The first half of the Elite Eight is based on Arizona, Illinois, Purdue and Iowa. their tickets are being canceled Thursday. Who could join them in the regional finals of the 2026 men’s NCAA Tournament?
ESPN college basketball reporters Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf make their picks for each Sweet 16 game on Friday, while also breaking down each team’s keys to advancing.
Eastern all the time.
7:10 pm, CBS
Borzello’s prediction: Duke, 73-71
Medcalf’s prediction: Duke, 77-70
How St. John’s can advance to the Elite Eight: Rick Pitino’s game plan against Duke will apparently focus on slowing down cameron boozer. St. John’s has one of the elite defenses in college basketball, but the Red Storm don’t have the kind of length and athleticism that has troubled Boozer at times. Most of the responsibility will fall on individual defensive abilities zubi ejiofor And dylan mitchellThe latter was probably tasked with pursuing Isaiah Evans In half court.
Offensively, the Red Storm need to continue their improved 3-point shooting. Prior to the NCAA Tournament, he had not scored a double-digit 3 in a game since January 10. He has now done so in both tournament games, including Game 11 against Kansas.
How Duke can advance to the Elite Eight: Duke has two areas of advantage over each team: Boozer and his defense. When the Blue Devils turned up the heat defensively against TCU in the second round and began playing through Boozer on the offensive end, they began to dominate the Horned Frogs and completely changed the game. Boozer is the most productive player on the court whenever he plays, although Hall of Fame coach Pitino and Big East Player of the Year Ejiofor will hope to slow him down.
Duke’s defense, the top-ranked unit in adjusted defensive efficiency in KenPom, has very few weaknesses — but the Red Storm are not ideally designed to cause consistent problems for the Blue Devils. They have shot the ball better recently, but they are far from a consistent 3-point shooting team, and they rely too heavily on offensive rebounds and free throws. Duke does an incredible job of limiting opponents in both areas. — Borzello
7:35 p.m., TBS/truTV
Borzello’s prediction: Michigan, 92-83
Medcalf’s prediction: Michigan, 90-80
How Alabama can advance to the Elite Eight: It’s no secret, but Alabama will need to make a barrage of 3s to have any chance of staying close to Michigan. The Crimson Tide leads the nation in 3-pointers per game, 3-point attempts per game and 3-point attempt rate. He shot 19 3s in the second round win over Texas Tech. This will need to continue against Michigan, as it will be extremely difficult to consistently score at the rim. paid off And Morez Johnson Jr.. Defensively, it’s going to be a tough battle. Alabama has given up big scoring efforts to good teams on numerous occasions, and the Crimson Tide rank in the middle of the pack in the SEC in defensive efficiency.
This game will have lots of points and lots of speed. Alabama will not back down from the ongoing game with Michigan, and the shootout may be in the Tide’s hands.
0:51
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Michigan Game Preview
Check out some stats on Michigan’s Sweet 16 matchup with Alabama in the NCAA men’s tournament.
How Michigan can advance to the Elite Eight: When Michigan focuses on its strengths – its frontcourt, size and ability to dominate the paint at both ends of the court – there are few teams in the country capable of competing with the Wolverines for 40 minutes. Mara is a force at the rim defensively, and is becoming a more consistent option on offense, and Yaxel Lendeborg He has shown that he can take over games on offense. Alabama doesn’t have the skill or talent to match Michigan, and it doesn’t offer much rim protection, finishing near the bottom of the SEC in block percentage.
Another key for the Wolverines will be whether roddy gayle jr. And Nimari Burnett Star can slow down Alabama guard lebron fillon jr., who had 29 points in the first round and 12 assists in the second round. He is capable of carrying the Crimson Tide. — Borzello
9:45 PM, CBS
Borzello’s prediction: UConn, 68-64
Medcalf’s prediction: UConn, 70-65
How Michigan State can advance to the Elite Eight: Personnel matchups grab the most headlines during the NCAA Tournament, but coaching matchups are equally – if not more – impactful. During his tenure that began in 1995, Tom Izzo developed an uncanny ability to focus on the opposing team’s top players and create problems for them. This is the Spartans’ ticket to another Elite Eight.
