2025 nfl offseason There were plenty of quarterback movements featured through free agency and trades, but five moves stand out from the rest. Sam Darnold Put signature on With the Seahawks, Justin Fields Put signature on with the jets, Daniel Jones Put signature on With the Colts, aaron rodgers Put signature on with the Steelers, and geno smith Was traded with The attackers. All five are currently starting for their new teams to mixed results.
How have these quarterbacks performed at their new destinations? We called our NFL Nation reporters to weigh in on both the positive and worrisome signals we’ve heard from each passer so far. Then, national NFL reporter Dan Graziano estimated the probability that each quarterback will remain with his new 2025 team in 2026.
The five signal-callers are listed below alphabetically, starting with the player who continued his redemption arc in a new city this season.
Go to quarterback:
darnold , Farm , jones
rogers , Blacksmith
2025 stats: 11 passing touchdowns (tied for fifth), 1,541 passing yards (third), 78.5 QBR (third), 70.8% completion percentage (tied for sixth)
What went right this season: Darnold is a hair behind Daniel Jones And dak prescott As for third place in QBR, it shows that his breakout season in Minnesota was neither a fluke nor solely a result of Kevin O’Connell’s coaching. He leads the NFL in both air yards per attempt (9.0) and yards per attempt (9.6), while owning the sixth-lowest sack rate (4.1%). This means he is successfully pushing the ball downfield and not holding onto it for long. Despite operating the league’s most run-heavy offense, Darnold ranks fifth in passing touchdowns, and many of those have come in games in which he escaped pressure and made accurate throws on the run. This is probably proving to be his best skill.
What went wrong this season: Both of the Seahawks’ losses involved a Darnold turnover in the final minute when they had the ball with a chance to win. In week 1He drove Seattle to the 49ers’ 9-yard line before the right tackle abraham lucas soundly beaten by the defensive end nick bossa For the game-ending strip sack. In week 5His rushed attempt on a throwaway bounced off a defender for an interception. Tampa Bay drove for the game-winning field goal, and Darnold said after the game he could have changed the safety for the free rusher.
Although there are some unexpected circumstances behind every mistake, quarterbacks are defined by their ability to deliver in the clutch. Darnold didn’t do it in those losses, but he did lead the game-winning drive week 4 Against the Cardinals. — Brady Henderson
Darnold likely to stay in 2026: 80%. Darnold has been everything the Seahawks could have hoped for when they made the trade geno smith And signed him in free agency. They set a goal of earning $27.5 million in 2026, but none of that money is guaranteed. And $17.5 million of that money becomes guaranteed five days after the Super Bowl, so if the Seahawks are in the Super Bowl, they’ll only have five days to make a decision on Darnold. (Of course, if they’re in the Super Bowl, they might have decided to keep him by then.)
If he continues to play like this and the Seahawks keep winning he could get an extension that will cover the final two years of his deal. –Graziano
2025 stats: 4 passing touchdowns (28th), 799 passing yards (29th), 36.5 QBR (29th), 65.0% completion percentage (22nd)
What went right this season: Not much. If there’s a positive, it’s that Fields has brought a unique dimension to this situation. He has already rushed for 235 yards, so he should easily break the team record for most rushing yards by a quarterback (Al Doro had 453 yards rushing in 1960). Fields has kept some games alive with his open-field ability, including a spectacular 43-yard touchdown run against the Dolphins. week 4In fact, he may have more yardage, but he’s not keeping the ball as well as he did at the beginning of the season.
What went wrong this season: Fields received vote of confidence from coach Aaron Glenn this week, but he may lose his grip on the starting job. He looked lost and seemed reluctant to pull the trigger sunday Against the Broncos. He held the ball for a long time and took nine sacks. He is inconsistent as a pocket passer – the story of his career – with his lowest QBR since his rookie season (31.4).
The Jets signed Fields with a Two-year, $40 million deal – Essentially, a one-year audition to see if he’s the long-term answer. So far, he has not provided any evidence that he could be that person. -Rich Cimini
Fields likely to live in 2026: 25%. Fields had some good plays, some very bad plays and one missed game ShakeIf the Jets waive him after this season, they would still have to pay him $10 million in guaranteed salary in 2026 and owe him $30 million for one (possibly disappointing) season.
