Six teams are still eligible to reach the ACC Championship Game – Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Pitt, SMU and Virginia. The other four are still in the race to win the Big 12 (Arizona State, BYU, Texas Tech and Utah).
And don’t forget that Michigan can still make it to the Big Ten title game.
The bubble of hope heading into the final week of the regular season is bursting. With only rivalry week and the conference championship game remaining, the picture could still change drastically as teams add pauses to their resumes – or fall out altogether.
However, no changes are expected in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s fourth-out-of-six rankings Tuesday night (7 p.m. ET/ESPN). Eleven of the committee’s top 12 teams won on Saturday – and 10 of those wins came by double digits. When Latest Top 12 Launch Remained unchanged, teams on the bubble have relocated.
Here at Bubble Watch is an account of what we’ve learned so far from the committee – and historical knowledge of what it means for the teams involved with hope. with teams will be in Below are this week’s standings based on the committee’s third ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we have also listed in the final team And first team outThese are true bubble teams revolving around inclusion, Teams labeled still in the mix Not deleted, but has work to do or needs help. a team that is Outside Will have to wait till next year.
The conferences below are ranked from highest to lowest based on the number of bids they received This week’s launchCheck back after the selection show for an updated version that will account for the committee’s latest Top 25,
Go to a conference:
acc , big 12 , big ten
seconds , Independent , group of 5
bracket
seconds
Will be here: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Final Team: AlabamaThe Tide can either clinch their spot in the SEC Championship Game with a win against Auburn in the Iron Bowl – or they can miss the playoffs altogether with a loss to their rival, The debate begins when Alabama finishes as SEC runner-up with three losses, The Tide has played the ninth-toughest schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, and its resume will only be enhanced by facing a top-five opponent in the SEC Championship Game, A third loss, however, even in a close game against a top-five team, could drop Alabama into a dangerous spot in the top 12, where it could face elimination to become a guaranteed conference champion – or another Big 12 team,
First team out: VanderbiltThe Commodores can maintain the status quo this week, which means at No, 14 they will be in longshot for an at-large bid, Punctuating their resume with a win against ranked Tennessee is a great first step, but they’ll also need several upsets to be seriously considered, It’s not unimaginable, as Miami could lose to Pitt, Oklahoma could suffer a third loss to LSU, Alabama could lose the Iron Bowl, However, none of this matters without a win in Knoxville,
Still in the mix: none,
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
big ten
Will be at: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Final Team: OregonWith the win against USC, Oregon eliminated the biggest threat to its playoff spot in the Big Ten and further solidified its spot in the top 10, He may even have a case to overtake Ole Miss this week, According to ESPN Analytics, Oregon now has an 18% chance to reach the Big Ten title game, but it must beat Washington and it will need Michigan to beat Ohio State,
First team out: MichiganThe Wolverines are here because they can reach the Big Ten Championship Game with a win against Ohio State and a loss to Indiana or Oregon, Michigan no longer has to worry about a head-to-head loss to USC as the Trojans have suffered three losses and are likely to fall behind Michigan in the latest rankings, However, a loss to Oklahoma would probably keep them behind the Sooners for an at-large bid if they both finished with the same record, However, no one in the country will have a better win than Michigan if it defeats the Buckeyes for the fifth consecutive season,
Still in the mix: none,
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
big 12
Will be in: Texas Tech
Final Team: Texas TechThe Red Raiders can clinch a berth in the Big 12 title game with a win at West Virginia, As long as Texas Tech can do that, it should be a lock for the CFP – win or lose in the Big 12 Championship, It would be both surprising and difficult for the committee to justify excluding Texas Tech if its second loss comes to a top-11 BYU team that it defeated handily during the regular season, The Red Raiders would be the only team that could claim a regular season victory over the eventual Big 12 champion in that scenario,
First team out: BYUThe Cougars can clinch a berth in the Big 12 title game with a home win against UCF on Saturday, They would be a CFP lock with the Big 12 title, but a loss would likely knock them out of the bracket as they are already in a precarious position having lost to the same team twice, They will need several upsets to occur to remain in consideration as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up,
