Matthew Stafford vs. Drake Maye: Inside the odds, how to bet the MVP race

The race for NFL MVP is extremely tight, with two quarterbacks leading the race for the award. experienced Matthew Stafford and breakout star drake may have emerged as the current favorite in a field that also includes josh allen, Justin Herbert And trevor lawrence,

We asked ESPN betting reporter Doug Greenberg to give us the inside scoop on how the NFL MVP race has evolved at sportsbooks, and ESPN betting analyst Pamela Maldonado to weigh in on the leading candidates and offer her picks.

Doug Greenberg: Leading the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns for 16 weeks, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford He may be about to receive the first MVP award of his historic career; Heading into Saturday of Week 17, the 37-year-old has a whopping -360 odds to win NFL MVP, according to DraftKings.

Stafford began the campaign with +3500 odds to earn the NFL’s highest individual honor, and slowly worked his way up the odds board, commensurate with his consistently excellent play and the Rams’ continued dominance over the NFC. He first became the favorite for the award in late November and, despite a minor hiccup, has maintained that position.

But as most futures bettors know by now, awards markets are highly subjective, and anything can happen, especially as Los Angeles continues to compete for the NFC West title and several AFC teams compete for the conference’s top playoff seed.

Stafford’s primary challenger in the race for the award is new England Patriots quarterback drake mayWhich was a favorite as recently as early December. Now, Maye is +300 for MVP, and bettors across the market are praying that the young newcomer doesn’t get overtaken by the veteran.

At BetMGM, Maye is the biggest liability in the MVP market. The same is true at DraftKings, where sportsbook director Johnny Avello says Mayes is considered a “pretty good loss” and the book favors “Stafford” or really almost any other candidate. Avello says his beleaguered team was quick to make adjustments to Mayes, Stafford and other players as needed, but punters couldn’t get enough of the young quarterback and New England’s resurgence.

“We couldn’t stop the May train, we just couldn’t,” Avello told ESPN. “And that’s not just for Mays, but that’s for the Patriots in general. I mean, we’ve been betting on them all year to win the division, to win the Super Bowl, to win the conference. We’ve got money everywhere on them.”

Although the MVP competition has mostly been a two-man race, there are three other players who probably shouldn’t be discounted: buffalo bill cubby josh allen (30-1), Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert (75-1), and jacksonville jaguars cubby trevor lawrence (75-1).

Allen, the reigning MVP, has had another strong campaign that will take on additional meaning if the Bills can overtake the Pats for the AFC East title in the final weeks of the season. Likewise, Herbert’s Chargers and Lawrence’s Jaguars have outside shots at the conference’s No. 1 playoff seed, which will help their arguments, given their strong play — especially for Lawrence, which went from 500-1 to its current line in just three weeks.

“The MVP doesn’t just sit in isolation,” Avello said. “I think it takes a whole team effort, at least, that’s what happened. You can’t have this tremendous year and have a team that terrible.”

Stafford or Maye: How to Bet on the MVP Race

Maldonado: With two weeks left in the regular season, the MVP race is effectively down to the middle Matthew Stafford (-215) and drake may (+175). Both are still playing for their respective division titles, have made the playoffs and have legitimate cases, but the gap between them is still real.

Matthew Stafford: still the benchmark

His case is quite old. Los Angeles Rams Are 11-4 with a +158-point differential, and an offense that runs straight through Stafford. He leads the NFL in passing yards (4,179) and passing touchdowns (40) with only five interceptions. That combination is all that matters in MVP voting.

When the Rams score, it’s because Stafford is pushing the ball downfield and finishing drives. The divergence concerns that existed in November have largely disappeared. When it matters, Stafford is steady, productive and effective.

Drake May: A special year with a narrow path

Mays’ season continues to be impressive, especially in context. Nearly 4,000 passing yards, elite efficiency, a league-best QBR and a new England Patriots The team that finished 14-3, winning the AFC East. From a trajectory perspective, this looks like the start of something special in the long term. From an MVP perspective, his resume is still short.

What the betting odds say, plus my predictions

If New England finishes 14-3 and the Rams finish 13-4, voters will notice, but it won’t eliminate the scoring difference. Stafford still has more passing scores than Mays with two games left. That’s a huge divider, and MVP voters rarely ignore that kind of difference unless the efficiency gap is too great or the favorite is about to collapse. with atlanta falcons And Arizona Cardinals With the Rams on deck, it’s hard to imagine that happening.

The betting market clearly reflects that difference. Stafford, as a heavy favorite, signals that voters see him as the true leader, while Mays is seen as a viable challenger rather than a true co-favorite. That split tells us that this race is not a close one. Stafford is in control, and Mays needs help and a strong finish to turn it around.

Both are still meaningful game plays, but this neutralizes urgency as a differentiator, leaving production, responsibility and impact as the key points. On those fronts, Stafford still leads.

Prediction: Stafford holds service. Even if the Patriots win their division and the Rams don’t, it gives Maye a narrative boost, but by itself, it’s not enough to overcome Stafford’s clear edge in scoring, volume and offensive impact unless Stafford falters.

The odds reflect where this race really stands, the guy who flirted with retirement is on pace to break his passing touchdown record (41), his best season since winning Super Bowl LVI.