In the last two weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin tested NATO – and the alliance failed. The sequence of events tells the story.
The first Moscow sent herds of drones that forced NATO jet Conflict On Poland and Romania. Romania Followed Instead of firing missiles, drone costs hundreds of thousands of dollars, one of which Russian Gern drone Only a fraction is worth. The imbalance is clear. Then three Russian MiG -31 fighters entered Estonian Aircraft On September 19, in the Gulf of Finland for 12 minutes.
These were deliberate tricks, not isolated accidents. Institute for the institute War study notedIt is “trying to gauge both in the expectations of implementing lessons learned for future conflict scenarios with NATO alliance with Russia Poland and NATO’s abilities and reactions.”
President Trump Reaction to Truth Social was a strange comment: “What is with violation of Poland airspace with drones with Russia? We go here!” America should not be betting to save Europe. Connecting uncertainty for Europe, on 15 September, Kremlin Spokesperson Dimitri Peskov said“NATO is in war with Russia; this is clear and no evidence is required.”
But it indicates a deep problem. From Crimea to 2022 in 2014, from the initial reluctance of the west, a pattern of delays has repeated itself – with predicted results. It could have been stopped in 2014 if Europe would have actedDecisivelyThe lesson is clear. Europe should show force. Russia only respects strength.
Robert “Magyar” Browdie, Ukraine’s unmanned system major,Warned in July 2025 NATO should immediately review its principles for the preparation of Shahed flying in Europe. The West went very slowly. Those warnings are now reality. Russian drones areNATO defense investigationTest of the alliance.
Moscow’s desire to grow is not an accident. It is testing a dangerous new normal by flying drones in the Polish airspace, exploiting reluctance to work of NATO. Analyst Oliver AlexanderWags“Whenever Russia decides to launch a drone strike on western Ukraine, the New Normal Aistra can not shut down and can disrupt air travel in eastern Poland.” The economic influence of continuous disruption will be destructive.
Polish Foreign Minister Redoslav Sikorski is now calling Western colleagues To prevent Russian drones And missiles on Ukraine. ButLogisticsSuch an operation will be very difficult and Europe will not be able to shoot flocks of cheap drones continuously.
The call is immediate – break the cycle before Moscow grows. Yet such calls were already made in 2022, when the West was out of fear of provoking Russia. Today, it is Putin who moves freely in the West, hesitating freely.
Feeling PutinExcitedAfter the Alaska Summit in August, as West began talking about sending peace forces to Ukraine, Putin warned that he would be targeted,Saying“We believe that these will be a valid goals for destruction.” Under Trump’s tenure, Russia is onlyQuickThe speed of attacks against Ukraine ignores their demands for a peace agreement.
Kremlin has given priorityMass productionCheap drone while Poland isFocusedOn high -end systems such as Patriots, F -35S and Himas for traditional war preparation. But this is reduced to the inexpensive counter-drain defense. Relying on expensive jets or missiles is unstable to stop the swams – the cost inequality is just great.
Recently in a television address, Ukrainian President Volodimir ZelancesiWarned that “action should always be preventive.” Europe, he warned, “Dozens of dozens of ‘Shahd’ and ballistic missiles should not be awaited before making a decision in the end.”
Ukrainian city is alreadyOverwhelmedExpensive air rescues are rare, and Drone interceptorTake time out on scale including training operators.
In July, Maria Burlynska, head of the Victory Drone Project,Warned that no one would “after war”, Describing the ongoing war as a preamble for a technical third World War and urged Europe to join Ukraine in joint defense against flocks of autonomous drones on cities. His warning is becoming a reality.
Olecasandra Ustinova, a Ukrainian legalist of the Holos Party, told me that he is afraid that by 2026 more Russian drone cities will be flooded and they will be protectiveNetCitizens will need to be molded.
Ukraine is currently following an air campaign against Russian oil refineries to close revenue for the finance of the Kremlin’s war. Luke Coffee, a senior companion at the Hudson Institute, said, “As Ukraine has developed its long -range strike capabilities, the pressure on Russia will only increase.” It has also targeted Shahd drone Factories – Not only to lower the arrow, but also to hit the archer. This strategy works.
The summer of Ukraine was paid at Shahd production and storage sites. According to Ukrainian outlet MilitaryLaunched from 6,303 to 4,132 in July – one third in August. The extreme attacks of Russia were up to 100 or 120 from a herd of about 700 drones, and only a few dozen in a few days. Kiev has shown that it can choke both the production and reserves of these weapons.
Lesson is not alone, but prevention. This means that Ukraine supplies with long-range missiles to attack Russian drone factories-and shot any Russian fighters violating NATO airspace.
The risk of Moscow is increasing. Half of the measures will not be sufficient. When TurkishShot downIn 2015, a Russian fighter Jet, Kremlin supported. The same principle applies today – Russia only respects strength.
David KirchenkoThe Henry Jackson Society has an associate research fello.
