The Patriots’ defense put up a dominant performance against them in the snowy AFC Championship Game. denver broncos and backup quarterback jarrett stidhamAnd the Seahawks fought hard to the end to stop it Los Angeles Rams — their NFC West rival. The Seahawks are the early favorites, but there’s a lot to break in this rematch Super Bowl XLIX.
Our betting analysts give you their first bets for Super Bowl LX.
there is a possibility DraftKings Sportsbook. Odds are accurate as of time of publication.
Seattle Seahawks -4.5 vs new England Patriots
Sunday, 6:30 pm, NBC
money line: Seahawks (-225); Patriot (+185)
Total: 46.5; Opened: 46.5
Kenneth Walker III Over 21 receiving yards (-111)
Ben Solak: Walker has been used consistently as a receiver in the Seahawks’ biggest games of the year, and continues to be so. Zach Charbonnet With the season postponed to later in the season, he has a plethora of early down routes available to him. Expect an offensive attack from the Patriots Sam Darnold In hopes of achieving his worst game, and when the pressure package arrives, the back is included as a quick outlet option. Walker’s explosive playmaking ability also reflects in this number.
Kenneth Walker III over 20.5 receiving yards (-111)
Liz Loza: Walker has gained more than 25 receiving yards in four of his last five games, including at least 29 receiving yards during each postseason outing. The Patriots gave up an average of nearly 31 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs during the season, with Denver’s rookie running back 22 receiving yards in the team’s conference championship effort. New England’s defense figures to put pressure on Darnold, forcing many short passes to Walker (give me easy overs on 2.5 catches), who should flirt with 30 receiving yards at Levi’s Stadium.
Seahawks -4.5
Seth Walder: After watching two conference championship games, if it seems like the Seahawks are in a completely different category of football team than the Patriots – you wouldn’t be wrong. I’m not saying this just because of these two games (one half of which, to be fair, was in peak weather), but because of how both of these teams have performed on a down-to-down basis throughout the season.
I’m basing this outlook on ESPN’s FPI, which rated these teams exactly the same considering the quality of the opponent — and had the Seahawks a full four points better than the Patriots entering Sunday. What happened on Sunday boosted my confidence in Seattle, especially because the part of the team that worried me the most (Darnold after a poor second half of the season) was a big reason they won.
Jackson Smith-Njigba More than 8 receptions (+121)
Eric Moody: Smith-Njigba had a stellar performance in the NFC Championship Game against the Rams, catching 10 of 12 targets for 153 yards and a touchdown. The chemistry between him and Darnold is undeniable. He has at least eight receptions in 11 of 19 games and is averaging 9.4 targets this season. Although the Patriots’ secondary is underwhelming, the volume should still be there, setting up Smith-Njigba to rack up receptions.
more than 46.5
Pam Maldonado: New England can score even without explosive play. Seattle can score as Seahawks to do Create explosive plays. Both defenses thrive on takeaways, which shorten the field and increase the total. Super Bowls tighten up early — but can always open late. A small area per side goes beyond the number.
Ramondre Stevenson Over 25 receiving yards (+120)
Matt Bowen: The Seahawks played Cover 2 (two-deep zone) on 33.1% of opponent dropbacks this season, the most in the league. Limit vertical throws and push the ball downfield – which creates opportunities for Stevenson as a check down/screen target for the quarterback drake may. And including the playoffs, Stevenson has 25 or more receiving yards in five of his last eight games.
milton williams Less than 0.25 sacks (-204)
Walder: ok, it’s not the most exciting First Super Bowl bet to make. But this is in line with my general betting ethos: create models and bet on those models. And it’s a bet that immediately stands out from my best-performing model: player-level sax. Williams is coming off a remarkable season in which he recorded a 13.0% pass rush win rate among defensive tackles, which would have ranked sixth had he been eligible. But still: Defensive tackles earn sacks at a very low rate, and Williams exemplified this with 5.5 sacks in 15 games even while playing well.
Add in that the Seahawks are a run-leaning team and Darnold has been slightly better than average at avoiding sacks, and this price is too good to pass up.
