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Kevin Pelton
multiple authors
which can be the biggest Deal before Thursday’s NBA trade deadlineThe cleveland cavaliers and this LA Clippers An agreement was reached on the exchange of point guards on Tuesday. darius garland And james harden In a one-for-one deal that also sends the Clips a 2026 second-round pick, According to ESPN’s Shams Charania.
Both teams are hoping this trade of 2025 All-Stars with roughly similar salaries will produce better results during disappointing campaigns. The Cavaliers are battling for position in the middle of the Eastern Conference playoff race after topping the standings a season ago, while the Clippers’ recent hot streak has only landed them in the play-in tournament after a dreadful start.
Let’s break down the implications of Cleveland and Los Angeles exchanging point guards and what it means for the rest of the 2025-26 season and beyond.
cleveland cavaliers to get:
g james harden
LA Clippers to get:
G Darius Garland
2026 second round pick
grade
Cleveland Cavaliers: b
What this deal means for the Cavaliers: The more I think about it, the more I like that Cleveland added Harden to shake up a team that ranks eighth in offensive rating this season after leading the league with 64 wins in 2024-25.
Garland’s toe injury Has been a major factor in that decline. He has been dealing with toe problems since April, and offseason surgery has not resolved them. Garland suffered a left toe injury shortly after returning in November, and is now out with a sprain in the big toe on his right foot.
When he’s available, Garland is shooting just 36% on 3s, down from 40% a season ago. His usage rate has also declined, while Garland’s steal rate will be his lowest since his rookie season. Those struggles are reflected in the team’s performance. The Cavaliers have been outscored by 3.0 points per 100 possessions with Garland on the court, According to NBA Advanced Stats, Which is the worst of any player on the team who has logged more than 500 minutes.
To stay afloat, cleveland trusted too much But Donovan MitchellWho is averaging 33.9 minutes per game and has the highest usage rate since playing for utah jazz. Mitchell’s prolonged absence could be devastating for the Cavaliers, who are within two games of second place in the East but just three games away from falling in the play-in tournament.
Additionally, Cleveland would ideally like to lighten the load on Mitchell the rest of the way. He suffered a calf strain and ankle sprain during last year’s playoffs, a turnaround in the Cavaliers’ Conference Semifinals by shooting just 24.5% from 3-point range. Indiana Pacers.
Enter Harden, who is still playing at an All-Star level at age 36. He ranks 11th in my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric this season, tops among players who were not selected for a game, now a former Clippers teammate kawhi leonard Was selected on Tuesday as an injury replacement. Harden played 44 of a possible 47 games before sitting out the final two due to personal reasons and is averaging 35.4 minutes per game.
Yes, both Harden and Mitchell like to have the ball in their hands. However, I think Cleveland coach Kenny Atkinson can take advantage of Harden’s past experiences to keep both players healthy and fresh.
When Harden played with Chris Paul Houston RocketsWithin one game of the 2018 NBA Finals, coach Mike D’Antoni strictly reduced his minutes to keep one on the floor whenever the score was competitive. Harden and Paul played about 20 minutes together per game, giving Harden 15 or so minutes per game as the sole playmaker and Paul getting about 12 minutes.
Current playing time for Harden and Mitchell amounts to an even wobble, so we’re talking about less than half the games they’ll likely play together. I guess, when that’s the case Brooklyn Nets-Ara Harden should be a model.
playing together Kevin Durant And kyrie irvingHarden finished 28% of the Nets’ games with a shot, free throw line or turnover – similar to Garland’s 27% usage rate last season – but averaged more than 10 assists per 36 minutes. Given Mitchell’s history with the right point guard playing off the ball and his ability to finish big jarrett allen And evan mobley Out of the pick-and-roll, Harden should be able to do the same with the Cavaliers.
