Inside the ‘guessing’ game of Kiffin’s decision, plus a dominant Thanksgiving for NFL underdogs

lane kiffin’s exit ole miss The guessing game began at sportsbooks on Sunday, with oddsmakers trying to figure out how much to downgrade the Rebels without their flamboyant coach heading into the College Football Playoff.

Opinions varied, but the consensus among the four oddsmakers was that Kiffin was worth more than four points.

“We’re guessing,” said Chris Bennett, sportsbook director at Circa in Las Vegas, “but we certainly think Lane Kiffin’s presence is important for Ole Miss team ratings.”

The Rebels were 25–1 to win the national championship before Kiffin announced he was taking the job. LSU And will not coach Ole Miss in the playoffs. The Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas cut the Rebels’ title odds to 40-1 on Sunday after the news became official.

“The challenge now is to understand the full extent of the impact of his departure,” Joey Feazell, who oversees football for the Caesars sportsbook, told ESPN. “It could be minimal or it could be significant, depending on who follows him out the door. The point spread will certainly be affected, but the bigger change could come in offensive efficiency. With the possibility of a defensive-minded coach taking the reins, hopefully the overall trend will be lower.”

Veteran Las Vegas oddsmaker Chris Andrews was lower and not planning to adjust his power rating on Ole Miss much after Kiffin’s departure, “assuming someone on the staff takes the reins … 1-1.5 points max.”

“Close to one unless the market dictates otherwise,” Andrews, South Point’s sportsbook director, told ESPN.

Ed Salmons, a Las Vegas oddsmaker for more than 40 years, had seven teams above Ole Miss in the power ratings before Kiffin left. He was planning on dropping the Rebels to 12th without Kiffin.

“Let’s say Alabama loses [in the SEC championship game] And they faced Ole Miss [in the CFP first round]”Bama will go in there as the favorite,” Salmons of SuperBook said, adding that the Rebels would be favored over the Crimson Tide if Kiffin were still the coach.

“In the beginning, you’re just guessing,” Salmons said, “but when these coaches go right in, usually nothing good happens.”

Thanksgiving underdogs devastate bookmakers

All Four NFL Underdogs – The green Bay Packers, dallas cowboys, cincinnati bengals And Chicago Bears – Scored outright wins on Thursday and Friday, resulting in a Thanksgiving loss and chaos for bettors in a high-stakes Survivor contest in Las Vegas.

It is the first time since the NFL expanded to three Thanksgiving games in 2006 that all three underdogs won outright on the holiday, and it is the first time that an underdog won on Black Friday since the league added that game in 2023.

An NFL Survivor competition with a $1,000 buy-in and a prize pool of $18.6 million, Circa Survivor requires contestants to pick two outright winners during Thanksgiving week, one from the Thursday-Friday games and the other from the Sunday-Monday slate. Entering Thanksgiving, 898 entries were still alive; after the beers are finished philadelphia eagles Only 49 entries remained on Friday. Philadelphia was the highest-seeded team in the Thursday-Friday slate competition.

Two contestants failed to submit their choices by the week’s deadline and were eliminated.

Circa’s high-stakes Survivor competition – the $100,000 per entry Grandissimo – was eliminated as a result of a Thanksgiving/Black Friday upset. The remaining six players divided the $6.9 million prize pool equally, receiving $1.15 million each.

nfl odds and ends

• carolina panthers‘ Outright win as 9.5-point underdog against Los Angeles Rams The score was tied for the second-highest upset of the season, behind only the Panthers’ (13.5) win over the Green Bay Packers in Week 9. According to ESPN Research, Carolina has won seven straight games as an underdog, the most by any team during November of any season in the Super Bowl era.

• except week 10 when kansas city chiefs Were on the bye, the current Super Bowl favorites have lost four consecutive weeks: the Chiefs (Week 9), Chiefs (Week 11), Eagles (Week 12) and Rams (Week 13).

• The most popular player on DraftKings on Sunday morning was prop cleveland browns quarterback shadure sanders To throw more than two touchdowns against san francisco 49ers,

• Going into the season, the Chiefs were -450 to make the playoffs, according to ESPN BET odds. Before their Thanksgiving loss to the Cowboys, the Chiefs were -220 to make the postseason, and heading into Sunday of Week 13, they were -115 to make the playoffs, their longest odds of the season.

• Underdogs went 9-5 against the spread and 7-7 straight up through Sunday afternoon, including Thanksgiving and Black Friday games. The underdogs were 9-2 ATS and 7-4 SU in Sunday’s early slate, before all three favorites were added to the late slate.

College football odds and ends

conference championship game

(unanimous opening lines)

CUSA: kennesaw state vs. Jacksonville State -1.5, 57.5

Sun Belt: troy But james madison -21, 47.5

American: North Texas -3, 66.5 vs. tulane

Mountain West: unlv versus boise state -1.5, 56.5

Big 12: BYU versus texas tech -12.5, 50.5

Mac: Miami (OH) versus western michigan -2.5, 43

SEC: Georgia -1.5, 47.5 vs. alabama

acc: ruler versus Virginia -2.5, 57.5

Big Ten: Indiana versus Ohio State -5.5, 48.5

• SuperBook’s Salmons said Notre Dame This would be “more than a field goal but less than a touchdown favorite.” miami If the two playoff contenders played at a neutral site this week.

• Texas Tech covered the spread in 11 of 12 regular season games, becoming the first power-conference team to finish the regular season at 11–1 or better against the spread since 2012 Northwestern.

• Virginia will play Duke in the ACC Championship Game. At 100-1, the Cavaliers will be the biggest preseason long shot to win the ACC in 15 years.