Time to pack for Texas.
The Longhorns fell to No. 17 Tuesday night, the third of six rankings from the College Football Playoff selection committee, indicating that even if they move up in the standings and punctuate their resume with a win against No. 3 Texas A&M, they could still be out.
However, Notre Dame should purchase some furniture and move on. At No. 9 — ahead of No. 10 Alabama — the selection committee continued to reward the two-loss Irish for the way they played — not who they beat. No. 10 Alabama has recorded four wins against CFP top-25 opponents, including the committee’s No. 4 team Georgia, No. 14 Vanderbilt, No. 20 Tennessee and No. 22 Mizzou, who moved back into the rankings this week. Notre Dame’s only win against a CFP-ranked team is against No. 15 USC.
While the changes at the top were minimal, No. 24 Tulane is now the flavor of the week in the Group of 5 race after Navy ousted South Florida from the same spot.
With only three Saturdays left before Selection Day, there are still games that could completely change the picture, which leaves hope for some teams hovering on the bubble (here’s looking at you, Miami).
Here at Bubble Watch is an account of what we’ve learned so far from the committee – and historical knowledge of what it means for the teams involved with hope. with teams will be in Below are this week’s standings based on the committee’s third ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we have also listed in the final team And first team outThese are true bubble teams revolving around inclusion, Teams labeled still in the mix Not removed, but work remains to be done. a team that is Outside Will have to wait till next year.
The conferences below are ranked from highest to lowest, based on the number of bids they received, based on this week’s committee rankings.
Go to a conference:
acc , big 12 , big ten
seconds , Independent , group of 5
bracket
seconds
Will be here: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Final Team: AlabamaThe loss to Oklahoma didn’t knock the Tide out of the committee’s top 12, but it left No, 10 Alabama in a must-win situation and would put them behind the Sooners, According to ESPN Analytics, the Tide has suffered only one SEC loss and still has the best chance of any team to reach the conference championship game (71,6%),
First team out: VanderbiltNo, 14 Vandy moved ahead of the three-loss Longhorns despite a head-to-head loss to Texas, but remains a long shot to field an at-large bid, The Commodores need to beat Kentucky and Tennessee – while also hopefully causing some chaos on them, Maybe – just maybe – if Bama loses to Auburn in the Iron Bowl, Miami loses to Pitt, and BYU loses to Cincinnati – it could open the door, but clearly a lot of things need to work in their favor,
Still in the mix: None,
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
big ten
Will be at: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Final Team: OregonThat could quickly change if Oregon loses at home to USC on Saturday, as there are questions in the room about the Ducks’ No, 31 schedule strength, The Nov, 8 win at Iowa was impressive, but the Hawkeyes are now a four-loss team and have fallen out of the top 25, The Ducks also have a double-digit home loss to Indiana, which is why their chances of reaching the Big Ten title game are only 12%,
First team out: USCLike Oregon, USC also boosted its resume with a tough, close win against a talented Iowa team that fell out of the rankings with its fourth loss, The Trojans’ two losses were to Illinois and Notre Dame by a total of 12 points – and both were on the road, USC has a key win against No, 18 Michigan, which boosts its standing and gives the Trojans the tiebreaker in the Big Ten standings, If USC can win at Oregon (and avoid an embarrassing home loss to UCLA), the Trojans can unseat the Ducks as the Big Ten’s last ranked team, However, due to head-to-head results, they will likely fall behind Notre Dame,
Still in the mix: MichiganThe difference between No, 18 Michigan and No, 17 Texas is that the Wolverines are still mathematically eligible to reach the Big Ten title game with a 3,6% chance, according to ESPN Analytics, The Wolverines avoided elimination with a narrow 24-22 win at Northwestern on Saturday, They still have a chance to beat the committee’s No, 1 team in rival Ohio State, and if that happens no one in the country will have a better win, If Michigan can make a run in the standings, it will have one of the best two-loss resumes in the country, but will be ranked behind USC unless the Trojans lose again, If USC loses to Oregon, and Oregon loses to Washington – and Michigan moves up the table – the Wolverines will have a strong case to become the Big Ten’s No, 3 team, The Week 2 loss to Oklahoma looks better now that the Sooners are a top-10 team,
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin
big 12
Will be in: Texas Tech
Final Team: Texas TechAt No, 5, the Red Raiders are within reach of a first-round bye and have the best chance to win the Big 12 (69,5%), according to ESPN Analytics, Texas Tech has a bye this week, but could clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game if both Cincinnati and Arizona State lose, A loss to Arizona State on October 18 would not keep Texas Tech out of the CFP if it finished as the two-loss Big 12 runner-up, given how much the committee has rated Texas Tech at this point, Its chances got even better when Arizona State moved up to 25th in the rankings, which lessened the pain of that loss, The Red Raiders finish the regular season 4–7 at West Virginia,
