How NBA’s conference gap has shrunk this season, playoff impact

A narrative has taken hold over the NBA this season: The injury-depleted and talent-depleted Eastern Conference is a mess, while the West is thriving with great teams and excitement.

Actually, Western playoff picture full of interesting stories oklahoma city thunderThe quest to repeat as champion Victor Wembanyamapremature growth San Antonio SpursTo experienced contenders fighting for consistency in Denver, Minnesota, Houston and Los Angeles.

But with four strong teams as well as a group of interesting emerging players, the East has its own story that refutes the adage that East is the lowest, West is the best.

Let’s explore the narrative of why the Eastern Conference has been an underrated force this season and how this surprising development could shape the upcoming playoffs.

traditional western dominance

After the East dominated interconference play for most of the 20th century, the West has flipped the script for most of the 21st century. From 1999–00 to 2024–25, the East had a better record in only three of the 26 seasons, and those three wins were narrow, while the West often won inter-conference battles by larger margins.

There have been many examples of extreme imbalance between the two conferences in this century. In the 2002–03 season, detroit pistons The East finished as the No. 1 seed with a 50–32 record, while six Western teams won at least 50 games. In 2003–04, only four Eastern teams had winning records. In 2006–07, all five All-NBA First Team players came from the West. In 2013-14 phoenix sunThe ’48–34 record would have tied the Suns for third place in the East, but in the West, they were ninth and missed the playoffs in the pre-play-in era.

This imbalance was not only true for teams, but also for the NBA’s top individual talents. In the 21st century, 63% of all NBA players have come from the West. In fact, the 2024-25 season was the first season this century with more All-NBA players from the East (eight) than the West (seven).

Western teams have also enjoyed more lottery luck with elite prospects over the years cooper flag And Victor Wembanyama Landing with the Western contingents. The five No. 1 picks with the worst career box plus/minus ratings in the 21st century were drafted by Eastern Conference teams: Anthony Bennett, zachery rischar, kwame brown, Andrea Bargnani And Markelle Fultz.

This long-standing trend is likely to continue, if not extend, this season, especially with the two best teams in the East ( boston celtics And Indiana Pacers) Losing their best players due to Achilles tears. Basketball-Reference’s analysis of preseason over-unders shows that Vegas expected Western teams to win 54% of their interconference games, consistent with recent history, and that five of the top seven teams in preseason championship odds came from the West.

A flipped script in 2025-26

Contrary to expectations, East has maintained momentum in the conference race this season. Through Monday’s games, Western teams are just 161-157 against their Eastern counterparts, with a 50.6% win rate. This is evidence of equality, not of unbalanced dominance.

That balance is especially relevant at the top of the standings: Eastern Conference teams finishing second (Celtics), third (Pistons), fifth (new York Knicks) and eighth (cleveland cavaliers) in net rating, while the Western Conference teams ranked first, fourth, sixth and seventh. According to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI), four teams in the East are projected to win more than 50 games, while five teams in the West are projected to win more than 50 games.

A natural counterargument might be that the best Eastern teams are getting stronger against worse opponents. But the lower part of the West is as bad as the lower part of the East, if not worse; The teams ranked 11 through 15 in the East are on an average 26.3-win pace, while the West is on an average 25.6-win pace. And by Basketball-Reference’s simple rating system, which ranks teams based on point differential and strength of schedule, the Eastern teams are second (Pistons), third (Celtics), fifth (Knicks) and seventh (Cavaliers) overall.

Additionally, we can adjust for differences in strength of schedule by examining how teams have performed specifically against Western Conference opponents. According to this metric, 10 teams have a net rating higher than plus-3: five in the West (top five teams in the standings) and five in the East (top four plus-3). charlotte hornets).

This hidden conference parity is visible not only when assessing how teams have performed so far, but also when predicting how they will perform over the remainder of the season. According to BPI’s playoff edition, four of the top six teams play in the East. The so-called lesser conference looks even better by the full-strength version of projected plus-minus from analytical site Dunks & Threes, which boasts four of the top five teams.

Playoff BPI for top-six seeds

Each of the Eastern Conference contenders has one glaring weakness that could derail their hopes of making the finals. The Pistons rank 28th in 3-pointers made and George W. It has not won a playoff series since the Bush administration. The Cavaliers are adding an injured james harden in their rotation and could look like a paper tiger after consecutive playoff flameouts. the celtics are in a state of limbo as they wait jayson tatumWithdrawal from Achilles tear. And the Knicks haven’t gelded this season. a team led by Jalen Brunson And carl-anthony town Will face big defensive questions in the postseason.

Still, the same can be said about all the Western Conference contenders the Thunder are chasing, the reigning champions. San Antonio is naive. denver nuggetsRanked 21st in defensive rating due to major injury concerns. Houston Rockets 18th in offensive rating since steven adams‘end of season left ankle injuryWhen minnesota timberwolves One of the least consistent teams in the league. and this Los Angeles Lakers Has the worst defense of any team with a winning record, while overperforming its point differential by the largest margin of any team in the league.

Playoff implications

Despite that evidence of conference balance, the West should still have some advantages in April. First, more top-tier superstars play in the West. Tatum is still recovering and giannis antetokounmpo‘S milwaukee bucks While unlikely to qualify for the playoffs, arguably the top five players in the West will compete in the 2025–26 postseason: Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, luka doncicvembanyama and Anthony Edwards.

Second, West has a very good team any obvious weaknesses. Even after an injury-induced relative slump, the Thunder still dominate every advanced metric of team strength. The BPI gives them about a 50-50 chance of winning the title and becoming champions again for the first time since the 2017–18 Warriors; If the Thunder navigate the Western playoff bracket to reach the Finals, BPI projects they will defeat their Eastern Conference opponent 78% of the time. (However, the main Eastern Conference contenders will have a chance at a coin toss or better against any Finals opponent other than Oklahoma City.)

And third, the West has better depth than its top four teams, which should make first-round matchups more attractive. The teams ranked fifth, sixth, and seventh have better records in the West than in the East, and the Lakers have star power, Golden State Warriors (provided healthy Stephen Curry) And LA Clippers That means those teams profile as more dangerous playoff spoilers than their Eastern counterparts.

In contrast, the East’s first round may lack many of the upsets — although a healthier version of that. philadelphia 76ers and red-hot charlotte hornets If they continue to advance in the playoffs, the top seeds could have quite a scare. Hornets-Pistons first round series last month’s controversy Will be must-see TV.

Detroit, Boston, New York and Cleveland will likely finish in the top four in the East in some order; According to BPI, there is only a 5% chance of falling into any of them. However, that structure could produce a pair of conference semifinal matchups that are just as attractive as what the West has to offer.

According to BPI, the most likely second-round matchups in any conference are Pistons-Cavaliers and Celtics-Knicks. Playoff BPI gives all four teams roughly the same rating, five to six points above average. According to BPI calculations, all four teams have at least a 20% chance of reaching the final.

But a wide-open race doesn’t mean an inferior race. This four-way clash is a tense one, with young stars and veterans trying to erase bad playoff stories, and former champions and proud franchises hungry for postseason success.

And this high-level competition means there will be no easy route to the final, as has been the case in years past when the East has fallen far behind the West. Barring unexpected playoff upsets, whichever team emerges as Eastern Conference champion will have to defeat two high-caliber opponents along the way. Whichever Eastern team claims a place in the finals will really have to earn it.