The Jets are 0-6, meaning they are almost certainly not a playoff team and may have a very high draft pick. It’s time for Fields to turn things around in terms of his individual game and convince the Jets that he is their future at the position. After all he is only 26 years old. But if this season is as rough as it has been so far, the Jets could get out of the contract with minimal pain. –Graziano
2025 stats: 8 Passing touchdowns (17th), 1,502 passing yards (7th), 79.7 QBR (1st), 71.7% completion percentage (3rd)
What went right this season: Just about everything. Jones certainly expected an upgrade in his supporting cast compared to Indianapolis new yorkBut who could have predicted that he would lead the NFL in QBR and that his yards per attempt would increase from a career mark of 6.6 to 8.3 this season? If you’re looking for an explanation, you can start with coach Shane Steichen’s excellent game plan and Jones’ league-low 2.7% sack rate (his career rate is 8.1%).
What went wrong this season: It’s a bit of a bummer, but Jones has to be mindful of his ball security after recent games. He has gone three games on the season without a turnover, but has three interceptions in the last three games, including a fumbled interception. last sunday’s win Over the Cardinals. Jones also had two fumbles in that three-game span, although the Colts recovered both. Efficiency and turnover margin have contributed to their offensive success, so they need to continue to be part of the winning recipe. –Stephen Holder
Jones likely to stay in 2026: 80%. Jones has played very well, and the Colts are 5-1, which has led to some discussion about a potential contract extension. Jones is on a one-year, $14 million contract that could get as much as $18 million if he meets all of his incentives, and then is eligible for free agency at the end of the year. Colts still have 2023 first-rounder Anthony Richardson Sr.., but if they continue to win with Jones, a new contract or franchise tag for 2026 are strong possibilities. –Graziano
2025 stats: 10 passing touchdowns (ninth), 1,021 passing yards (25th), 49.0 QBR (23rd), 68.8% completion percentage (11th)
What went right this season: More has gone wrong than this, that’s for sure. The initial returns of the Rodgers experiment have since been positive. signed a one year deal With the Steelers in June. That’s because Rodgers is playing smart football within the offense and integrating seamlessly into the organizational culture. defensive captain cameron hayward He said this year’s team has been close from top to bottom and he said Rodgers has been a big part of that.
What went wrong this season: The biggest flaw of the Rodgers-led offense is the lack of deep passes. Rodgers ranks last in air yards per attempt (5.3), but the Steelers’ playmakers lead in average yards after the catch (7.3). The Steelers have 15 receptions of at least 20 yards, but they only have two passes of 20 air yards or more. –Brooke Pryor
Rodgers likely to stay in 2026: 5%. It’s so low because of Rodgers basically said This will be his last year. This is so much because people sometimes change their minds or what they say doesn’t actually make sense. Things are going pretty well for Rodgers in Pittsburgh, where he’s playing on a one-year, $14.15 million deal. But he will turn 42 in December, and it would be logical that he would at least be considering retirement, even if he eventually changes his mind. –Graziano
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McAfee: This is the best we’ve seen Aaron Rodgers in years
Pat McAfee has been impressed watching Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers’ offense this season.
2025 stats: 7 passing touchdowns (21st), 1,350 passing yards (11th), 37.8 QBR (28th), 66.1% completion percentage (20th)
What went right this season: There aren’t too many positives to take from Smith’s performance on the field. However, the attackers week 6 win Over the Titans may have provided him with a blueprint to get back on track. It wasn’t a great performance, but the offense struck a balance between the run and pass game. ashton jeanty Rushed for 75 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries, and Smith relied heavily on the short and intermediate passing game. He completed 17 of 23 passes for 174 yards with one touchdown pass and one interception. Putting Smith in a situation where he doesn’t have to win games by himself is the best path forward for him and the Raiders.
What went wrong this season: Turnover, simply put. Smith has thrown 10 interceptions in six games. Was the last NFL QB to throw at least 10 INTs in the first six games of a season cancer cousin With the Vikings in 2020. Smith threw an interception for the third consecutive game on Sunday. “I told the coach [Pete Carroll] I need to jump in the lake, or the ocean or something,” Smith said after the game. “It’s a lot of bad luck that happens to me, but I have control over it.” –Ryan McFadden
Smith likely to stay in 2026: 50%. Currently, $18.5 million of Smith’s $26.5 million 2026 salary is guaranteed. The remaining guarantee becomes due in March next year. So, if the Raiders want to go ahead and eat $18.5 million (and not eat the entire $26.5 million), they’ll have to make a decision by the time the league year starts. Smith has played poorly and just turned 35, so it’s not a question that the Raiders could go in a different direction if things don’t change. –Graziano
