Early Men’s Final Four preview: Arizona-Michigan, UConn-Illinois predictions

The 2026 Men’s Final Four is set!

Yukon Will start Saturday’s national semi-final against Illinois After making a successful comeback against ruler into the Elite Eight, followed by a battle of No. 1 seeds Arizona And michigan in indianapolis. Who do ESPN’s college basketball experts see advancing to the championship game on April 6?

Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf break down how each team approached the final weekend of the NCAA Tournament – ​​and what their keys are to advancing to the title game. Find his predictions below.

final four preview

8:49 PM ET, Saturday

What to know about Arizona?

The No. 1 factor that helped Arizona reach the Final Four: The Wildcats’ consistency in the paint has been unparalleled, and it carried them when it mattered in the NCAA Tournament.

For the season, Arizona ranked fifth in the nation in paint points, averaging over 42. It also led the nation in free throw attempts with nearly 20 points per game at the line. Against another dominant paint team in Arkansas in the Sweet 16, Arizona had perhaps its most efficient interior performance yet seen in March: the Wildcats had 60 paint points and 30 points from the free throw line, the most combined points in an NCAA Tournament game in the past 20 years. Then, after Purdue wore them down in the first half of their Elite Eight showdown, the Wildcats played with more urgency and imposed their will in the second half. The Wildcats finished with 40 paint points and 20 points from the free throw line, outscoring the Boilermakers by a combined 28 points in those areas.

It’s not just post scoring koa peat And motijus crevas or aggressive counterattack tobe awka; It is also continuously attacking jaden bradley, brayden burys And Ivan Kharchenkov. Coach Tommy Lloyd preaches paint point, and it is reflected in every part of his team’s offense. — Borzello

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Brayden Burries’ spirited play hinders Arizona’s Elite Eight win

Braden Burries dives onto the floor and passes the ball to Ivan Kharchenkov for a layup to help send the Wildcats to the Final Four.

Arizona’s keys against Michigan: This will be the ultimate battle of strength in the paint, but Arizona is more reliant – and better – at dominating the glass and finishing at the rim. This is the key. The Wildcats are in the top five nationally in paint points per game and offensive rebound percentage, and they lead the nation in free throw attempts per game. Meanwhile, Michigan is in the top five in 2-point defense, block rate and average 2-point attempt distance defensively. The Wolverines also limit their fouling. Can Arizona continue to control the paint against a team that can match it from a size and physicality perspective?

The situation is similar at the other end of the court. Michigan shoots better than 61% inside the arc and ranks in the top 20 in paint points and second-chance points per game. Arizona will have to win internal battles on both ends. — Borzello

What to know about Michigan?

The No. 1 factor that helped Michigan reach the Final Four: The Wolverines can change gears quickly and reach a level that few teams can match. Their Elite Eight victory over Tennessee was arguably the most complete game any team has seen in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan outscored the Volunteers 48–26 in the first half and held them to just 85 points per 100 possessions. With 10:52 left to play in the first half, Tennessee held a 16–15 lead over Michigan; The Wolverines then began a 33–10 rally to end the half. Tennessee coach Rick Barnes had his head in his hands. What can one do when Michigan plays like this?

The Wolverines are big, they have stars and they play great defense – and when it comes time to stand on the field and fight, no team is better than them. So Michigan is going to Indianapolis. — medcalf

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Yaxel Lendeborg gets sweet and 1 for Michigan

Yaxel Lendeborg drives and gets a smooth reverse and -1 layup for Michigan vs. Tennessee.

Michigan’s keys against Arizona: The Wolverines must force the Wildcats to take shots outside the paint and neutralize all routes to the rim. Arizona is really a tough team to compete against when it can get downhill, penetrate and attack teams in the lane. The Wildcats are in the top 10 nationally in drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line: That’s been their bread and butter, and they’re better at that strategy than any team in Indianapolis.

On offense, Michigan will need to stretch Arizona’s defense by shooting well from the 3-point line. The Wildcats’ four NCAA Tournament opponents have struggled from beyond the arc, but the Wolverines have made 40% of their 3s since March 1. If Arizona is forced to focus on what Michigan is doing on the perimeter, it will create more space. Yaxel Lendeborg, paid off And Morez Johnson Jr. To operate in the lane.

