After 14 weeks, five rankings and a chaotic Selection Day, the 2025 College Football Playoff is finally here. The second edition of the 12-team field brings two Groups of 5 teams, a new No. 1 seed for the postseason, and five teams from the SEC alone.
But how do punters make sense of all the chaos?
To break it down, Pamela Maldonado gives us the outlook for the field (including a strength and a fault for each team), David Purdum has some insight on what sportsbooks are looking for in post-season picks and Joe Fortenbaugh and the Maldonado team give us their best bets for the playoffs.
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team approach , odds and ends , best bet
strengths and fault lines
Now is the time to ignore the resume and think about the qualities. Every team that survives playoff football has a defining characteristic that scales under pressure, or a flaw that can emerge when the lights are bright.
Take away the records, and the postseason becomes a study in who can set style, withstand disruption, and who collapses the moment the game leaves its script.
This 12-team field is full of strengths, but even more full of fault lines, and that’s where the separation begins. Here’s a quick look at each playoff team.
James Madison Dukes, JMU’s playoff fate is almost entirely run-dependent. The Dukes’ run game is elite and their defense is top tier, but a passing grade outside the top 60 highlights a ceiling problem. If an opponent forces them into obvious passing situations, their entire identity breaks down.
oregon duck, The Ducks’ calling card is offensive completion. The top four passing grade and best run grade in the country makes them one of the toughest teams to defend. But their flaw comes from a defense that bends rather than commands. Oregon’s middle run defense and pass rush are liabilities.
Texas Tech Red Raiders, The defining characteristic of the Red Raiders is complete defensive dominance. No. 1 in run defense, tackling, coverage and best pass rush in all of college. TTU destroys, suffocates and humiliates everything you have. Add 31 takeaways, and you have the most playoff-steady profile in the area.
alabama crimson tide, The Tide have an inability to generate pressure, as ranking in the bottom five is a fatal flaw against elite quarterbacks. Their coverage is excellent – but without pressure the coverage eventually breaks down. Combine this with a below-average running game and inconsistent offense, and Bama becomes a team that relies on low tempo and a low-possession game to get ahead.
oklahoma sooners, The Sooners have a front seven that disrupts momentum and ranks in the top 15, and has paired it with a run defense that forces opponents to anticipate. The problem is their crime. Passing, rushing and blocking down low makes OU vulnerable to any defense that can match the physicality.
Indiana Hoosiers, The Hoosiers’ strength is maintaining balance at the championship level. They are top 10 in passing, rushing, run defense, tackling, coverage and elite run blocking, which means every angle is covered offensively and defensively – giving them no glaring weaknesses. Their profile is better than any team as they can win games with fast, slow, physical or clever styles without losing identity.
Tulane Green Wave, The harsh truth is that Tulane has a defense that cannot hold up under playoff pressure. With a run defense ranked 101st, tackles in the 80s, and coverage in the 70s, the Green Wave will likely be swept out of the first round, overwhelmed by an offense with structure. Once the players on the other side establish a rhythm, Tulane has no counter attack.
ole miss rebels, The Rebels’ offensive explosiveness is trapped inside faulty trench play. He can score on anyone due to competent passing and rushing efficiency, but a 95th run block grade and a pass rush grade barely inside the top 100 creates instability. Against physical teams, his style collapses in four quarters.
Georgia Bulldogs, The Bulldogs’ playoff run hinges directly on an upset. They can absolutely harass teams that need rhythm (as seen against Alabama) but when they face a quarterback who thrives without it, their style is put to the test. In the semifinals or title game, an opponent with an off-script composition can apply pressure on this front in a way Alabama never can.
miami storm, The Hurricanes are the definition of high-end instability driven by elite pass rush and terrible tackling. They can put pressure on offensive lines but missed tackles (114th) create explosiveness on the other side. His offense is steady enough to capitalize on, but his defensive inconsistency makes him dangerous as an underdog but unreliable as an underdog.
Texas A&M Aggies, The Aggies have trench ability without trench dominance. He has a strong pass rush and solid run defense, which allows him to make plays dirty, but having a lower passing grade limits his ability to capitalize on stops. They’re a classic spoiler team: strong enough to drag the contenders into uncomfortable games, but not dynamic enough to win playoff slugfests.