Izzo’s primary mission against UConn is to limit taris reed jrImpact on the game. The Huskies become a different team when he has a dominant presence in the post. If Reed is grabbing offensive rebounds and giving them plenty of second-chance opportunities, Michigan State will be in a tough spot. The good news for the Spartans is that they are connecting on 35.9% of their 3-point attempts and capitalizing on second-chance opportunities along with a No. 10 national ranking in offensive rebounding rate. It will be important for him to hit more 3s, stretch UConn’s defense and create more avenues to the basket. Jeremy Fears Jr.. & Co. will have to give UConn a reason to guard on the perimeter – if the Spartans just allow the Huskies to sit in the lane, challenge shots around the rim and get rebounds, Michigan State could lose.
Izzo has been in this situation before – against better teams – and won. His experience will matter in the match against Dan Hurley.
0:38
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 2 UConn Game Preview
Check out some stats on the matchup between Michigan St. and UConn in the NCAA men’s tournament.
How UConn can advance to the Elite Eight: To defeat Izzo, UConn will have to show like the top-notch defensive organization that held UCLA to just a 39% clip inside the arc in the second round. The Huskies’ win over the Bruins served as a reminder that they can be a great defensive team when they want to. In the Big Ten Tournament, UCLA scored 132 points per 100 possessions in a win over Michigan State. In the round of 32, the Bruins – who played without a leading scorer tyler bilodeau (Knee) – Scored only 57 points, his second lowest total of the season. UCLA Star donovan dent He had nine assists but also finished 2-for-9 shooting with two turnovers. UConn will need to pay the same attention to fear. When he’s comfortable, Michigan State’s offense thrives. The Huskies can’t let that happen.
On committing a crime, Braylon Mullins Could be an X factor. Reed had a double-double against UCLA, but did not put up the historic numbers he did against Furman in the first round (31 points, 27 rebounds). alex karban Recorded a career-high 27 points against the Bruins. solo ball And Silas Demery Jr.. To score two points jointly. If Reed and Curban can create a balanced inside-out attack, Michigan State will have to find a way to disrupt it, which could give Mullins — who is averaging 14.5 points in two NCAA Tournament games so far — more freedom and opportunities to make plays and make plays off the dribble or off-ball screens.
The Huskies have plenty of scoring options, and as long as most of them are effective, they can get back to the Elite Eight. — medcalf
10:10 pm, TBS/TruTV
Borzello’s prediction: Iowa State, 67–65
Medcalf’s prediction: Iowa State, 74–68
How Tennessee can advance to the Elite Eight: To defeat Iowa State, Tennessee will have to play the same disciplined defense that stopped Virginia in the final minutes of Sunday’s second-round game. the work begins felix okparaWho had four blocks against the Cavaliers and converted shots, including a late drive Thijs De Ridder Virginia was intercepted by Okpara during his attempted comeback. According to Synergy Sports data, opposing players made only 30% of their shots around the rim in Sunday’s game against Okpara. He’ll have to protect the rim against Iowa State, which had a significant advantage in paint points against Kentucky (34-20) — but he won’t have to do it alone.
Tennessee has the personnel to handle every face-off defensively. Walls can guard every location. we have to put pressure on them tammin lipseysharpshooter milan momsilovic And joshua jeffersonIf he plays, to win. That defensive effort coupled with exceptional performance Ja’coby gillespie And Nate Ament Tennessee will be the tip of the iceberg for a trip to the Elite Eight.
How Iowa State can advance to the Elite Eight: With or without Jefferson, Iowa State will have the same blueprint against Tennessee: move the ball around to find the best shots on offense, force turnovers with defensive pressure and score on the fast break. Although they did not have Jefferson, who is a game time decision Due to an ankle injury, the Cyclones forced 20 turnovers in their second-round win over Kentucky. Playing through Lipsey – who finished with 26 points, 10 assists and only three turnovers against Kentucky – the Cyclones recorded 150 points per 100 possessions and made 63% of their shots after halftime. They are 18-2 when Lipsy’s assist-to-turnover ratio is 3-to-1 or better. Gillespie and Ament combined to force five turnovers in Tennessee’s second-round win over Virginia. Iowa State could pressure that pair into making the same mistakes Otega Oweh And denzel aberdeen (eight turnovers combined) made up for Kentucky, even though Jefferson sat out one more game. Similarly, cyclones can progress further. — medcalf
