Just when you thought a 12-team College Football Playoff was the solution… it might be even messier than before.
Duke, with five losses, can win the ACC. Three of the four power conferences will have championship games featuring rematches (and Alabama may have to beat Georgia a second time to stay in the field). If BYU and Texas Tech are both in the Big 12, one of the current top 10 is eliminated.
There are still a lot of questions: Will the committee do something with Ole Miss after Lane Kiffin leaves? Will Miami get the edge on Notre Dame? Who are the true bubble teams?
How the committee votes in Tuesday night’s fifth ranking (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) will be a strong indicator of what the 12-team field will look like on Selection Day, but it isn’t the final answer.
Here at Bubble Watch is an account of what we’ve learned so far from the committee – and historical knowledge of what it means for the teams involved with hope. with teams will be in The situation below is looking good ahead of the committee’s fifth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we have also listed still in the mixteams that are Outside Will have to wait till next year.
The conferences below are ranked from highest to lowest based on the number of bids they received Top 12 launches of this weekCheck back after the selection show for an updated version that will reflect the committee’s final rankings,
Go to a conference:
acc , big 12 , big ten
seconds , Independent , group of 5
bracket
seconds
Will be here: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&MRight now, the Crimson Tide is the last major team in the field, Alabama will face Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, but the committee could have a tough decision if Alabama loses and finishes as the three-loss runner-up, The Tide may have defeated Georgia during the regular season but lost to the Bulldogs in the championship game – and they are already in a precarious position, How far Alabama falls could determine whether the SEC gets four or five teams in the field, Alabama could finish as the committee’s highest-ranked three-loss team and still be kept out of the playoff to make it to the conference champion – as they were last year,
A Georgia win should secure a first-round bye and a top-four berth for the Bulldogs, while a loss would still put them in position to host a first-round game. Georgia beat Ole Miss, so it would be surprising to see them fall to the Rebels with a loss, even though the Bulldogs would have had another loss. With a 35–10 loss to Texas on its resume, Georgia will still have a strong enough resume to finish as a top two losing team on the committee.
It will be interesting to see if Lane Kiffin’s departure affects Ole Miss’s ranking. The CFP protocol states that the committee will “consider other relevant factors such as the unavailability of key players and coaches, which may have affected the team’s performance during the season or possibly affect its post-season performance.” Ole Miss won’t miss the playoffs because Kiffin left for another job, but it could drop a spot or two if the committee feels the team won’t be the same without him.
Still in the mix: Texas. The Longhorns will get a promotion Tuesday night, but a win against Texas A&M is unlikely to keep them in the playoff. Texas would probably fall behind Miami due to a loss to Florida, which Miami defeated. Even if Texas Tech knocks BYU out of the top 12 by sweeping both Miami and Texas with wins in the Big 12 Championship Game, the Longhorns will still be eliminated from the field to make room for conference champion. If BYU And Alabama was eliminated in the title game with a loss, yet that probably wouldn’t be enough for Texas to get into the field, because even if Texas were seeded No. 11 by default, it would still be seeded out during the seeding process for the conference champion.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
big ten
Will be here: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon. Indiana and Ohio State are both CFP locks – even if they lose in the conference title game – and the runner-up will still have a strong case for a top-four finish and a first-round bye. The loser’s only loss would be to a top-two team, but could fall behind Georgia in the top four if the Bulldogs win the SEC, and/or Texas Tech if they win the Big 12.
The Ducks punctuated their resume with a respectable win in Washington and should remain secure in their playoff position, possibly hosting a first-round game. Oregon could get a slight edge this week if Texas A&M falls behind after losing to Texas.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
big 12
It will feature: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders will play BYU in the Big 12 title game and have a good case to be in the playoff regardless of the outcome. It’s highly unlikely that the selection committee will leave the Red Raiders out of the field as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up – especially given that their regular season win will be against the eventual conference champion. It’s also possible that Texas Tech earns a first-round bye as a top-four seed if the Red Raiders win the Big 12. If Texas A&M falls out after a loss to Texas, the committee could move them into the top four on Tuesday night.
Still in the mix: BYUIf BYU does not win the Big 12, it is unlikely to earn an at-large bid as the conference runner-up as the Cougars are already in the bubble and would be eliminated during the seeding process if the playoffs were today, However it is not impossible, If Alabama ends up as SEC runner-up with three losses, it could at least open the door for debate, It could be as simple as No, 10 Alabama and No, 11 BYU flipping positions on Selection Day, The difference would be that BYU had lost to Texas Tech twice, and Alabama would have defeated eventual SEC champion Georgia once – and it was on the road, If BYU wins the Big 12, it is the ideal scenario for the conference as it will have two teams in the playoff,
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, Utah, West Virginia
acc
Will be in: TBD. The ACC Championship Game will feature Virginia and Duke, and if five-loss Duke wins, it is possible that the ACC will be eliminated from the playoff. If Virginia wins, it will represent the league in the playoffs, as the Cavaliers with two losses are ranked in the top 20. And no, Miami did not play Duke or Virginia during the regular season. Duke lost to Tulane, which tops the Group of 5 playoff contenders and will reach the playoff if it wins American. Duke also lost to UConn. And it already lost to Virginia 34-17 on Nov. 15.
Still in the mix: MiamiThe Hurricanes will still be the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team on Tuesday night, but would be eliminated if the playoffs were held today to make room for the conference champion, This means the ACC winner can knock the league’s best team out of the playoffs, The committee isn’t ignoring Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame, but it also isn’t simply comparing the Canes to the Irish, Miami also needs to gain momentum against Alabama and BYU – two teams the committee has rated as better than Miami so far, If both of those teams lose their respective conference championship games, it would open the door for Miami to potentially enter the 12-team field with Notre Dame,
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Will be in: Notre Dame. The Irish have done everything right since the 0-2 start, moving up the table and performing with consistent dominance regardless of the opponent. At No. 9, the Irish are safely in the field — if they can stay there through conference championship chaos. The concern would be if Alabama wins the SEC and beats Notre Dame to push the Irish to No. 10 — and if BYU and Texas Tech both make the playoff. If BYU wins the Big 12, both teams are highly likely to reach the playoff, meaning one of the current top 10 would have to make the cut. The Irish will watch and wait and hope those two results don’t happen.
group of 5
Will be at: TulaneIf the Green Wave wins the American, they will represent Group of 5 in the playoffs, Tulane is currently the only Group 5 team ranked by the committee, but if North Texas wins, it would be the most likely team to reach the CFP, given the overall strength of the conference this season,
Still in the mix: James Madison, North Texas. JMU has clinched the East Division and a berth in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. North Texas will face Tulane in the American, and if it wins, it is more likely to represent the Group of 5 in the playoffs than JMU due to its schedule strength. JMU could still be considered, however, if Duke wins the ACC, giving the Group of 5 two playoff teams in the 12-team field.
bracket
based on This week’s launchSeeding will take place:
Bye in first round
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Georgia (SEC Champion)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 Champion)
first round games
On campus, December 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champion) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champion) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Notre Dame and No. 8 Oklahoma
quarterfinal game
The Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1, respectively.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Oregon champ vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Texas A&M Winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Ole Miss Winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma Winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
