ten play.
The Longhorns also need to continue their defensive resurgence, which has come out of nowhere after ranking 159th in adjusted defensive efficiency in their final six games before the NCAA Tournament. They are allowing just 1.03 points per possession in three tournament games. The main thing will be whether it’s enough against Purdue, which ranks No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Texas needs to make sure that doesn’t happen Braden Smith Direct the entire game.
0:50
No. 11 Texas vs. No. 2 Purdue Game Preview
Check out some stats on the matchup between Texas and Purdue in the men’s NCAA Tournament.
How Purdue can advance to the Elite Eight: Return to form at the end of the season Trey Kaufman-Ren And Fletcher Lawyer Has taken Purdue to a different level – and is possibly the Boilermakers’ biggest key. Coffman-Renn had 20 points in the title game of the Big Ten Tournament and 25 points in the first-round NCAA Tournament win against Queens, then had 19 points and nine rebounds in the second-round win over Miami. Lauer was perfect from 3-point range (4-for-4) against the Hurricanes and is now shooting 19-for-35 from beyond the arc in his last five games.
While Texas’ defense has tightened up recently, it still ranked in the bottom half of the SEC, while Purdue entered the Sweet 16 with the best offense in the country. Additionally, the Boilermakers are in the top 10 nationally in 3-point percentage, while the Longhorns rank in the bottom third in 3-point defense. If CJ CoxWith Lauer, who suffered a knee injury and is listed as questionable, able to play and make shots, Purdue should be able to light up the scoreboard. — Borzello
7:30 p.m., TBS/truTV
Borzello’s prediction: Nebraska, 66-63
Medcalf’s prediction: Iowa, 65-60
How Iowa can advance to the Elite Eight: We have evidence of how Iowa can beat Nebraska (and vice versa). When the Hawkeyes defeated the Cornhuskers on February 17, Bennett Sturtz Was relatively inefficient but still finished with 25 points to lead Iowa to victory. When the Hawkeyes lost to the Cornhuskers in the regular season finale, he finished with 11 points on 10 shots. In the NCAA Tournament, Sturtz has received plenty of help from his supporting cast. Alvaro Folgueiras Average of 14.0 in two wins and Tavian Bank Scored 20 runs against Florida.
Defensively, the Hawkeyes will have to avoid fouling. They ranked last in the Big Ten in defensive free throw rate, and had a notable difference in free throw attempts in the two games against Nebraska. When Iowa won, it was plus-6 at the free throw line. Iowa was minus-10 when Nebraska won.
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No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 4 Nebraska Game Preview
Check out some stats on Nebraska’s Sweet 16 matchup with Iowa in the men’s NCAA Tournament.
How Nebraska can advance to the Elite Eight: Nebraska earned its first NCAA Tournament win in program history last Thursday, then dramatically doubled its total on Saturday when Vanderbilt’s half-court shutout thrown out. What will the Cornhuskers need to do to get a third win – against the team with whom they split the regular season series during Big Ten play? Their success throughout the year has been based primarily on two factors: 3-point shooting and defense.
They rank in the top 15 nationally in 3-pointers made per game, 3-point attempt rate and percentage of points generated from 3-pointers. They have four players who have made 50 or more 3s this season, and they will likely have to make double figures on 3s to win. When they beat Iowa on February 17, he made 10 3s. When they lost, their score was 5 out of 24. Nebraska led the Big Ten in adjusted defensive efficiency, holding opponents under 30% from 3-point range and forcing turnovers on nearly 20% of their possessions. The Cornhuskers had much more success against Iowa when they forced Sturtz into tough matches. — Borzello
9:45 PM, CBS
Borzello’s prediction: Arizona, 89-82
Medcalf’s prediction: Arizona, 93-87
How Arkansas can advance to the Elite Eight: His team was struggling with high points at the end of the second round, Darius Acuff Jr.. Never hesitated. The projected NBA Draft lottery pick finished with 36 points on an efficient 11-for-22 shooting from the field and sent Arkansas to its fifth Sweet 16 in six years. The Razorbacks can go ahead if he can get down, draw fouls and create space for his teammates. We saw this blueprint in their win against the Panthers on Saturday. With Acuff covering multiple defenders, his teammates were able to perform the following: malik ivin (14 points, 12 rebounds) and Billy Richmond III (15 points, 10 rebounds) finished with double-doubles, while melek thomas (19 points) also finished in double figures scoring.
