Democrats across the country were victorious Tuesday night, winning crucial elections that brought the party out of its year-long hiatus and back on the political playing field. Indeed, after dedicating a largely symbolic “resistance,” they were able to score points against President Trump and the steamroller of the Republican Party.
Now, after wins in Virginia, New Jersey and California, broader questions remain for Democrats.
Specifically, did Democrats find a new roadmap to continued success? Or were their off-year election victories in blue states like Virginia and New Jersey due more to dissatisfaction with Trump than to Democrats?
Of course, this isn’t to take anything away from the Democrats who won.
Former Representative Abigail Spanberger (D) won Virginia’s gubernatorial race with the largest margin of victory for a Democrat in more than 60 years. to perform better Former Governors Ralph Northam (D) and Terry McAuliffe (D), as well as former Vice President Kamala Harris, with significant suburban voters.
Similarly, in New Jersey, Representative Mickey Sherrill (D)”dominanceAreas with large numbers of black and Hispanic voters reversed the gains Trump had made with these groups in 2024.
In Passaic County, a Democratic-leaning county with a large Hispanic population, Sherrill won By 15 points exactly one year after Trump was flipped County. Throughout the Garden State, Sherrill’s 13-point margin of victory was nearly triple that of Harris.
Ultimately, after initial resistance, California voters easily passed the state’s redistricting ballot Proposition 50 by an overwhelming majority. two-to-one ratio,
So will the factors that led Democrats to victory this year continue in the midterms and perhaps even the 2028 elections?
First, although these elections are often considered unexpected, they must be seen in context. Not only were the Democrats expected to win – even though the size of their victory was surprising – but historically, off-year elections benefit the party out of power, whose voters are often more motivated.
To put it another way, as Karl Rove Mentioned in the Wall Street Journal“Republicans were happy … and stayed home. … Democrats were not happy and came out.”
Independents also expressed their disappointment. In Virginia And new JerseySpanberger and Sherrill won 59 and 56 percent of the independents, respectively.
Ultimately, Tuesday’s polls highlight important facts for both parties moving forward.
For Democrats, Trump remains their best but often only campaign tool. While Republicans generally perform poorly without Trump on the ballot, Democrats have historically been successful in turning elections into referendums about Trump.
Majorities in California (59 percent), Virginia (54 percent) and New Jersey (53 percent) said Trump was a factor in their vote. cbs voting,
voting Waters in all three states show Trump’s approval rating at least 15 points, indicating a receptive audience for the anti-Trump message. Trump and the Republicans need to understand that voters do not believe they have accomplished what they were elected to do – particularly on the economy and reducing the cost of living.
With that in mind, Trump’s messaging so far on affordability has sunk that of former President Joe Biden. Instead of explaining how his policies would reduce costs, Trump Voice Inflation is “dead” or “fake news.” He’s essentially telling voters not to believe what they’re personally experiencing — just like “Bidenomics.”
Similarly, when Trump regularly boasts of higher tariff revenues, he seems to forget that Americans are the ones bearing that burden, and nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of Americans expect prices to rise, According to CBS News,
The Republican Party needs to recommit to its own “affordability agenda” and emphasize pro-growth policies. Otherwise, Democrats will continue to score points on the economy.
Also, while Democrats should be happy about last Tuesday, they’re not out of the woods. Americans may be angry with Trump’s handling of the economy — he has just 38 percent approval on the issue, according to a CBS poll — but just 28 percent of Americans think the Democrats would be better.
Trump’s political director acknowledged the need for reform politico Trump will focus more on affordability going forward. If Democrats do not have their own, competing economic agenda, their advantage will be short-lived.
Additionally, Tuesday did nothing to resolve the Democrats’ intraparty ideological conflict. A victory for democratic socialist Zoharan Mamdani (D) in New York City could actually escalate the conflict between moderates like Spanberger and Sherrill and the left wing of the party.
Fair or not, the entire Democratic Party will be forced to answer for Mamdani’s policies, especially if they contribute to the decline of New York City’s economy and quality of life, to say nothing of Mamdani overtly. courtship of anti-semites,
Ultimately, the full impact of Tuesday’s elections remains to be seen. Whether these are the first signs of a revitalized Democratic Party depends on the party’s ability to unify around a moderate, compelling agenda that goes beyond “we’re not Donald Trump.”
And Republicans would be wise to stop declaring inflation dead, seeing as it is not. His best bet is to return to the pro-growth, cost-cutting policies that contributed to his 2024 sweep.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners at the New York-based opinion firm Schoen Cooperman Research. He is the co-author of the book, “America: unite or die,
