LeBron vs. Father Time: How James has changed, by the numbers

Lebron James There is no other player like him in NBA history. career scoring leader He set another record when he became the first person to do so play 23 seasons In the league.

The 2025-26 version of James is also like no other previous version she herselfsciatica Forced him to miss opening night For the first time in his career. after sitting out Los Angeles Lakers‘In the first 14 games, he has shown more inconsistency and a different playing style than ever before.

With his 41st birthday just 12 days away, he looks mortal. And he’s clearly outshining his teammates luka doncic And Austin Reeves 18-7 for the Lakers.

Let’s take a look at how James looks different this season than the last two decades — and what it means for the Lakers, who need an elite version of the future Hall of Famer if they want to contend in a top-heavy Western Conference.

Go to a topic:
Surprising drop in scoring
a different playing style
His forecast for the rest of the season
The James-Doncic-Reeves trio hasn’t worked

Low points for career points leader

For any other player in NBA history, playing at age 40 would be a remarkable accomplishment. Scoring 17.6 points per game would be phenomenal. The previous scoring leader at this age was Kareem Abdul-JabbarWho averaged 10.1 points in an age-41 season at the end of a long, gradual aging process. His last season with at least 24 points per game came when he was 33.

In contrast, James averaged at least 25 points for 20 consecutive years after his rookie campaign, falling only slightly to 24.4 last season.

Points per game year-to-date from scoring leaders

That longevity and consistency helped James overtake Abdul-Jabbar on the career leaderboard. The Hall of Fame center scored more points during each player’s peak age range, but James got a head start by entering the NBA right out of high school and never really saw a decline until now.

James’ 6.8 PPG drop is the largest among the 47 players who averaged at least 20 PPG last season. (At the same time, Reeves’ 7.6 ppg increase This is the most for any 20-point scorer last season.)

A big part of that decline is James’ decline in historical consistency. This season he has three games with at least 20 points, but he also has games with 13, 11, 10, and eight points. That eight-point outing, most famously, ended His record 1,297-game streak Double-digit points in the regular season.

Generally speaking, production in the NBA is a function of efficiency and volume — and James’ decline in scoring is a result of problems on both ends of that equation. GeniusIQ tracks expected effective field goal percentage for every player in the NBA based on factors like shot distance and defender location. And in every season of the tracking era (since 2013-14) so ​​far, James has outperformed his expected eFG%.

However, in 2025-26, James has a little performed poorly For the first time his shot quality came on record.

a different playing style

In addition to his decline in efficiency, James is also getting fewer opportunities to score. In each of the previous seasons of his career, his usage rate was at least 28%, and he was ranked among the league’s top dozen players in each of his first 20 seasons. In his 21st and 22nd seasons, he dropped slightly to 21st and 14th respectively.

But if James had had enough playing time to qualify in his 23rd season, he would have ranked only 47th with a 24.2% usage rate. Like he was next to superstars Donovan Mitchell, Victor Wembanyama And Stephen Curry Usage in the previous season on the leaderboard; Now he is the number 2 option jerami grant, jaren jackson jrAnd derrick white,

James has never run his team’s offense so short before. In other words:

• According to GeniusIQ, James touches the ball 4.32 minutes per 100 possessions. His previous lowest time in the tracking era was 7.23 minutes; In the last season it was 7.56. This year-to-year decline is the second-largest decline for any rotation player this season. (is the eldest tyler herroNow playing in a new offensive system in Miami.)

• According to GeniusIQ, James has 8.0 drives per 100 possessions, down from 14.5 last season. Their previous lowest level was 11.3.

• According to GeniusIQ, James is using 7.1 separations per 100 possessions, down from 11.4 last season. He has never been below 9.1 before.

• According to GeniusIQ, when he is the ball handler, James is getting 10.7 picks per 100 possessions, a 59% drop from last season’s 26.2.

The pattern is the same in each game type; Basically, each graph of James’ usage statistics looks like this:

There is some year-to-year variation from the beginning of the tracking era to last season, but generally there is tremendous stability over that period – especially considering that James was between 29 and 40 years old at the time. But then comes the 2025-26 season and there is a sudden decline.

When James runs the offense he is still productive and efficient. He ranks in the 83rd percentile in ISO scoring and the 92nd percentile in picks. He’s not getting nearly as many opportunities, but he’s picking his spots more than ever.

James’ forecast for the rest of the season

What does this new-look version of James mean for the rest of his season and the Lakers? Has Father Time really caught up with the man who seemed to defy its influence for so long?