Defensively, Harden’s size provides more options to hide compared to the smaller backcourt of 6-foot-1 Garland and 6-foot-2 Mitchell. Given Mobley’s defensive versatility, it’s possible that Harden could occasionally check off the power forward, taking advantage of his amazing ability as a post defender.
Of course, given the track record of poor performance in the playoffs, I understand the concern about including Harden on a team with NBA Finals aspirations. Still, this isn’t breaking up a Cleveland team that was on a roll like it was last year. Barring a deal, the most likely outcome for the Cavaliers was a loss in the first two rounds of the playoffs, like the previous three postseasons.
No one knows better than Cleveland about Garland’s health, and if the Cavaliers were convinced he was unlikely to regularly return to last season’s All-Star level play, it makes sense to move on now.
Harden was the best player Cleveland could possibly get in a one-for-one swap. The Cavaliers will have to navigate Harden’s player option for 2026-27, but they will certainly be happy to pay up if they reach the conference finals for the first time. Lebron James‘ Departing in 2018.
LA Clippers: B-
What this deal means for the Clippers: A massive change of course from their current path, which was built around competing now while keeping cap space available for a star-studded crop of potential 2027 free agents — a group that includes Mitchell.
From that perspective, it would have made more sense to trade Harden in December, when the Clippers were about 15 games below .500. They later posted 16 wins over a 19-game span to move back into the play-in spots in the West and suggest they might be able to pull off an upset in the playoffs.
Still, I can see the Clippers reining in their ‘win now’ strategy. Projections using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gave them only a 5% chance of finishing in the top six and sneaking into not only the play-in tournament but any chance of a first-round matchup against the defending champions. oklahoma city thunder. The Clippers would have to climb to at least eighth in the standings to have a chance at avoiding the Thunder in the first round, and BPI has that happening less than 40% of the time.
More surprising is the Clippers’ willingness to take on Garland’s contract, which runs at $44.9 million through 2027-28. Before this trade, starting center ivica zubac Was the only Clippers player under a more manageable guaranteed contract worth $21 million beyond 2027.
With Garland and Zubac on the books, the Clippers still have a ways to max-level cap space in the summer of 2027, but won’t be able to give two max players a chance to make the team in LA without future moves.
It’s certainly possible that Garland could be back to playing at a star level by then. We’ve seen him bounce back from bad seasons before. Garland’s performance so far has been similar to 2023-24, when he was sidelined for a month after suffering a jaw fracture. At the time, Cleveland resisted calls to break up the Garland-Mitchell backcourt, and he responded with the best season of his career in 2024-25. As the low-spending team in this trade – an unfamiliar situation – the Clippers no longer face the same urgency to win as the Cavaliers.
If Garland returns to the level he played at last season, this deal could be a big win for the Clippers. They’re swapping a 36-year-old who was looking for a new contract — certainly the reasoning behind the Clippers and Harden’s desire to work together on finding a trade — for a player who is more than a decade younger. In the Dunked on Daily Dunks newsletter, Dan Feldman finds no historical analog. The last two All-Stars so different in age were mainly traded for each other.
Youth could be especially important if the NBA strips the Clippers of several draft selections as punishment for potential salary-cap manipulation related to the league’s investigation. Leonard’s sponsorship deal with Aspiration. We’ve seen this season how important the energy provided by late second-round picks is Jordan Miller And kobe sanders Has been in the Clippers’ turnaround.
The Clippers’ quest for 2027 cap space was also in contrast to recent NBA trades. Stars have been more likely to change teams via a trade-and-sign extension than hit free agency since the Clippers signed Leonard in the summer of 2019, ancient history in front office terms. If giannis antetokounmpo And with other stars finding new homes this summer, the Clippers will be looking to accumulate cap space somehow.
My biggest concern ultimately is that Garland’s toe problem may prove more difficult to overcome than his temporary jaw injury. Given his small stature, it will be challenging to overcome any decline in Garland’s quickness. Consider the upcoming Clippers medical exam to be one of the highest-stakes physicals in recent NBA memory.
