Fantasy baseball: Read the warning label before drafting these guys

Forming your opinion on players fantasy baseball Always welcome… yes, even the negative ones.

After checking the players first I most of Like to roaster For our teams this season, let’s now focus our attention on the players I have the most postpone In the 2026 draft. But first, as I often emphasize in this exercise, there is always a point at which a player can fall in the draft where he becomes a relative value and absolutely draftable. So, don’t cross these guys off your list before the draft starts – that’s it. Make sure you are confident About where you’re comfortable taking them before locking them in on your 2026 roster.

Based on early expert-league results and ADP (average draft position), I’m eliminating the following 15 players:

The Giants may have the worst defensive right side of the infield in baseball, with Arraez ranking second rafael devers Before (more on that later). Among the devers, Bryce Aldridge And gerar encarnaciónThe team is overloaded with first base/DH types if they need to make a change. Eraiz is quite useful in the contact point league, but his playing time has declined greatly due to his average defense and speed. I see many pinch-runners/Christian Kos Defensive replacement runs are in his future.

A popular breakout pick, Bradish has bad breaking pitches (sliders, curveballs) that raise his statistical ceiling, but he is only 21 months and 54 professional innings removed from Tommy John surgery. He is being selected 18th among starting pitchers in the NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) Main Event League, which is extremely generous for a pitcher who can handle workload management. this is it george kirby/Jesus Luzardo/dialing off Tier and I’ll easily take any one of those three first.

How lucky do you feel? A lot went right for Buxton in 2025, from playing his most games (126) in eight years, to hitting 35 homers, to stealing bases a perfect 24-of-24. Still, he made two more trips to the injured list – this time short-term absences – so those trips should serve as a reminder that even in the best case scenario, he is at risk of missing time. Randy Arozarena, riley green And taylor ward These are all fairly safe options that you should choose before Buxton.

Chapman’s 2025 was historically excellent, but what made it historic doesn’t make it highly unlikely to be repeated (or even a reasonable approach). Consider that Mariano Rivera is the only reliever with consecutive seasons of at least 30 saves and 2.0 WAR after his 37th birthday, while only 14 pitchers have done such a season after age 37. Chapman’s career-best .200 BABIP is volatile year-to-year, and his ERA could double (or worse), making his upper-tier closer’s price seem excessive.

Rafael Devers, 1B/DH, Giants

The threat of playing time is not as pressing with Devers as it is with Arraez (or Aldridge or Encarnación), because he is one of two players (along with aaron judge) with at least 25 home runs and a 50% hard-hit rate in each of the last six full MLB seasons. Devers’ problem is that he is in one of the worst home environments for a hitter with his skill set, his strikeout rate has increased over the past two seasons, and he is in the midst of a miserable spring training.

Few pitchers have seen as much decline in average fastball velocity as Estevez has this spring, as he recorded just 87.1 mph in his first two Cactus League appearances and 90.7 mph in his only World Baseball Classic game (March 9), significantly below his 95.9 mark during the 2025 regular season. Velocity isn’t everything, and Estevez has a history of low spring training numbers (93.8 mph average since 2023-25), but he has also significantly outperformed his peripherals over the past two seasons.

Goodman’s raw power is legitimate, but he’s unlikely to maintain a .278 batting average in 2026, even if the hitter-friendly environment of Coors Field is helping his cause. He is a notorious free swinger, having 225 whiffs on non-strike last year (seventh most in the majors), and a 34-point difference between his actual and expected batting average (highest among batting title qualifiers). To be honest, yenner diaz And francisco alvarez Both could match Goodman’s production at a fraction of the price.

After a late-season trade with Flushing and moving out of the closer role, Helsley’s 2025 unraveled, as his walk rate increased to 11.6% and he gave up four home runs and 13 extra-base hits in his final 22 appearances. Now in Baltimore, he has more promise in save chances, albeit in a loaded division and hitter-oriented home environment. Helsley’s fastball velocity has also decreased this spring (96.0 mph, down from 99.3 in 2025), leading to concerns that he will not be able to retain the job.

A notoriously slow starter, Lindor is recovering from an early spring training hamate bone fracture that is unlikely to threaten his status for Opening Day, but could still impact his power in the early weeks of the season. After averaging 32 homers and 30 stolen bases over the past three years, he is currently one of the top 30 overall selections in both the ESPN and NFBC drafts, which is a very high price in an ESPN league for a player you may be able to trade cheaply around May 1.

Marte is being projected as a clear fantasy starter in both the ESPN (199th overall ADP) and NFBC (175th) formats, and while he’s 24 years old and has plenty of room to grow, he hasn’t performed enough at the MLB level to warrant a huge investment. He has played just 187 games combined between the majors and minors over the past two seasons, underscoring his injury risk. Additionally, both his 2025 hard-hit rate (36.3%) and xwOBA (.304) were worse than league average.

I want I’m confident Naylor can repeat last season’s 30 stolen bases. He has an 85.9% career stolen base rate, and his manager, Dan Wilson, issues the green light down the basepaths like a state highway at 2 a.m. That said, banking on even 20, let alone 30, steals from a player who has finished in the 15th percentile or worse in Statcast’s sprint speed in all four of his full MLB seasons is foolish. If Naylor gets back to 25/13 (homers and steals), he is effectively Brandon NimmoWhich is going on two or three rounds later.

Peralta has been a remarkably consistent strikeout performer, one of only two pitchers with at least 200 K in each of the last three seasons (Cies is the other), but his 2025 fantasy production was helped by good fortune. He achieved the highest left-on-base percentage of his career (85.5%), and his expected ERA was nearly three-quarters of a run higher than his actual number. Peralta is in a better home environment with the Mets this year, but that’s only getting his value closer to top 10 status.

I drafted him for $2 in Tout Wars last weekend and I still didn’t feel good about it. For added context, let’s say he was the $18 player in that draft exactly a year ago. Sasaki’s first year in America was a nightmare, from his 17.4% strikeout rate to the 161 days he spent on the IL, and his performance this spring has done nothing to inspire anyone. yoshinobu yamamoto-Like a second year rebound. Sasaki has walked nine of 38 hitters while surrendering a 47.4% hard-hit rate.

Like Buxton, it’s not worth betting on Story continuing healthy seasons. Last year was Story’s first year since 2018 in which he avoided the IL, and he finished in the 33rd percentile or lower in terms of walks, strikeouts and chase rate, as well as Statcast’s expected wOBA. He’s more reliant on playing time to put up big fantasy totals and, while his No. 2 lineup spot helps, he’ll need health closer to the 2021 or 2025 seasons than his 2022-24 years to replicate this.

Speaking of spring velocity decline, the Strider may be the most troubling one on the list. A 281-strikeout pitcher who averaged 97.2 mph with his fastball three seasons ago, the right-hander has averaged just 94.5 mph with the pitch in three Grapefruit League starts (after averaging 95.4 mph in his final 10 starts of 2025). After such a sluggish finish in his first year following a second UCL surgery, he needed to show more than that to have any hope of being worthy of a top-30 starting pitcher pick.