Eliminator power rankings: Use Bills or Texans in Week 16

December 17, 2025, 01:00 PM ET

espn eliminator challenge One of the most fun games to play this NFL season. The rules are simple: choose a team, and as long as they win (or tie), you advance to the next round. If they lose, you are out. The caveat is that you cannot choose the same team twice. If you’re one of the 0.7% of entries that made it this far, pat yourself on the back.

At this point in the season, it is important to monitor the availability of selections in your group, especially in a week where one team projects as an underdog.

houston texans More than half of the remaining eliminator entries are being chosen at the beginning of the week. They are available for 58% of Eliminator Challenge entries, but this will vary for each group. The more teams the Texans have available to them, the more valuable Fading will become.

two weeks ago, tampa bay buccaneers were in a similar situation, getting about 50% selection compared to New Orleans SaintsThe Buccaneers lost that game outright, However, while the Buccaneers were 8,5-point favorites, the Texans are held by 14,5 points, making it much less likely that they will get an advantage from the fadeout,

Outside of Texas, the only other double-digit favorites are buffalo billIf available, the larger favorites are billed as preferred choices over lesser selections, If not, there is a significant drop in win probability for the next best teams, where it is difficult to avoid picking Houston, detroit lions, philadelphia eagles And the Saints are the best of the rest, but all take more risks.

Mike Clay’s Eliminator Challenge Cheat Sheet

The Bills are the second-biggest favorite according to betting markets, Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics. Their selection will be disappointing, as only 13% of users still have them available. They host the Jets in Week 18, so there’s reason to protect them, but then there should be other strong options. The Browns are rated as the worst team in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics, and they are coming off their worst offensive game of the season by EPA per game.

Mike Clay’s chances of winning: 78% (2nd)
Chances to Win ESPN Analytics: 80%(sec)
DraftKings Sportsbook Line: Bill -10 (-575 Moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge Week 16 Selection: 7% (fourth)
Eliminator Challenge Availability: 13%
Remaining programs: PHI, NYJ

According to Mike Clay’s model, this is the most lopsided matchup in the last three weeks. It’s almost impossible to make claims about how the Raiders can move the ball against the Texans’ second-ranked defense. The Raiders have lost 11 of their last 12 games, while the Texans have won six in a row. Every selection after the Texans is leaving significant win potential, so it’s hard to rank them any lower.

Mike Clay’s chances of winning: 93% (1st)
Chances to Win ESPN Analytics: 80% (1st)
DraftKings Sportsbook Line: Texas -14.5 (-1650 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge Week 16 Selection: 51% (1st)
Eliminator Challenge Availability: 58%
Remaining programs: on LAC, IND

While the Lions and Steelers have identical records, ESPN Analytics views the Lions as the second-best team in the NFL, while the Steelers are 18th. The betting market agrees with this difference, as the Lions are the third-biggest favorites this week. The Lions have won 15 consecutive games after the loss. He’s also only 9% available and ends the season with two road games, so his picks will be low and have no value in the future.

Mike Clay’s chances of winning: 69% (5th)
Chances to Win ESPN Analytics: 66% (5th)
DraftKings Sportsbook Line: Leo-7 (-325 Dhanrekha)
Eliminator Challenge Week 16 Selection: 1% (8th)
Eliminator Challenge Availability: 9%
Remaining programs: ON MIN, ON CHI

The Commanders have been a great team to make waves throughout the season. while they beat New York Giants Last week, they had lost eight games in a row before that. During that nine-game span, they ranked last in the NFL in defensive EPA per game. The Eagles have been up and down all season, but against a poor Commanders team, they have emerged as one of the biggest favorites of the week, even on the road. Just be sure to wait until Week 18 where the Eagles will host the Commanders in their second meeting in three weeks.

Mike Clay’s chance of winning: 70% (4th)
Chances to Win ESPN Analytics: 68% (4th)
DraftKings Sportsbook Line: Eagles -6.5 (-310 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge Week 16 Selection: 17% (second)
Eliminator Challenge Availability: 41%
Remaining programs: BUF, on WSH

Believe it or not, the Saints are the third-biggest favorite this week according to Mike Clay’s model. Over the past three weeks, the Jets have ranked in the bottom three in both offensive and defensive EPA per game, while the Saints are 22nd in offense and 10th in defense. Since the Saints turned to 3-3 tyler shaw With back-to-back wins. ESPN Analytics has a 3.3 point differential between these teams on neutral grounds, and with the Saints having home field, they are a good team to pick.

Mike Clay’s chances of winning: 74% (3rd)
Chances to Win ESPN Analytics: 64% (sixth)
DraftKings Sportsbook Line: Saints -4.5 (-218 Moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge Week 16 Selection: 3% (seventh)
Eliminator Challenge Availability: 99%
Remaining programs: In TEN, in ATL

Last week, the Chiefs started as 11.5-point favorites on the lookahead line. Now the spread sits at 3.5 patrick mahomes‘Injuries and the Chiefs being out of the playoff race. However, ESPN Analytics sees value in the Chiefs and ranks them as the third-highest favorite this week. The Titans are the second-worst team in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics and the only team without a home win this season.