The good news for James is that his shooting will likely improve as the season continues – even if not quite up to his norms of the past decade. His true shooting percentage is 53.9%, which would be his worst performance in an entire season since he was a rookie, but full season statistics may obscure the streak in small stretches. Within the last decade, James had the worst shooting marks in a nine-game span:

• March 2025

• November to December 2024

• December 2023 to January 2024

• October to November 2022

• December 2019 to January 2020

• January to February 2018

• february 2016

• December 2015

In each previous instance, he recovered from his slump and finished the season well. Three of those seasons ended with trips to the NBA Finals. And even though he’s dealing with unprecedented age and injury problems, there’s no reason to think he can’t bounce back over the next several months.

game

Stephen A.: LeBron’s winning pass is the perfect example of why he’s a top-2 player

Stephen A. Smith credited LeBron James for ignoring his double-digit scoring streak and making a pass to Rui Hachimura for the winning 3-pointer.

For example, James’ free throw percentage has dropped to a career-low 62%. He missed two technical free throws against Phoenix on Sunday (before making two of three from the line to win the game after a 3-point foul in the final seconds). But it would be extremely strange if a career 74% shooter after more than 11,000 attempts suddenly started struggling so badly from the line.

James also made only 29% of his 3-point attempts. He hit 37% of his 3-point attempts over the past five seasons, and such a sudden, dramatic decline is unlikely, plus he’s making a high percentage of his midrange jumpers. GeniusIQ’s advanced posture data shows that there have been no apparent changes in James’ body measurements, suggesting that his legs have deserted him on long-distance efforts.

Even though James’ production may approach his career benchmarks, however, his play Style Possibly changed for the better.

Data about usage and game types are “sticky” – meaning, in statistical language, initial trends hold true over time. In other words, don’t expect James to start driving and isolating again and using dozens of screens per game.

Here’s another data point supporting that theory: James has tallied fewer than five picks only five times out of nearly 1,000 games logged in the GeniusIQ database. One was in November 2013, one was in the 2023 playoffs, and three have come this season.

That is not an accident; This is the new normal.

James’s impact on the Lakers

Another strong indicator of James’ current form and role is what his own coaching staff thinks of him. And there’s a revealing statistic: In the games in which James, Doncic and Reaves have appeared together, James has not played a minute without at least one of the other two. According to PBP statistics, the distribution of those seven games is as follows:

It makes sense that Lakers coach JJ Redick would structure his rotation with at least two of his big three players on the court at all times; In fact, this lineup accounts for 90% of the Lakers’ minutes in these games. (The 10 minutes without any member of the big three were all at low leverage.)

Just last season, Redick generally made sure to stagger Doncic and James after the midseason trade for the East. James played 55 minutes alone in a game with all three creators in 2024-25.

Yet this season, Redick is outshining Doncic and Reeves. It’s a logical move, given Reeves’ star turn and the desire to not put such a burden on the soon-to-be 41-year-old, but it still hints at James’ placement in L.A.’s offensive hierarchy.

The most worrying thing for Los Angeles is that its three biggest programs are not performing as expected. When James, Doncic and Reaves have shared the court this season, the Lakers have gone under 10 points in 132 minutes.

This continues a worrying trend. In the 2024–25 regular season, that trio outscored their opponents by just two total points in 423 minutes. And then the Lakers were eliminated in the playoffs by a margin of minus 24 in five games. minnesota timberwolves,

Overall, the James-Doncic-Reeves trio is minus-32 in 695 minutes together. According to, its net rating is negative-2.2 cleaning glassJames, Doncic and Reeves are less than the sum of their parts,

Defense has surprisingly become an issue when three offensive-oriented stars share the court. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Lakers’ 120.5 defensive rating in those 695 minutes would put them near the bottom of the overall team rankings.

But crime is also a cause for concern. The theory of the Lakers’ case is that their offense with Doncic, James and Reaves could be so dominant that it could compensate for any defensive weaknesses. But instead, the Big Three have an offensive rating of only 118.3 – a good number, sure, but far from an impressive rating. This is similar to what the Spurs’ ninth-ranked attack has done this season.

For comparison, look at another famous trio of star playwrights. In his limited playing time in the 2020–21 season, the Brooklyn Nets’ Kevin Durant, james harden And kyrie irving His offensive rating was 129.5 – more than 10 points ahead of the Lakers’ Big Three.

Or see what Doncic and Reeves have accomplished playing together Without James: Plus-15.3 net rating and 122.9 offensive rating in 585 minutes. That duo struggled last season, but Doncic and Reaves have completely outscored their opponents in the regular season when James is not sharing the court with them.

Then again, the ultimate problem isn’t that James has finally started to show his age. The problem is that James, Doncic and Reaves don’t have what it takes to compete with the best teams in the West.