Acuff would have to convince Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd that the Wildcats had no chance against Arkansas if he only had one defender on him. Still, on defense, Arkansas is up against the deepest team in the NCAA Tournament field. Every Razorbacks player has to win individual matchups; Richmond and trayvon brazil Will have to match the physicality of a typical Wildcats frontcourt without causing too many upsets.
0:59
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 1 Arizona Game Preview
Check out some stats on Arkansas’ Sweet 16 matchup with Arizona in the men’s NCAA Tournament.
How Arizona can advance to the Elite Eight: Arizona can move forward with a physically draining style that has challenged opponents all season. Utah State cut Arizona’s lead to four points with five minutes to play in Sunday’s second-round meeting — the Wildcats had led by as many as 18 — and mounted a serious comeback attempt in the final minutes. But jaden bradley Drove to the rim and scored, brayden burys Hit big shots, and Arizona got to the free throw line with 22 attempts in the second half. It’s this taxing style that breaks most opponents.
Arizona is tireless. However, to defeat Arkansas, the goal will be to stop the best player in this college basketball postseason: Acuff. If Lloyd can formulate a defensive game plan against Acuff without sending too much help, his guards can avoid early foul trouble, which can have an impact on the game. But this is easier said than done. Acuff can make anyone nervous, especially at critical moments. Arizona can’t do that if it expects to win. – Myron Medcalf
10:05 PM, TBS/TruTV
Borzello’s prediction: Houston, 74-72
Medcalf’s prediction: Illinois, 77-74
How Illinois can advance to the Elite Eight: When Illinois got off to a 14–5 start against VCU in the second round, it looked like the Illini would enter halftime with a substantial lead – then the Rams slowed the game down and increased their defensive pressure entering the break with only seven points. However, ten minutes into the second half they fell behind by 22 points. A game can turn so quickly against Illinois, which has the best offense in America. That’s the advantage the Illini have against a Houston team prone to extensive scoring droughts.
They already have wins over Tennessee and Nebraska, both of whom are top-15 defenses nationally. Houston and its pressure is unparalleled, and the Illini will have a tough offensive attack against the Cougars – but Illinois has proven it never cools down. When shots stop falling for Houston, as they have several times this season, Illinois will advance if its impeccable offense can extend the lead. Houston is not looking to make a comeback, while Illinois looks to increase the margin against its opponents. Whenever an opportunity arises against the Cougars, the Illini have to take advantage of it.
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No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Houston Game Preview
Check out some stats on the matchup between Illinois and Houston in the men’s NCAA Tournament.
How Houston can advance to the Elite Eight: Their defensive strength works to their advantage as they force opponents to play methodically and measuredly. Texas A&M entered its second-round matchup against Houston playing one of the fastest tempos in America, but the Cougars shut out the Aggies in a 65-possession affair and recorded a lowly 87 points per 100 possessions. Houston will have to take the same approach against Illinois.
Kelvin Sampson will need efficient efforts from star guards Kingston Flemings And Emmanuel Sharp. And joseph tuglerLast season’s Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, has spent the final part of his campaign as an emerging offensive threat. But to defeat the best offense in the country, Houston will have to use the same relentless style that has led it to go 7-1 in its last eight games. One of America’s best defensive units will have to find an edge against Illinois, which could turn a stream of shots into a fire hose. Houston’s defensive strength will make the difference against Brad Underwood’s team. — medcalf
