INDIANAPOLIS — The 2026 edition of the men’s Final Four features some of the most impressive teams of the season.
Arizona spent nine consecutive weeks atop the AP poll after starting the season with a program-best 23–0 start. The Wildcats will face Michigan, the team that ousted them from No. 1 seeding in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 95.3 points per game, the most by a team reaching the semifinals since Kentucky averaged 97.0 in 1993.
According to ESPN Research, both joined Illinois in reaching the Final Four by winning NCAA Tournament games by double digits, the first time the three teams have done so since 1973. The Fighting Illini will open action Saturday against UConn, which is chasing its third national championship in four seasons. The Huskies have won their last two meetings with the Illini: in the Elite Eight during the 2024 title run and in a non-conference meeting at Madison Square Garden in November.
Who will advance to Monday’s national championships? ESPN college basketball reporters Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf break down what – and whose performance – could decide both games.
Who is the most important player on the field on Saturday?
Borzello: taris reed jr.
Reed, who emerged as a modern-day Wilt Chamberlain in the NCAA Tournament, has transformed UConn. He has been the most impressive player on the floor over the past two weeks, bookended with a 31-point, 27-rebound performance against Furman in the first round and a performance that was better than the AP Player of the Year. cameron boozer Against Duke in the Elite Eight. Reed averaged 21.8 points, 13.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.3 blocks in the tournament, while shooting 60% from the field.
Reed will have to take control on offense and defense against Illinois. The Fighting Illini will try to stop their post scoring with the 7-foot-1 Tomislav Ivicic and 7-2 Zvonimir Ivicic – Both players’ ability to stretch the floor and make 3s can force Reed away from the rim defensively. He played only 15 minutes in the first meeting between the teams due to an ankle injury, but went 0-3 from the field and committed four fouls.
UConn can’t afford for this to happen again.
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Tyrese Reed Jr.’s huge 31-point, 27-rebound game leads UConn
Tyrese Reed Jr. had career highs with 31 points and 27 rebounds to lead the UConn Huskies to the second round.
Medcalf: koa peat
At 6-8 and 235 pounds, Arizona needs the freshman’s combination of size, talent and skill to defeat Michigan. The good news for the Wildcats is that Peat is doing his best work as the season winds down, averaging 14.8 points and connecting on 53% of his shots inside the arc over the last 10 games. This game is a battle between two excellent teams with six projected first-round NBA draft picks.
Pete will have to be a defensive stopper against one of the greatest frontcourts in college basketball And To generate production inside the paint, the Wildcats will need to face an opponent who is adept in the paint.
It’s hard to imagine Michigan winning without an All-American Yaxel Lendeborg I am playing well. You could make the same case about Arizona and Peat, who scored a combined eight points in the team’s two losses.
What will UConn-Illinois determine?
Borzello: Perimeter shooting.
Illinois has been one of the most 3-point-happy teams in the country all season, although the Illini gradually became less reliant on perimeter shots. They’re still in the top 15 nationally in 3s per game and 3-point attempt rate, but after making double-digit 3s in 18 of their last 22 games, they’ve done so only once since March 3 — and that came on 3 of 17 against Iowa in the Elite Eight.
For UConn, it’s less about volume and more about making shots. on paper, solo ball, Braylon Mullins And alex karban Shooting threes are as scary as they get in college basketball. But in recent reality, Ball is 14.3% from 3 in his last six games, Mullins is 18.5% from 3 in his last eight games and Karaban went just 1-for-6 from 3 against Duke.
UConn doesn’t need to outscore Illinois because it will have the inside edge, but it’s a big boost for UConn’s offense when it’s making shots.
Medcalf: Illinois’ ability to surround Reed.
Mullins hit the winning 3 against Duke, while UConn’s second-half defense and offensive execution fueled the comeback, but the Huskies’ win would not have been possible without Reed’s production: 26 points, nine rebounds and four blocks.
Illinois has length around the rim that few teams can match. But if Reed is as dominant as he has been throughout the NCAA Tournament, it will create more opportunities for Mullins, Karban and their backcourt teammates to impact the game offensively — but the Huskies also need Reed to be a force in the paint defensively. During the NCAA Tournament, opposing players have made only 25% of their attempts around the rim against Reed.
What will Arizona-Michigan determine?
Borzello: Points in paint.
As college basketball trends toward bigger lineups and dominance around the rim, Arizona and Michigan are leading the way. Both teams are in shape, physically strong and look to establish themselves on the offensive end through all-out aggression. Arizona ranks fifth in the nation in paint points per game, second in 2-point attempts per game, third in free throw attempts per game and is in the top 10 in offensive rebound percentage. Michigan ranks second in 2-point field goal percentage, third in 2-point percentage defense and is in the top 20 in both paint points per game and second-chance points per game.
In the Sweet 16 against Arkansas, Arizona had 60 points in the paint and 30 points from the free throw line. The Wildcats then outscored Purdue in those areas in the Elite Eight by a total of 28 points. Michigan, on the other hand, put up a transition exhibition against Tennessee, which a team of the Wolverines’ size is not usually able to do.
Can either team establish itself around the rim? That will be the key.
Medcalf: Circumferential pressure.
Both teams’ post attacks will flourish depending on what happens on the perimeter.
jaden bradley And brayden burys Each perform at their best when they are driving downfield, applying extra pressure and creating open looks for their teammates, so Michigan’s efforts to stop an excellent Arizona team around the rim will have to start with the Wildcats’ offensive facilitators.
On the other hand, Arizona won’t be able to send much help to take down Michigan’s paint threats if the Wolverines threaten from the perimeter: elliot cadow, Trey McKechnie, Nimari Burnett And Yaxel Lendeborg All have made at least 37% of their 3-point attempts. However, if the Wolverines lose – they have made only 28% of their 3-point attempts in their three losses this season – the Wildcats’ job will be made easier.
last four prophecies
UConn-Illinois
Borzello: UConn, 74-72
Medcalf: UConn, 77-73
Arizona-Michigan
Borzello: Arizona, 82-80
Medcalf: Michigan, 78-76
