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Joe Lunardi
Don’t let the low number of annual NCAA Tournament bids (4.6) fool you. With only 11 teams, the Big East is the smallest power college basketball conference and has held its own by making a field of 68 with members up by more than 40% over the past four seasons. Thanks first to Jay Wright and more recently to Danny Hurley, the Big East also historically wins when it dances. UConn’s 12-0 tournament mark in 2023 and 2024 is a large part of the league’s best-in-class NCAA winning percentage. But the situation is changing and it is not for the good.
Two years ago, the Big East suffered losses to at-large bid stealers and lost potential NCAA invitations to Seton Hall and St. John’s. Last season’s five bids looked great until no Big East team, even the 2-seed Red Storm, reached the first weekend. And this season’s non-conference numbers have declined.
UConn and St. John’s are the only NCAA locks as the Big East begins its conference schedule on Dec. 13, and it’s possible the league will receive the fewest tournament bids in its proud history.
final four contenders
UConn has the potential to capture its third national title in four seasons. Of course, that sentence is much easier to type than it is to make it true, especially in a season that projects to feature much tougher competition in March than the Huskies will face in 2023 or 2024.
Potential Tournament Teams
Before the season, most would have placed St. John’s in the Final Four tier. But the Red Storm have been just routinely good – not special – in the first five weeks. They remain an almost-lock tournament team, but even getting a top-four seed is no better than a 50/50 proposition at this point.
Potential Tournament Teams
Villanova Wildcats
seton hall pirates
Creighton Bluejays
The Big East bubble may be shrinking overall. Villanova and Seton Hall are looking to spend the winter hovering between the “Last Four In” and “First Four Out” categories — that is, the No. 65-72 range. And Creighton needs to move quickly to join them.
sleeper team
The Bulldogs were picked ninth in the preseason Big East poll, but Thad Matta’s people have other ideas. Early wins over South Carolina and Virginia should hold, and the middle of the conference should yield more wins than expected heading into the season. If Butler can pick up an extra win or two against the top tier, landing on the right side of the bubble is very possible.
long shots
Providence Friars
xavier musketeers
Georgetown Hoyas
Marquette Golden Eagles
depaul blue demons
The first three teams on this list could advance to the bubble conversation around February. Marquette and DePaul just don’t have talent. The problem with relying on true upward mobility is that the Big East could see a serious decline in its teams’ chances to advance their Quad 1 resumes.
Major sports to watch
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December 23: Villanova at Seton Hall. The Big East’s two most unlikely bubble teams face off early in conference play.
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Feb. 6: UConn at St. John’s. The first of two major meetings between the Huskies and the Red Storm as the Big East plays a true round-robin.
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Feb. 21: UConn at Villanova. Nova’s 1-5 streak against UConn is about to change under Kevin Willard.
