Key questions shaping the 2026 women’s NCAA bracket in March

A year ago, women’s college basketball was decimated after a tumultuous offseason. Conference realignment had changed the landscape across the country, the rivalry (and the Pac-12) had broken up, and the quad system was being implemented. This offseason was a comparatively quiet time in women’s college hoops.

That changed on Monday with the start of the 2025-26 season. The focus returns to the court, and everything that happens from this point forward has a direct impact on the NCAA Tournament standings of every team in the country. With weekly updates beginning Tuesday, Bracketology will cover the changing tides of the tournament field throughout the season. Once January arrives, we will project a 68-team field twice a week through the end of the regular season.

But before things go too fast, let’s take a look at some of the questions that will impact the bracket from now until Selection Sunday on March 15.

How will the Big Ten fare in non-conference play?

of espn precision bracketology projection 13 Big Ten teams were involved. This would break the record for teams from one conference making the NCAA Tournament, which the Big Ten had set the previous season with 12. Four of those 13 – nebraska, oregon, Illinois And minnesota — Are a 9-seed or lower. This means that entering 13 is far from automatic.

With the nervousness that naturally comes from playing each other during the league season, these teams have something to gain before conference play begins. That makes the performance of Big Ten teams in November and December paramount if they are going to reach that record number. A good non-conference performance will boost the individual profiles of teams like the Ducks and Gophers and the collective net ranking and strength of schedule for each team in the Big Ten when they start playing each other. A michigan victory over Notre Dame Or YukonFor example, it will be included on the Wolverines’ resume, making Illinois’ win over the Wolverines on January 15 that much more impressive.

The Big Ten is deep. How that depth translates into NCAA Tournament bids will be determined over the next two months.

Who will step up for South Carolina?

chloe kitsch‘Season-ending knee injury leaves a hole South CarolinaThe starting lineup is. It also reduces coach Don Staley’s depth in the frontcourt. In South Carolina’s two exhibition games, Staley went with a three-guard lineup. Tania Latson, Tessa Johnson And raven johnson6-foot-3 sophomore Joyce Edwards and 6-6 senior and Mississippi State transfer Madina Okot Providing shape. This is a tremendous starting five and it’s why the Gamecocks remain the Final Four favorite.

The concern is that there are only two frontcourt reserves – 6-4 seniors. Mariam Dauda and 6-5 sophomore year adhel tac – Averaged just 10.2 minutes per game a season ago. The best South Carolina teams of recent times were impressive and intimidating inside. Unless Staley creates bigger roles for players who haven’t filled them before, this will be a more guard-oriented team.

With Latson leading the way – he scored 20 points in Monday’s season opener – that could be enough to get to Phoenix and the Final Four. Edwards could also become a star. But Okot’s production — he scored 12 points on 4-of-5 shooting and had four rebounds in 17 minutes on Monday — could be the biggest key to making up for what was lost with Kitts (10.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg) and helping South Carolina retain the No. 1 seed in March.

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Ta’Niya Latson talks senior season goal, 40-point win over No. 2 South Carolina

Latson discussed the Gamecocks’ three-headed monster on the perimeter, including his ability to score and facilitate, while making his national title intentions clear.

What does USC look like without Watkins?

is not there juju watkins Out for the season as she recovers from a knee injury she will face in the 2025 NCAA Tournament, but six of the seven players in last season’s rotation also won’t suit up. USC In this weather. II kennedy smith He is the only returner to average more than 13 minutes per game. This is basically a brand new team.

The talent is there, with two highly regarded transfers cara dunn And london jonesand fresher jazzy davidsonWhom some people have called almost as revolutionary as Watkins. But with so many unknowns and new faces, USC is the most mysterious team in the AP Top 25.

The pendulum could swing big in either direction: The Trojans could push UCLA to the top of the Big Ten and compete for a top-four seed, or they could find themselves fighting through a challenging non-conference schedule and the challenge of a Big Ten that is closer to a team on the bubble than a team hosting NCAA Tournament games.

How does the SEC race affect the top two seed lines?

No conference in the country is as good as the SEC at the top level. Five of the league’s 16 teams finished on the top two seed lines in the preseason bracketology. Two–South Carolina and texas – Are the No. 1 seeds. The foundation of the NCAA Tournament field can be built on what the SEC standings look like in March.

The key will be whether oklahoma And TennesseeEach of whom are projected as No. 2 seeds could upset the Gamecocks or Longhorns. South Carolina will visit Norman on Jan. 22. Tennessee will host Texas on Feb. 15. A loss in either game would strengthen the SEC standings, but wouldn’t hurt South Carolina or Texas’ resumes as much as it would help the Sooners and Lady Vols. This is the type of scenario that will help the SEC dominate the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds.

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Tennessee Lady Volunteers vs. NC State Wolfpack: Game Highlights

Tennessee Lady Volunteers vs. NC State Wolfpack: Game Highlights

Which mid-majors will emerge as big candidates?

Since the Ivy League has submitted multiple bids each of the last two seasons, let’s start there. princeton And Colombia Each is in position to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. To do this, they will likely have to finish first and second in the league standings and then meet in the Ivy Madness finals.

amid the missouri valley races undead state And belmont Can also submit multiple bids. The Bruins play Tennessee. kentuckyPrinceton and ruler In non-conference. If they can win one of those games, and if the Racers win the conference tournament, the MVC could have two NCAA Tournament teams for the first time since 2021.

Richmond is a big favorite in the Atlantic 10, but george mason Threatens for the top spot and also looks worthy of the NCAA Tournament.