As Democrats look toward the midterms and the 2028 presidential election, a key data point has emerged about the last White House race: the number of Hispanics who live at home, supporting neither President Trump nor former Vice President Kamala Harris.
New research from Voto Latino shows that Hispanic voter turnout had the most significant decline of any racial or ethnic group during last year’s election.
The research found that nearly 4.5 million Latino voters who voted in 2020 are likely to stay home in 2024.
According to the organization, more than 70 percent of those “missing voters” were predicted to be Democrats and about 48 percent of those voters were projected to be strong Democrats.
The data confirmed what the organization’s founding president and CEO, Maria Teresa Kumar, had suspected in the final weeks before the election.
“Our disappointment was that we were seeing all these people who had never been contacted before the election,” Kumar said in an interview with The Hill. “And this election, I would say, was a persuasion campaign. It was not a poll. But even that polling was deeply lacking in who the campaign ultimately reached.”
In the final days before the election, when Voto Latino and other organizations hit the ground running and knocked on the doors of low-propensity voters in battleground states including Nevada and Pennsylvania, Kumar said he realized, “We were their first touch.”
Voto Latino’s research shows that the decline in voting turnout is nearly half among Latinos under 40. And among those young Latinos, nearly 80 percent were predicted to be Democrats and 49.5 percent were described as “strong Democrats.”
The organization’s research shows the biggest declines in support have occurred in highly populated counties, including Miami-Dade County in Florida and El Paso, Texas, where Latino voters declined by more than 8 percent and 11 percent, respectively.
In addition to a lack of outreach, Democratic strategists say there are several reasons for the decline among Latino voters, including a lack of connection with any of the candidates.
“They didn’t come because they weren’t inspired by Joe Biden or Kamala Harris and they thought Donald Trump was racist,” said Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha. “Their lives, no matter which party they vote for, haven’t really changed.”
Pew Research Center analysis showed that 48 percent of Hispanic voters voted for Trump, while 51 percent supported Harris. Trump’s high percentage was boosted by Latino men, who were attracted to his columns by Trump’s campaign talk on issues including the economy.
Rocha argued that although Trump has not fulfilled his promises during the campaign, “at least he was talking about it.”
Recent polls suggest an opportunity for Democrats with Hispanic voters, as they show Trump has lost support with the demographic from last year. This is something that could also make a difference in this year’s gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia.
A New York Times/Siena poll late last month showed that 69 percent of Hispanics surveyed said they disapprove of Trump’s job performance, and 58 percent said the economy has gotten worse since Trump took office.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll reiterated those results, with only 32 percent of Hispanic voters approving of the president’s job performance.
And a survey they conducted for Somos Votantes, a left-leaning Latino voter group and released last month, found a similar pattern. Their poll found that Trump’s favorability has continued to decline in the first year of his second term. It was down 12 points in February. And last month it was 20 points underwater.
Still, Kumar said Democrats haven’t fully learned their lesson with Hispanic voters in 2024.
She said, “No, the party hasn’t gotten any better, I would say.” “And that’s because if you ask Latino voters what policy issues and relief the Democrats stand for that will make them less afraid, able to pay rent, there’s still no policy platform on it, and yet they’re watching their loved ones be taken and kidnapped in broad daylight.”
“To date, there is no collective outrage over what is happening in the Latino community, except in the Hispanic Caucus,” Kumar said.
Kumar pointed to June, when federal agents forcibly removed Senator Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) from a press conference held by Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. He said Democrats should have come together to more forcefully oppose Padilla’s treatment.
But Rocha said Democrats could win over Hispanic voters if they highlight working-class issues that are important to them, including the economy, health care and immigration, rather than focusing on democracy like in 2024.
“He first has to admit that he made a mistake and apologize,” Rocha said. “The first thing you have to do is admit that you have lost your way and if you seem genuine then people will welcome you.”
