Fantasy basketball: Is now the best time to trade Austin Reaves?

austin reeves He has improved every season in the NBA, peaking with 20.2 PPG, 5.8 APG and 4.5 RPG last season as the third option on a Lakers team where the first two options were transferred midseason. Lebron James And anthony davis To luka doncic And James.

This season, the 27-year-old Reeves has been Doncic’s second option while James has been sidelined, and he has also played three games as the first option with Doncic out.

The results have been…explosive.

Through seven games, Reeves has averaged 31.1 ppg, 9.3 apg, 5.1 rpg, 3.0 3ppg and 1.4 spg. Those are numbers that will put him not only in the Fantasy MVP discussion, but in the overall NBA MVP discussion.

Can Reeves keep up this production?

Fantasy managers of Reaves face a tough decision: trade him while his value skyrockets or hold on to him and hope he can become a key part of a fantasy championship run.

First, let’s take a look at how Reeves is performing in his various roles this season. In three games as the first option with Doncic sidelined, Reaves has averaged video game numbers: 40.0 ppg, 10.0 apg, 5.3 rpg, 4.0 3ppg, 2.3 spg and 4.3 TO in 39.3 mpg. He shot 50.0% from the field and 41.4% from behind the arc.

In four games as the second option behind Doncic, Reeves has averaged 24.5 ppg, 8.7 apg, 5.0 rpg, 2.3 3pp and 0.8 spg and 2.7 TO in 36.8 ppg. He shot 47.8% from the field and 28.1% from behind the arc.

These are all small sample sizes, but I see some useful data.

• First of all, Reeves has not scored fewer than 21 points in any game this season. There is a consistency that indicates that Reeves is, in fact, still improving as a player and that his scoring with opportunities is sustainable.

• Second, Reeves’ rebounding and assists have been largely consistent depending on role, but as he moves from the second option to the first option, his scoring volume, 3-point volume and turnovers increase dramatically. This makes perfect sense as his usage as a first option increases so much. His assists are down slightly, but not by a large amount, which suggests Reaves will remain a plus passer who utilizes his possessions as both a scorer and distributor.

• The third observation is, in some ways, the most interesting to me. Reeves’ shooting percentage from the field, and especially from behind the arc, decreased when he was in the second seat. His theft also declined rapidly. While these may all be small-sample effects, they may also be an indication that Reaves prefers to set up his shots, especially his 3-pointers, from his own creation, rather than being a spot-up shooter whose shots are made by his teammates.

  And, as a defender, Reeves can be more active and ready to take steal chances when he is in the primary chair as opposed to when he is playing a more supporting role. In my opinion, shooting percentage is probably an effect of a small sample size that will recover over time.

What will happen to Reeves when LeBron returns?

Now, let’s project what this can tell us about what to expect from Reaves if both Doncic and James are available.

As individuals, both are very usage types which should further limit Reeves’ opportunities. His offensive production as a third option likely sits somewhere between his level last season and his level as a second option this season. That’s a low-20s scorer with about five boards and maybe six to seven assists.

If we consider that his cold shooting as a second option so far is a small sample situation, his shooting percentage will likely be very similar to his percentage last season.

game

Reaves hits floater at buzzer to seal win for Lakers

Austin Reaves won it for the Lakers with a floater in the lane against the Timberwolves.

But we also have to consider the uncertainty of whether Doncic and James will be fully healthy for the remainder of the season. The injury histories of both suggest they could miss more time as the season progresses. If so, we’ve seen what a turnaround Reeves has had when called up.

My rough guess is that Reaves projects to be a top-50 fantasy prospect as a third option, a top-25 as a second option and a top-10 as a leadoff option. And it’s likely he’ll spend at least some time in all three roles as the season progresses.

If you want to trade Reeves, what is his trade value?

As far as trading price goes, if I can trade at a price even close to its current average I will do so.

If I were trading for Reeves, I would do so if I could get him at a price close to where he was drafted.

His true value in fantasy leagues could split the difference, with expected value just above his draft position, but with the upside to become a top 10-caliber player for stretches at any given time depending on the opportunity.