First team out: BYUThe Cougars put everything together during Saturday’s dominant win against TCU, but they will be eliminated from the playoff today to make it to one of the five highest-ranked conference champions, BYU still has the second-best chance of reaching the Big 12 title game (80,2%) behind Texas Tech (97,5%), They can clinch a spot on Saturday with a win against Cincinnati and losses to both Arizona State and Houston, If BYU wins the league, it’s a CFP lock, However, if BYU loses, it will depend on how close the game is, If BYU plays as poorly as it did against Texas Tech during the regular season the selection committee is unlikely to reward it with an at-large bid,
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Cincinnati, UtahAccording to ESPN Analytics, Utah still has an 11,9% chance to reach the Big 12 Championship, followed by ASU (8,4%) and Cincinnati (1,9%),
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
acc
Will be in: Miami
Final Team: MiamiThe No, 13 Canes are listed here because they are the selection committee’s highest-ranked ACC team and are still mathematically eligible to reach the conference championship game, Until that game’s participants are clear, the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team will continue to appear here, Since six teams are still in contention, the fairest representative is from the committee, Still, Miami’s best chance to reach the CFP right now is via an at-large bid as the Canes only have a 7,1% chance of reaching the ACC title game, To get that at-large bid, Miami still has to beat both Virginia Tech and Pitt and hope for a loss above that to move into the top 10, The ACC champion will earn the No, 11 seed and the Group of 5 champion will have the No, 12 seed, so Miami needs to move up to No, 10 by Selection Day, It’s not unimaginable if Alabama loses to Auburn, BYU loses to Cincinnati and Utah loses to K-State or Kansas, It will require more than one of those things – if not all three, The question will be whether the committee will ever revisit Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame in the season opener, The Canes would probably have to come close to the Irish in their ranking to be comparable using that tiebreaker, Georgia Tech can clinch a spot in the game with a win against Pitt on Saturday, and Virginia can clinch a spot in the game with losses to Duke, Pitt and SMU,
First team out: Georgia TechThe Yellow Jackets, despite themselves, defeated a 1–10 Boston College team by two points and are one win away from guaranteeing an appearance in the ACC Championship Game, They also have a chance to earn a top-5 win in the regular season finale against Georgia, If Georgia Tech does not beat Georgia, it will have to win the ACC to reach the playoff as the three-loss ACC runner-up is eliminated,
Still in the mix: Duke, Pitt, SMU, VirginiaVirginia has the best chance to reach the ACC title game (77,7%); SMU is third (38%), followed by Duke (11%), Miami and Pitt (7%),
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Will be in: Notre Dame. At No. 9 and ahead of two-loss Alabama, Notre Dame is winning the eye test, as it trails Alabama in both strength of record and strength of schedule. Alabama’s schedule is ranked No. 4 in the country, while the Irish are ranked No. 29. Notre Dame’s best wins are against USC, Navy and Pitt, with USC only being ranked No. 15 this week. As long as the Irish finish the season with wins against Syracuse and Stanford, their spot in the playoff should be secure.
group of 5
Will be at: TulaneThe Green Wave has nice wins against Northwestern, Duke and Memphis, and has the best combination of eye test and resume of the current contenders, Tulane’s No, 71 schedule strength is better than James Madison (No, 119), North Texas (No, 127) and Navy (No, 74), According to ESPN Analytics, Tulane and North Texas are the most likely teams to play for the American Conference championship, but North Texas has the best chance (61,4%) to win the league,
Still in the mix: James Madison, Navy, North TexasOf these teams, JMU has the best strength of record (No, 24) and game control (No, 40) ranks, but the worst strength of schedule (No, 119), Navy has its best win – against South Florida – and best loss (to Notre Dame), but lost to North Texas,
bracket
Based on the third ranking of the committee, the preference will be as follows:
Bye in first round
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC Champion)
No. 4 Georgia
first round games
On campus, December 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American Champion) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 Champion)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champion) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame and No. 8 Oklahoma
quarterfinal game
in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, the Capital One Orange Bowl, the Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and the Allstate Sugar Bowl on December 31 and January 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech champ vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss Winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. No. 7 Oregon champ vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma Winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