Ohio State Buckeyes, The Buckeyes are precise without chaos. Elite in almost everything: passing efficiency, run blocking, run defense, tackling, but lacking in pressure generation, which limits his ability to dictate the game on defense against strong offensive opponents. They win when the game remains clean and scripted, but they also struggle when opponents emphasize creativity and balance.
odds and ends
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The starting lines for the first-round games varied across sportsbooks, especially on the Alabama–Oklahoma game. DraftKings Sportsbook opened the Sooners as 1.5-point favorites, while other bookmakers installed the Crimson Tide as smaller favorites. The consensus line on Monday was Alabama -1.5, but some sportsbooks had the game listed as a pick ’em, and others had the Sooners listed as small favorites.
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Oddsmakers estimated that the loss of coach Lane Kiffin would impact the point spread on Ole Miss games by up to four points, but it appears to be even greater than that. The Rebels were 23.5-point favorites over Tulane in a blowout 45–10 win over the Green Wave on September 20. Ole Miss opened as a 16.5-point favorite in its first-round matchup at Tulane.
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Oregon was installed as a 21-point favorite at James Madison, the largest spread in four first-round games. If the line remains at 20 or higher, it will be the largest point spread ever on a CFP game. The Ducks have won 43 consecutive games when favored by at least 20 points. They are 14-7 against the spread in such games under coach Dan Lanning.
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Joey Feasel, who oversees soccer odds for Caesars Sportsbook, told ESPN on Sunday that he saw minimal early action on the first-round point spread. “Speculators wait for more information and market movement before committing,” Feazell said. “As the lines have begun to settle, we’ve seen some notable changes: Ole Miss has dropped by a head of 17, now sitting at -16.5, while Texas A&M has gone from -3 to -4.”
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Texas A&M is 5-7 against the spread this season, the worst ATS mark of any of the 12 teams in the CFP. The Aggies are only 2-5 ATS at home. , Purdum
best bet
Oklahoma Sooners (+1.5) at Alabama Crimson Tide.
The game will begin on December 19 at 7 PM local time in Norman, Oklahoma with a total score of 40.5. So, given the information we have in front of us at the moment – the possibility of cold temperatures, the possibility of low scoring – which of the following options would you be more inclined to support with your hard-earned money:
I’ll be rooting for Oklahoma to win the rematch, especially at quarterback john mater There is a rest of 20 days to prepare for this game. , fortenbaugh
Texas A&M Aggies at Miami Hurricanes (-3.5).
In the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff, first-round home teams went 4–0 straight up against the spread while winning by an average of 19.2 points per game. Furthermore, those four winners covered the endpoint with an astonishing 10.2 point spread per game. Needless to say, home field advantage in this game is extremely valuable given this playoff format.
This is a good buy-low spot for A&M after the season-ending loss to Texas is still fresh in everyone’s mind. Perhaps more importantly, it can’t be overstated how much I don’t trust Miami head coach Mario Cristobal in high-leverage, late-game scenarios. , fortenbaugh
Indiana to Win National Championship (+250)
HODL. I stand by my mid-season call. After Week 7, I had Indiana (+900) to win the national title.
There has been no change in that conviction since then. Indiana looks like a championship team: balanced, efficient, physical, creating turnovers and ready to win in any style.
National title odds: Ohio State +240, Indiana +250, Georgia +600, Texas Tech +800. These odds say there is no super team, no true favorite.
Odds to make the semifinals: Indiana at (-320) Suitable because they are a “who can really beat them” type of team. Ohio State (-260) is pure tax for a team that gets stops against elite fronts, and relies on rhythm and explosiveness.
My read: Indiana is still the most complete matchup team. Ohio State is the delicate favorite. Georgia’s prices are too high. Texas Tech is dangerous, but limited stylistically. , maldonado
Oregon to Win National Championship (+750)
The best prediction is undoubtedly an Indiana win. But the best value? Oregon.
Oregon has an offensive profile that can break down TTU’s defensive script and bring enough variation to threaten Indiana in a single-game sample.
The Ducks aren’t the best team on the field, but they are a team whose chances don’t match their upset equity. That’s what makes the +750 buy: a mispriced prospect, not a forecast.
The prediction is Indiana, but the price is Oregon. , maldonado
