last time indianapolis colts They were considered such a strong Super Bowl contender in 2014, when they entered Week 10 with 10–1 odds to win the title. They made it to the AFC Championship Game that year.
The Colts started Tuesday with 12-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, and after the acquisition it became 11-1 Sauce Gardner From New York Jets For two first-round draft picks.
The Colts (7-2) clearly believe they have the strongest chance to win their first Lombardi Trophy since the 2006 season as they went all-in on the 25-year-old Gardner, whom the Jets made the highest-paid cornerback in the offseason.
Indianapolis travels to Berlin, Germany to face off this weekend atlanta falcons (9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network), but it’s uncertain whether Gardner will be ready in time to play. The Colts are hopeful.
Moving the 2022 fourth overall draft pick wasn’t the only big deal the Jets made ahead of the deadline at 4 p.m. ET Tuesday. He also played defensive tackle quinnan williams till dallas cowboys For a second-round pick in 2026, a first-rounder in 2027 and a defensive tackle Mazie Smith,
The Jets are firmly in rebuilding mode and have accumulated several high draft picks. But how quickly can they change things?
Colts reporter Stephen Holder, Jets reporter Rich Cimini, NFL Draft analyst Matt Miller and NFL analysts Matt Bowen and Aaron Schatz break down the trade from different perspectives. And Cowboys reporter Todd Archer weighs in on whether the trade puts Micah ParsonsThe Two-Green Bay Deal in a New Perspective.
Do the Colts see this as the last piece of the Super Bowl puzzle?
holder: Possibly. This is their strongest roster under GM Chris Ballard, who has presided over only one playoff win in nine seasons.
He hasn’t made many big changes like this and whenever he has, the results have been mixed. Colts trade first-round pick for defensive tackle deforest buckner in 2020, and that move made him one of the team’s best players over the past five years. But Ballard’s move to acquire the quarterback carson wentz The first-round and third-round picks in 2021 haven’t been good.
Ballard, who is making perhaps the boldest move of his career, should have a lot to say about the Colts’ current situation and their expectations for the postseason.
What does this trade mean for the Jets?
simini: They’re out of the sauce business, but they have plenty of juice for the 2026 and 2027 offseasons — five first-round picks, including a 2027 first-rounder from the Williams trade. This gives them ample draft capital to land a quarterback, their biggest need.
After a 1–7 start, the Jets’ new regime – coach Aaron Glenn and GM Darren Maugi – acknowledged the roster was weaker than initially anticipated. This will help them fill many holes. Former Colts wide receiver gets team’s starting spot adonai michel Was involved in business. He is an underperforming receiver with upside, under contract through 2027. he joined John Mechie IIIAcquired last week in a renovated receiving corps.
Basically, the Jets are focused on the future. This is the downside of the trade: How can current players stay motivated knowing that the front office is already thinking about 2026?
If the Jets don’t trade up, which non-QB picks should they target with their five first-round picks over the next two years?
miller: Quarterback is obviously the Jets’ biggest need but if we’re talking non-QB, New York needs to rebuild a defense that is now without its two best players. Class of 2026, defensive tackle peter woods (Clemson) fits the team’s needs up front. Should the Jets focus on the edge, Ruben Benn Jr. (Miami) is playing like a top-five prospect with a three-down skill set that fits perfectly with Aaron Glenn’s defense. Offensively, this is still a team that needs skill-position talent to ease the load on wide receiver Garrett Wilson. Could we see the Jets add him to a deep threat jordan tyson (Arizona State)?
Looking at 2027 – a draft class that looks to be one of the strongest in a long time – the Jets will have three first-round choices to use on elite prospects like receivers Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State) and Ryan Williams (Alabama), as well as edge rusher Collin Simmons (Texas).
Why did the Jets trade Gardner just five months after making him the highest-paid cornerback?
simini: They weren’t actively shopping Gardner, but the offer was too good to refuse, especially for a rebuilding team. When he signed a $120 million extension in June, he was touted as a foundational player. Life changes fast in the NFL. Maybe the shine has worn off. By most metrics, Gardner is having a good season, but he hasn’t played at an elite level since his historic rookie season in 2021. They have no inhibitions; In fact, he has only had three in 55 career games and his penalty rate has increased.
