National Semi-finals for 2026 men’s basketball tournament Saturday will feature a pair of highly anticipated matchups.
When do action tips close? Illinois (-1.5, O/U 139.5) Takes 2-seed Yukon At 6:09 p.m. ET, it will be followed by a matchup between a pair of No. 1 seeds, michigan (-1.5, O/U 157.5) and ArizonaAround 8:49 pm ET.
Here are my picks for these games and the final two picks for the new ESPN Men’s Tournament Challenge Eliminator game.
Attention: from obstacles DraftKings Sportsbook
Subject to change at time of publication.
saturday bet
Illinois Moneyline (-130)
This national semifinal is a rematch of the two teams that met at Madison Square Garden in late November. It’s really hard to line up against UConn and bet against them, especially after what we just saw in the game ruler last Sunday. However, this is a very different Illinois team now. The Illini have the most efficient offense in the country. When you have two teams playing slow to very slow in a game with limited possessions, give me the better shooting team with the more efficient offense.
The best and possibly only way for UConn to win this game is to play rough and keep it a low-scoring affair. That’s what he did in November. The Huskies will be tasked with holding Illinois’ team shooting to 42% or less. Five of Illinois’ eight losses came when they shot 42.5% or worse from the field – and two of those games went to overtime. Only twice this season have they been held to fewer than 70 points, but one of those was the game against UConn, which held them to a season-low 61 points.
The Illini have the edge in size and on the boards and can play better inside than UConn. They also take better care of the ball, with the 10th lowest turnover percentage in the country. Illinois takes a lot of 3s, so even if they’re making them at a below-average rate, it should be enough to keep them in the game for 40 minutes.
The Illini have proven they can win low-scoring games, like they did against houston In the round of 16. But UConn isn’t built to win high-scoring games. If this turns into a shootout, it’s a big advantage for Illinois. Give me a better shooting team to win here because Illinois will get its revenge.
Michigan-Arizona first half under 73.5 (-105)
These are the two best defense lines in the country. They are also two of the top five crimes in the country. That said, this is why I’m willing to look down. I’m using the same logic I used for the first half of last weekend’s Duke-UConn game.
The only other reference point we have for Michigan against such a good defense was against Duke, in a game that finished 68-63. The total score of the game there was 151.5. The only reference point we have for Arizona are the two contests against Houston. The regular season matchup totaled 142.5 and the Big 12 Tournament final was 138.5. We’re at 157.5 here for this game and that seems too high to me.
Michigan and Duke combined for just 68 points in the first half. There were only 67 points in the regular season matchup between Arizona and Houston. In the Big 12 Final, they allowed 80 runs in the first half, but both teams were playing their third game in three days and it was natural to expect the defense to lag at that point.
On Saturday, both these teams will have to prepare for each other for at least five days, so the defense should be sharp early on. Add in the fact that this game is at Lucas Oil Stadium, so sight lines will be different. The last three national semi-finals have been held at this venue. In 2021, the total marks came to 145.5 and 134. In 2015, the totals in the semi-finals were 131 and 140. Finally, in 2010, the totals were 136.5 and 128.
Recognizing that all of those opponents were different and that the game is now higher scoring than it was five years ago, some increase in the total is expected. Still, I think we have a lot to hope for if the defense continues to dominate early in the day.
Eliminator Pick: Illinois
If you have reached this far and you have multiple teams available, you have to choose the team that you think will be in the national semi-finals lose In the last. That’s why the Illini fit in here. if you have Both Michigan and Arizona, picking either one here will probably cause you to lose your next game against them. Illinois advanced for the last time.
