Of all the teams competing for one of the 48 places in the newly expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup area, it would not be an exaggeration to say that San Marino are actually the worst, finishing 210th out of 210 qualified teams FIFA men’s world rankings,
With a population of just over 34,000 – making it the fifth-smallest recognized country in the world – San Marino is actually the larger, but considerably less well-known of the two microstates within. Italy (As far as we know, Vatican City does not have a FIFA-recognized team). So far, in their quest to play for the World Football Championships in North America next summer, la serenissima They have lost all of their seven World Cup qualifying matches, scoring only one goal and allowing 32.
So, you’d be forgiven for assuming that all hopes of San Marino playing in the next World Cup are gone – but that’s actually not the case. However, for this to happen, a very specific series of events must occur… potentially San Marino would have to lose their final World Cup qualifying match by as many goals as possible.
The most unexpected series of events
European teams were awarded 16 of the 48 World Cup bids. After a lengthy round-robin qualifying format, which ends on 18 November, the first-place finishers in each of the 12 groups earn automatic bids. Each of the 12 second-place finishers advance to a 16-team playoff, while the remaining four UEFA bids are still at stake.
This is where it gets a little complicated. The last four spots in that playoff are reserved for the highest-ranked teams that won one of the 14 uefa nations league The group returns in 2024. As luck would have it, San Marino actually won their three-team Nations League group for the 2024–25 season, recording two wins Liechtenstein (another European microstate) and stay gibraltar With a draw and a loss.
San Marino are ranked 14th out of these 14 Nations League teams, so to clinch one of these four playoff spots, they do not need the bids of 10 of the 13 teams ahead of them in this “winners list”. In other words, if – and only if – at least 10 of those countries finish first in their World Cup groups (and qualify directly for the World Cup) or finish second (and already qualify for a playoff spot). And, this is where things start going wrong.
As we enter the final week of qualifying games, the eight teams that could have earned Nations League bids have already qualified for the World Cup and, therefore, do not need them. This means that San Marino’s hopes basically depend only on finishing second in their group of two other countries.
If Nations League group winners northern ireland Beat slovakia Going into their World Cup qualifier on Friday, they will move up to second place in UEFA World Cup qualifying Group A and be in a very good position to remain there. Then, on Saturday, if romania – Another Nations League group winner – Defeat Bosnia and HerzegovinaBoth of those countries will finish second in UEFA World Cup qualifying Group H – a group that also includes San Marino.
If this sequence of events occurs, it will set the stage for when San Marino plays Romania on November 18. la serenissima To ensure that the Romanians advance in the traditional World Cup qualifying process and give up their spot in the Nations League playoff, San Marino will be encouraged to lose by as many goals as possible to allow them to take that spot.
This is the kind of baffling logistical nightmare that FIFA has been trying to avoid since the “disgrace of Gijon”, when West Germany and austria They were eliminated after allegedly colluding in their final group stage match to allow both teams to advance to the 1982 World Cup AlgeriaThat match prompted FIFA to institute the now familiar rule that all final World Cup group stage matches would be played simultaneously,
What are the sportsbooks thinking?
However, if San Marino find themselves encouraged to lose to Romania by as much as possible, the question arises: how will sportsbooks create lines for the match?
For starters, it should be noted that World Cup qualifying handles are not currently a popular betting item for football, let alone compared to the rest of the sportsbook’s menu: “Interest in World Cup qualifying has been good, but not as high as regular league football,” BetMGM football trader Tom Pullin told ESPN over email. Premier League.” Furthermore, he said that San Marino’s matches do not differ unless they play a high-profile team.
San Marino, predictably, have not been given a chance by the bookies in these World Cup qualifiers. At ESPN BET, the chances of winning the match against San Marino were the lowest cyprus on October 12 when they were +1300 on the three-way money line. Their longest odds were a surprising 100–1 against Austria just one match earlier on 9 October. Cyprus, on the other hand, were -600 to win, while Austria was not even listed because the odds were so low.
According to BetMGM and DraftKings, the big-money bettors who tuned in for these matches also saw San Marino predictably fade at every turn. However, Mark Bickerdike, head of football and UK sports at Caesars Sportsbook, said that many bookmakers “love a big underdog story”, so the book has accumulated solid liability on many short bets at long odds.
Which brings us back to the possible “doomsday scenario” on November 18th. Given that San Marino are already as low as they can get in the power ratings, sportsbooks will likely be tempted to list Romania as low as humanly possible, likely not even listing a money line for them, assuming San Marino are incentivized to collapse.
“We will usually approach San Marino matches a little differently given the disparity between them and most other teams,” Pullin said. “For a potential hypothetical situation as you described, the trading team would use the market/claims as a guide to where prices should be, taking into account potentially higher target scoring at the opening price.”
But for this scenario to succeed, Northern Ireland (+310) would have to upset Slovakia (EVEN), and Romania (+185) would have to upset Bosnia & Herzegovina (+140). According to ESPN BET lines, a parlay of those two outcomes from three-way money lines yields +1069 odds.
“Along with the rest of the industry, we are waiting until we know the result of the Bosnia-Romania game on Saturday before releasing prices for the Romania-San Marino match,” Bickerdike said over email. “It would be a unique scenario if it goes through.”
But should the extraordinary occur and San Marino actually lose a match spectacularly and lose the chance to advance in World Cup qualifying, it creates an absolutely epic dilemma. FIFA rules, of course, prevent teams from deliberately losing matches, but given how bad things have already been for San Marino in World Cup qualifying – one of their matches against Austria ended in a 10–0 defeat – it will be difficult to prove. la serenissima Did anything completely out of the ordinary.