Still in the mix: Arizona State, UtahASU can earn a berth in the Big 12 title game with a win against Arizona and a BYU loss or a win and loss for both Texas Tech and Utah, If the Utes beat Kansas and BYU and Arizona State both win and Texas Tech loses they will reach the Big 12 title game,
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
acc
Will be in: Miami
Final Team: MiamiMiami’s chances of reaching the ACC title game are now 13% – third best in the league behind SMU and Virginia, which are both above 80%, This means that their best chance of reaching the CFP remains through an at-large bid, It is important they win at Pitt on Saturday and it would help if the committee ranked the Panthers tonight, The Canes have a compelling case to unseat Utah from 12th place this week after their third straight win over Virginia Tech by at least 17 points, It was Miami’s first road win outside its home state, which the committee was waiting for, Miami’s win against Notre Dame is one of the best in the country, but unless the Canes get close to the Irish in the rankings and get them into the same pool of teams that the group votes on, they will likely remain behind the Irish,
First team out: VirginiaOf all the complicated scenarios still left in the ACC, this isn’t one of them: If Virginia beats rival Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Cavaliers will clinch a spot in the conference title game, It will be interesting to see how the committee ranks three-loss SMU tonight, The Mustangs have the best chance to reach the ACC Championship Game (86%), followed by Virginia (81%) after Week 13, but SMU lost to Baylor, TCU and Wake Forest – both of whom are above ,500, If SMU wins at Cal on Saturday, the Mustangs will clinch a berth in the ACC title game, Virginia was the committee’s second-highest ranked ACC team behind Miami in its fourth seeding, and the Cavaliers received a bye,
Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, SMUHere you can find your complex scenarios, Pitt can advance to the ACC Championship Game with a win and a loss to either SMU or UVA, Duke can enter with a win and a loss against two of the following three teams: Pitt, SMU and Virginia, Georgia Tech needs a lot of things, it might want to find a church instead of Georgia,
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Will be in: Notre Dame. The Irish are doing everything right – they’re winning and looking good doing it. If they can seal the deal with a relatively easy win against Stanford, Notre Dame will be in the familiar position of waiting and watching as the conference championship games unfold and possibly change the picture. Notre Dame fans should keep a close eye on the SEC and Big 12 title games.
group of 5
Will be at: TulaneThis is where the committee will likely continue to differ from the computer, which says James Madison (57%) and North Texas (54,4%) have the best chance to make the playoff, JMU’s schedule is currently ranked 123rd, while North Texas is 127th, and it has given them both pause in the committee meeting room, Tulane is ranked No, 73 with wins against Duke and Northwestern, The No, 24 Green Wave will likely keep their spot as the committee’s highest-ranked Group of 5 teams this week after a 37-13 win at Temple, its largest margin of victory this season,
Still in the mix: East Carolina, James Madison, Navy, North Texas, South Florida. JMU has clinched the East Division and a berth in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. It will face the winner of Southern Miss vs. Troy. Five American teams are still eligible to play in the conference championship game and several tiebreaker scenarios are still up for grabs. Tulane has one of the most direct paths. If it is the highest ranked American team in the CFP rankings it will end with a win. North Texas would clinch a spot with the win — if Navy isn’t placed ahead of Tulane and North Texas in the CFP rankings on Tuesday. Navy could clinch a spot with a win and a loss for either Tulane or North Texas.
bracket
based on This week’s launchSeeding will take place:
Bye in first round
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC Champion)
No. 4 Georgia
first round games
On campus, December 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American Champion) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 Champion)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champion) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame and No. 8 Oklahoma
quarterfinal game
The Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1, respectively.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech champ vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss Winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. No. 7 Oregon champ vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma Winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