Still, against this strong Arizona team, Michigan may need Lendeborg to come up with a high-level performance equal to the 27-point effort he had against Tennessee in the Elite Eight. — medcalf

Arizona vs Michigan Predictions

Borzello’s prediction: Arizona, 82-80
Medcalf’s prediction: Michigan, 78-76

6:09 PM ET, Saturday

What to know about UConn?

The No. 1 factor that helped UConn reach the Final Four: taris reed jr And the experience has carried them this far, allowing the Huskies to maintain the type of composure they needed to deal with a Duke team that blew a 19-point lead in the first half. Three players in the starting rotation have been in coach Dan Hurley’s system for at least two years, which is rare in the current landscape. Illinois would be the only team in Indianapolis that could match that.

Hurley is as good at recruiting as he is at retention. New Braylon Mullins He’s had an up-and-down season, never seeming to make consistent progress, but he was a five-star recruit for a reason. When Hurley turned to Mullins, he hit the biggest 3-pointer of his life with 0.4 seconds remaining and sent UConn back to the Final Four.

The Huskies held Duke to a clip of 100 points per 100 possessions in the second half after the Blue Devils scored 147 points per 100 possessions in the first half. UConn kept fighting and won. — medcalf

UConn’s keys against Illinois: Illinois has been the best offensive team in the country, but it also played elite defense against Houston in the Sweet 16 and Iowa in the Elite Eight. UConn needs to address this. The Huskies’ size allows them to play in a restrictive zone that stifles opponents. Houston and Iowa both made less than 40% of their shots inside the arc against Illinois, so UConn’s game plan will have to start with Reed, who has scored at least 20 points in three of his last four games. The Huskies’ big man was dominant against Duke, and he will have to be great against Illinois in the post so the Fighting Illini can’t get comfortable in that area. The Huskies will also have to take advantage of pockets in Illinois’ defense; Reed’s production will be the key to achieving this.

On defense, it all starts with guarding Keaton Wagler. The Huskies have several guards they can throw at the 6-foot-5 projected NBA draft lottery pick. They cannot allow him to perform in large numbers.

Protecting the rim will also matter against one of the biggest teams in Indianapolis. — medcalf

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Keaton Wagler loses defender and then hits 3 for Illinois

Keaton Wagler lost a defender and then hit an open 3-pointer for Illinois.

What to know about Illinois

The No. 1 factor that helped Illinois reach the Final Four: The Illini’s offense is one of the most efficient kenpom history, but it was his defense that propelled this run to Indianapolis. They held VCU to 55 points and 0.83 points per possession in the Round of 32, Houston to 55 points and 0.94 points per possession in the Sweet 16, and Iowa to 59 points and 1.08 points per possession in the Elite Eight. He has protected the rim and paint at an incredibly high level, limiting all three of the above opponents to under 48% from inside the arc. (Iowa had only seven 2-pointers on Saturday.)

This is a dramatic improvement from their defensive performance at the end of the regular season, when the Illini saw six of their last nine opponents score at least 1.17 points per possession, and lost five of their eight over that span. Their offense hasn’t let up, but their defense is suddenly looking like a top-10 unit, which is a season-changing development for coach Brad Underwood’s team. — Borzello

Illinois’ keys against UConn: The biggest key will be to limit Reed – or get him into foul trouble. Reed has been one of the most impressive big men this NCAA Tournament, and his ability to score at the rim in single coverage has offset the Huskies’ inconsistent perimeter shooting. but with this Eric Riebe While he hasn’t been as effective as he was earlier in the season, UConn faces a huge blow on both ends of the court with Reed out.

The second key will be the 3-point battle. The Huskies have made double-digit 3s once since Feb. 18, but they have not missed double-digit 3s in that same span. Illinois attempts 3s at a higher rate than almost any team in the country, while UConn’s shotmakers – alex karban, solo ball And Mullins – have been inconsistent. The Illini can beat the Huskies. — Borzello

UConn vs Illinois Predictions

Borzello’s prediction: UConn, 74-72
Medcalf’s prediction: UConn, 77-73