Virginia Democrat Saw wins across the board The state heads into off-year elections Tuesday evening, with at-large races for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.
environment on land proved beneficial for the democratsWho took advantage of dissatisfaction over the economy and President Trump’s efforts to reduce the size of the federal workforce.
On the other hand, Republicans were unable to repeat their victory four years earlier under Governor Glenn Youngkin (R), even in the face of a scandal that was hampering Democrats in the Attorney General race.
Here are five takeaways from Virginia’s 2025 elections:
Spanberger dominates
The victory of former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) was not a surprise. Most polls showed him leading Lieutenant Governor Winsom Earle-Sears (R) by between 6 and 10 points. As of 9 p.m. Tuesday, Spanberger led his opponent from 56.2 percent support to 43.8 percent.
Throughout the campaign, Spanberger remained focused on her message of affordability and protecting the state’s large federal workforce from Trump administration cuts. Early exit polling indicated that both of these issues were top of mind for Virginia voters. According to an ABC News exit poll, 6 in 10 Virginia voters said federal workforce cutbacks this year have hit their family financially. Two in 10 voters said the cuts had a “great deal” of an impact on their finances.
Earl-Sears struggled to find an issue that stuck with voters, often finding herself on the defensive over workforce cuts. The lieutenant governor attempted to take a page out of Youngkin’s 2021 playbook by focusing on cultural issues. Earl-Sears often labeled Spanberger as “they/them” and supported policies that allow “men in the girls’ locker room” and parents unaware that their children want gender-affirming care. The strategy did not excite or influence voters enough to get them across the finish line.
Jones dashes expectations amid scandal
While the Attorney General race was always considered smaller than statewide races, Republicans saw a bigger opportunity when a late-season scandal affected Democratic nominee Jay Jones.
Last month, text messages sent by Jones to a Republican representative in 2022 were revealed in which Jones openly talked about firing then-state House Speaker Todd Gilbert (R). Republicans, including Youngkin, Earl-Sears, outgoing state Attorney General Jason Miyares, President Trump, and Vice President Vance, all called on Jones to drop her bid. Democrats, including Spanberger, immediately condemned the remarks, but did not call on him to drop out of the race.
The issue soon became the subject of Miyares’ campaign advertisements, even as Republicans used the scandal to attract Spanberger voters. Jones, who apologized for the texts, remained focused on linking Miyares to Trump. Jones and Virginia Democrats argued that another term for Miyares would mean one less layer of protection from the Trump administration.
Polling in October remained mixed, with most election forecasters rating the race as a toss-up. Some speculated that the race might signal the first split ticket in Virginia in 20 years, but ultimately it appeared that Spanberger’s victory and the general atmosphere for the Democrats was enough to save Jones.
Trump’s attacks are beneficial for Democrats
The Virginia race was largely considered a referendum on Trump’s second term in office, leading to a loss for Republicans.
Spanberger and Jones repeatedly linked their opponents to Trump, hoping that his unpopularity in the state would help them win. A recent Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey found that 54 percent of Virginia voters disapprove of his job performance.
Republicans also faced historically unfavorable odds, given that the party of an incumbent president loses the Virginia gubernatorial race during the president’s first term. Additionally, Virginia Democrats perform better when Trump is in office.
During Trump’s first administration in 2017, Democrats won the races for governor, lieutenant governor, and state attorney general. That year the Democrats did not gain a majority in the House of Representatives, but they did reduce the GOP majority to one seat. Then in 2019, Democrats gained control of the House of Delegates and the state Senate, giving the party control of both legislative chambers and the Governor’s Mansion for the first time since 1994.
But Trump’s disappointing numbers in the state, coupled with the administration’s actions to reduce the federal workforce, made the environment even more fertile for Virginia Democrats.
In his first reaction to Tuesday’s results, the president appeared to blame his absence from the vote and the government shutdown.
“According to pollsters, ‘Trump not being on the ballot, and the shutdown, were the two reasons Republicans lost the election tonight,'” the president wrote on Truth Social.
Two Democrats created history
On Tuesday, Virginia held a history-making election, with Spanberger set to become the first woman to serve as the state’s governor. The outcome in the governor’s race would have been historic no matter what, Earl-Sears would have been both the first woman and the first black woman to lead the state.
History was also made in the race for lieutenant governor, with Democrat Ghazala Hashmi becoming the first Indian to hold statewide office in the Commonwealth and the first Muslim woman to win a statewide race in the US.
Like the governor’s race, the lieutenant governor’s race was also on track to be historic. Republican lieutenant governor candidate John Reed will be the first openly gay Republican elected to statewide office.
Hashmi’s historic victory resulted in Zoharan Mamdani becoming the first Muslim to be elected mayor of New York City. Both Hashmi and Mamdani faced attacks regarding their religion throughout the campaign.
The results have reignited debate over the future of the Democratic Party.
While Democrats clearly had a successful night across the board, there are still questions about the party’s direction in next year’s midterm elections.
Centrist Democrats saw major victories with Spanberger and New Jersey Governor-elect Mickey Sherrill, both Democrats who have repeatedly proven their ability to win competitive races. Meanwhile, progressives saw a landslide victory with Mamdani in New York City, which could double as the nail in the coffin for former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo’s political career.
Republicans have expressed concern about the superior performance of Spanberger and Sherrill. Meanwhile, they have been eager to connect the Democrats to Mamdani.
In a statement, the National Republican Campaign Committee said Democrats have “surrendered” to Mamdani and the far-left mob, which now runs the show. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), who is considering a run for governor, argued in a statement that Mamdani’s victory shows that “the only way to save our great state and provide control over this madness is to elect a Republican governor in 2026.”
Democrats will need to decide whether their party’s tent is big enough for centrists and progressives, especially in the face of conservative attacks on progressives.
