February 12, 2026
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Key Super Bowl intel through the lens of NFL Next Gen Stats

Sagar08 mins

  • Dj Bien-AimeFebruary 7, 2026, 06:00 am ET

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      DJ Bien-Aime covers the Houston Texans for ESPN. He joined ESPN in July 2022 after covering the New York Jets for the New York Daily News. He is a former athlete who finished his college career at Louisville. You can catch the DJ on his show “Talkin’ Texans” on ESPN Radio.

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Remember back to early September, when 32 NFL teams were preparing to race at Levi’s Stadium, home of Super Bowl LX, in Santa Clara, California.

Now, only two are left – with Seattle Seahawks ready to take on new England Patriots on Sunday for the Lombardi Trophy.

The last time the Seahawks played the Patriots in the Super Bowl was 11 years ago. malcolm butler caught Russell Wilson To effectively end the game, a game that will go down as one of the most memorable in Super Bowl history.

Most of the players from that game have retired, but the impact still remains.

This year’s Seahawks defense is very similar to the 2014 Super Bowl team – both teams allowed the fewest points in the NFL in the regular season. On the other side of the ball, Seattle has been reliant on the quarterback throughout the playoffs Sam DarnoldThat has smothered defenses to the tune of a 122 passer rating.

For the Patriots, they are led by a second-year quarterback drake may. His regular season success that led to him being made an MVP finalist hasn’t completely translated to the postseason – where he has four touchdowns and a 55% completion percentage in three games, and he’s also been sacked 15 times. In the regular season, Mayes totaled 35 touchdowns while leading the league in completion percentage (72%).

In the postseason, the Patriots defense has more than done its part. It has allowed 8.6 points per game in the playoffs – with los angeles chargers It became the next closest team after losing 16 points to New England in the opening round.

Here’s a look at some NFL Next Gen stats that could reveal what the Super Bowl will be decided:

Darnold under pressure

Throughout the playoffs, the Patriots have put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. against houston texans In the divisional round, quarterback CJ Stroud Went 2 of 16 passing for 13 yards with one interception when pressured.

In the wild-card round, the Patriots defeated the Chargers at quarterback Justin Herbert Three completions on eight attempts with six sacks. in the AFC Championship Game against denver broncosquarterback jarrett stidham Completed one pass for 4 yards on 10 attempts when under pressure.

However, Darnold has avoided turnovers and has drawn under 21 pressure dropbacks through two postseason games. He went 7 of 16 for 117 yards and four touchdowns (five sacks). in the NFC Championship Game against Los Angeles RamsHe threw three touchdowns under pressure (5 of 11 for 102 yards).

It’s been a completely different story from the regular season, as Darnold committed turnovers on a league-high 7.2% of his pressured dropbacks — including six interceptions and five fumble losses. The Patriots have generated four turnovers due to pressure through three postseason games after committing three such turnovers during the regular season (third fewest).

But protecting Darnold has been effective. Despite facing the second-highest blitz rate (35.1%) this season, the Seahawks allowed only a 29.2% pressure rate (fifth lowest) and 38 unblocked pressures (seventh lowest). Every Seahawks starting offensive lineman finished in the top 12 at his position in pressure-rate allowed.

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Mays was sacked on five of his 11 pressure dropbacks in the AFC Championship Game, resulting in his second-highest pressure-to-sack rate (45.5%) in a game in his career, behind only his 62.5% rate (eight pressures, five sacks) in the divisional round against the Texans.

Mays has been sacked 15 times this postseason, the most by any player to reach the Super Bowl since the AFL–NFL merger in 1970. He has been sacked on 48.4% of pressured dropbacks this postseason, more than double his 20.3% rate during the regular season.

patriots left tackle Will Campbell Five pressures have been allowed on 30 pass blocks in the AFC Championship (16.7%) and now four or more pressures have been allowed in every game this postseason. Campbell is tasked with a tough matchup against both Broncos pass rushers Nick Bonitto (four pressures allowed) and the Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr.. (Three pressures allowed, two sacks) 14 times each. Bonito generated the second-highest pressure rate (20.2%, minimum 250 pass rushes) in the NFL during the regular season, while Anderson ranked third-highest (19.5%).

However, it won’t be easy against a Seattle defense that ranks seventh in sacks (47).

JSN’s dominance in the entire region

There is a detailed answer for the Seahawks Jackson Smith-Njigba This season has been tough for the teams. The All-Pro wide receiver led the NFL in receiving yards (1,793); He led the league with 1,378 yards passing after leading the league with 956 yards when aligned in the slot last season.

In the NFC Championship Game, Smith-Njigba totaled 153 receiving yards, including 105 from out wide, and he also caught his first career touchdown when aligned in the backfield. The Patriots will be on high alert trying to find out where he is.

Smith-Njigba played out wide on 81.3% of snaps this season, but in the NFC Championship Game he was in the slot at a season-high 42.1% rate. This could be a factor if Seattle has an offensive coordinator. Clint Kubiak The All-Pro cornerback decides to ditch his star receiver. Christian Gonzalez.

Key matchup: Pats’ Jumbo vs. Seahawks’ nickel personnel

The Patriots’ offense has used jumbo personnel on 18.4% of their snaps since Week 11 (115 of 624 including playoffs). New England scored a league-high 13 touchdowns from rushing during the regular season, while averaging 6.1 yards per game (third most). The biggest beneficiaries are Patriots running backs Ramondre Stevenson. He rushed for 225 yards and scored four touchdowns on 23 jumbo sets this season.

Stevenson’s 9.8 yards per carry were a full three yards more than any other player in 2025, and the most by any player with at least 20 such carries in a season during the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). The Patriots had 10 touchdowns off the bench as a team, two more than any other offense (Steelers, eight).

The Seahawks rarely faced jumbo personnel throughout the regular season (26 plays, fourth fewest). But on 46.2% of those snaps he matched jumbo looks with nickel personnel.

more meaning

Mays’ downfield passes were his best this season (10 or more air yards), leading the league with 112 completions, while also recording a league-high 61.2% completion percentage. He also threw 19 touchdowns on downfield passes, tying Darnold and the Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford for most.

But in the playoffs, Mays is 9 of 26 on passes traveling more than 10 yards (34%). If Mays can’t break it up, expect him to run – as he has recorded the third-most scramble yards this season with 423. He was particularly effective when he was ready to run early.

In first- and second-down rushing, Mays led the NFL with 46 carries, 330 yards and 16 first downs (tied for most with Kansas City). patrick mahomes). His 10.7% scramble run rate on initial downs was actually higher than his 9.1% rate on third downs, making him one of 14 qualified quarterbacks who ran more often on first and second downs than on third down.

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