Clearly, the Jets saw a replaceable player. they are newbie Azareyeh ThomasWho replaced Gardner (concussion) in the last game and played well.
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Rich Eisen approves Jets return in Sauce Gardner trade
Rich Eisen reacts to the Jets’ trade of Sauce Gardner to the Colts for two first-round picks and Adonai Mitchell.
Does this trade impact how we should view the Cowboys’ Micah Parsons trade returns (two Packers first-round picks and kenny clarke,
archer: Are we trying to say that Jerry Jones has performed better than expected now? I can’t go there because of the timing of those trades. The Colts were up against the trade deadline. The Cowboys negotiated Parsons well into the summer before the draft when they felt a long-term deal was unlikely.
A move in the spring would have given the Cowboys a better chance to fill the holes in their defense. Taking advantage of their 7–2 start to the season, Indianapolis made a win-now trade for a young cornerback. Cowboys went about their business relying on a lot of parts that didn’t yet come together. The real value of a Parsons trade will be based on what the Cowboys get with the two first-rounders, either with the players or with a higher pick.
How does Gardner fit into the Colts’ defensive system under Lou Anarumo?
Bowen:Gardner has the coverage characteristics to easily switch to Anarumo’s scheme. The Colts play a lot of man coverage, which complements Gardner’s press skills. He is a defender who has the ability to challenge receivers immediately. And Anarumo can now utilize Gardner in specific matchups, especially on third downs, where the Colts have played man on 62.2% of opponent dropbacks, eighth-most in the league.
Let’s not forget that Gardner can also patrol the flat in Indy’s Cover 2 look. He also has the lower body agility to play the ball in three-deep coverage. And we can see Anarumo using Gardner to lock down the back side of zone coverage. While Gardner has been more of a ball disruptor than a playmaker during his time in the NFL, his presence in the Colts secondary certainly gives Anarumo more flexibility as a defensive playcaller.
What do the metrics say about Gardner’s level of play?
Schatz: Gardner had great performances in his first few seasons for the Jets. He’s returned to excellence this year, provided you adjust for who he’s covering. However, cornerbacks are extremely inconsistent in every possible metric, and Gardner is no exception with average play in 2024.
Gardner ranked eighth among qualifying cornerbacks in my cornerback coverage DVOA metric in both his rookie year of 2022 and his sophomore season, 2023. Last year, however, he fell to 64th. He allowed 9.6 yards of coverage per play, one of the worst figures in the league; His coverage DVOA was better because he was not targeted as frequently compared to other starting cornerbacks.
This year, Gardner is back to eighth among qualifying cornerbacks. What is important here is the opponent’s adjustment. Before the adjustment, Gardner would have an average coverage DVOA. However, Gardner has covered opposing WR1s in 64% of his coverage snaps, tied for first in the league with Patrick Surtain II. There’s a lot of DK Metcalf, George Pickens (Siddy Lamb is injured) and Mike Evans. So once we adjust for opponent strength, Gardner once again stands out as one of the top cornerbacks in coverage.
Gardner was recently signed to a record four-year, $120.4 million contract extension. What is the cap impact on the Jets and Colts?
holder: This deal would be relatively manageable for the Colts in the short term. Because Gardner’s signing bonus was paid by the Jets, and because many guaranteed options are attached to the bonus, the salary-cap implications for a contract of this size are minimal.
The Colts will pay nearly half of Gardner’s $1.25 million base salary in 2025. They will pay him more than $25 million in 2026, but the cap figure is only $9.5 million because option bonuses can be prorated over the life of a contract.
Gardner will have a base salary of $13.5 million in 2027, which, when combined with various bonuses, will bring his cap figure to $20.9 million. In 2028, 2029 and 2030, Gardner’s cap numbers are set at $26.2 million, $36.1 million and $36.1 million. Those numbers could be reduced or eliminated through restructuring or by releasing Gardner.
