Big names may not be on the ballot on November 4, but the hopes and dreams of many prominent politicians will be at stake in this year’s election. These are the races that will create waves in the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential elections.
First, voter approval proposal 50The Election Fraud Response ActIt could make a California dream a reality for congressional Democrats and a nightmare for Republicans.
The constitutional amendment on this year’s ballot would allow the Democratic majority in the state Legislature to draw a new congressional map to replace the map created five years ago by the state’s non-partisan Redistricting Commission. The fate of the question on Nov. 4 could make or break Democrats’ chances of retaking the U.S. House next year. If voters support the plan, redistricting could add five seats to the state’s Democratic delegation in the U.S. House. The party desperately needs those seats to offset Republican redistricting gains in Texas, Missouri and other red states.
A defeat would be a significant blow to Democratic hopes of regaining the House majority in 2026 and to the 2028 presidential ambitions of Gov. Gavin Newsom (D). But the governor has wisely framed this race as an urgent effort to stop President Trump’s destructive congressional agenda in its tracks in a bright blue state.
In Pennsylvania, voters will decide whether to retain three Democratic judges in their positions State Supreme Court,
We live in a politically contentious environment, so judicial elections deserve a lot of attention. In whose favor did the US Supreme Court decide the tough presidential race? George W Bush in 2000It’s possible that a state court could choose the next occupant of the White House.
Democrats currently have one 5-2 majority on the state high courtIf at least two of the three Democratic justices retain their jobs, their party will have a majority on the court for at least the next ten years, including the 2028 presidential race in a key battleground state and redistricting after the 2030 census.
The media and political communities have not focused much attention on this campaign, but if there is a tight presidential race here and then a bitter legal dispute over the winner of the state’s 19 electoral votes, the replacement of the three judges could help Republicans in 2028.
It’s hard to see Democrats winning enough electoral votes to secure the presidency in 2028 without a win in a purple state like Pennsylvania — good reason for the Keystone State nickname.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is one of several Democrats considering a presidential bid in three years. The list of other Democrats who want to move from the governor’s mansion at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue includes Newsom, JB Pritzker (Illinois), Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan) and Tim Walz (Minnesota). The nomination of a governor over a Washington, D.C. establishment candidate gives Democrats an opportunity to reshape the party’s battered national image.
The theme of next month’s mayoral elections could be “out with the old and in with the new.” With Americans in a very bad mood, this could be a topic in the midterm and presidential elections.
New York City is in the spotlight, but Minneapolis and Seattle also have heated municipal races that deserve attention. In all three cases, established candidates battle progressive insurgents, and the results could mark the temperature for incumbent Congressional candidates in 12 months.
In the Big Apple, Democratic socialist State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani is running with the Democratic Party nomination against former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo (D), who lost the party primary but placed himself on the ballot as an independent. Katie Wilson, a progressive insurgent and grassroots activist, is challenging Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell. In Minneapolis, another democratic socialist, State Senator Omar Fateh, challenged Mayor Jacob Frey.
Progressive victories in these three mayoral races would strengthen the left wing of the Democratic Party in the fight to challenge the dominance of the party center. In New York and Minneapolis, progressive candidates are supported by key members of Congress, Reps. alexandria ocasio cortez (D.N.Y.) and Ilhan Omar (D-Min.). As a champion of the strong Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic Party, AOC could be a presidential candidate herself in three years.
There is also a tough race for governors Virginia and New JerseyThe Democratic candidates, Abigail Spanberger in Old Dominion and Mickey Sherrill in the Garden State, are both women, veterans of the U.S. House of Representatives and centrists with national security credentials. Several Democratic governors may run for president in 2028, and victory in these races could both strengthen the contenders and strengthen the party’s gubernatorial base nationally. Victory in both states could also strengthen the fortunes of the leading female presidential candidate, former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Sherrill and Spanberger ideologically fit their statewide constituencies, while the three progressive anti-establishment mayoral candidates match them. If both centrist Democratic candidates for governor win this November and three progressive mayoral candidates run, the competition for the next presidential nomination will intensify between both sides of the Democratic Party.
The next Democratic presidential candidate will have to bring both factions together to win the White House. This will be difficult, but the common desire of both groups to rid the nation of the last repulsive vestiges of Trumpism will make the difficult task easier.
brad bannon Bannon is a national Democratic strategist and CEO of Communications Research who polls for Democrats, labor unions, and progressive issue groups. He hosts the popular progressive podcast on power, politics and policy, Deadline DC with Brad Bannon,
