The College Football Playoff selection committee will have three main questions to answer in the second of six rankings Tuesday night (7 ET, ESPN).
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Who is number 2? Texas A&M continued to build its resume with a dominant win against No. 22 Missouri, but was it enough to defeat Indiana?
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How far does BYU fall? The answer will impact teams ranked 9-12.
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How does the committee resolve the ACC’s status quo?
Bubble Watch explains what we’ve learned from the committee so far – and what might happen in the second ranking. with teams will be in The standings below are this week’s bracket based on our Projected Top 12For each Power 4 conference, we have also listed in the final team And first team outThese are true bubble teams revolving around inclusion. Teams labeled still in the mix Not removed, but work remains to be done. a team that is Outside Will have to wait till next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they received, ranked from highest to lowest based on our estimation. After the second ranking check the updated version which reflects the latest list of the selection committee.
Go to a conference:
acc , big 12 , big ten
seconds , Independent , group of 5
bracket
seconds
Will be at: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas, Texas A&M
Final Team: TexasIf BYU goes down to Texas and Oklahoma on Tuesday night, it would mean the Longhorns would receive a promotion by default. They had a bye on Saturday just in time to prepare for Georgia, and no one has a better chance than Texas to impress the selection committee this month. The Longhorns will face two top-five opponents in Georgia and No. 3 Texas A&M, but with a bad loss to Florida, as well as a loss to Ohio State, Texas is still on the bubble, even though it may appear to be in a safe spot this week. If Texas finishes as a three-loss team, it’s conceivable it could be ranked in the top 12, but it would likely face a similar situation to Alabama last year. The Tide were the committee’s top three losing teams, but moved out of the top 12 during the seeding process to make room for a conference champion, who earned a guaranteed spot. With the ACC and Group of 5 champions currently outside the committee’s top 12, it seems likely that the No. 11- and No. 12-ranked teams will be shut out — and that’s probably the ceiling for a three-loss Texas team.
First team out: OklahomaThe Sooners got a bye this week to prepare for Alabama, which is basically a playoff-elimination game for OU. Unlike Texas, the Sooners won’t have enough on their resume to make up for a third loss, even if they are on the road to being a top-four team. Their best wins will be against Michigan, Auburn and Tennessee – and if their record stays the same they will lose to Texas in a head-to-head tiebreaker.
Still in the mix: VanderbiltThe Commodores need some chaos to get back into the conversation, but an overtime win against Auburn kept hopes alive. Vandy will not play in the SEC Championship Game, and its only remaining opponents are Kentucky and Tennessee. Texas, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt are vying for a fifth at-large bid to the SEC – which is not guaranteed – and Texas has a head-to-head win over Vandy. However, if OU and Texas lose, and Vandy wins, Vandy can advance to Selection Day.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee
big ten
Will be at: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Final Team: OregonThe Ducks did exactly what the committee needed to do on Saturday: get a blowout win against a CFP top-25 team in Iowa. Although Oregon should maintain its spot in the top 10 on Tuesday night, that doesn’t mean the Ducks are a lock for the playoff. What if they lose to USC? According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, if USC moves up the table, its chances of reaching the playoff will increase to 80% – ahead of Oregon (77.5%), which could still get in. with USC depends on how far the committee leaves the Ducks after another home loss. How the game progresses will also factor into that decision.
First team out: USCFriday night’s win against Northwestern (wait, he’s not a betting man!) kept the Trojans’ playoff hopes alive. They escaped trouble in a short week while NU had a bye week to prepare. However, before USC gets to Oregon, it has to play another extremely tough home game against Iowa on Saturday. If USC and Michigan race the standings, it could create a significant debate in the committee meeting room because USC would have the head-to-head wins, but Michigan would have beaten No. 1 Ohio State for the best wins in the country. USC also has its own tiebreaker problem, as it lost the head-to-head result at Notre Dame.
Still in the mix: MichiganThe Wolverines have suffered respectable losses twice – to USC and Oklahoma – but they have a chance to win the best title in the country if they can defeat rival Ohio State for the fifth consecutive season. If Michigan moves the table, it will have a 46% chance of reaching the playoff – ninth best in the country, independent of other results. Head-to-head tiebreakers may be a factor when ranking Michigan against USC and Oklahoma, but at 10-2 with a win against the committee’s top team, the Wolverines will be in the discussion.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin
big 12
Will be in: Texas Tech
Final Team: Texas TechThe Red Raiders separated themselves from the rest of the league after Saturday’s impressive win against BYU, one of the best in the country.
First team out: BYUHow far the Cougars fall is one of the biggest questions of the week. The most likely scenario is that they either fall to No. 10 – safely above the pack of two-loss teams that did not play (Texas, Oklahoma and Utah) – or they fall to No. 12, behind the Sooners and above Utah because they beat the Utes. If BYU is ranked No. 12 — and doesn’t win the Big 12 — it will be eliminated from the field on Selection Day to make room for the Group of 5 conference champion. If BYU wins the Big 12, it’s still a realistic scenario that it would clinch a spot in the playoff, regardless of where it falls. However, BYU’s chances of earning an at-large bid took a significant blow on Saturday as it lost to Texas Tech – with a substandard offensive performance that included three turnovers.
Still in the mix: Cincinnati, UtahCincinnati was not included in the selection committee’s initial rankings, but the Bearcats are still listed here because they – and Utah – have at least a 17% chance of reaching the Big 12 title game. Any Power 4 team that has a realistic chance of playing for its conference title has a chance in the 12-team field because the five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed bids. Cincinnati has only had one loss in the Big 12 (the other was the season opener against Nebraska in Kansas City), but it was a 45–14 loss to Utah. The Bearcats have a chance for a sure win on Nov. 22 when they host BYU. The committee has a lot of respect for Utah, but with Baylor, Kansas State and Kansas gone on the schedule, winning the Big 12 is the most realistic path to the playoff for the Utes.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
acc
Will be in: Georgia Tech
Final Team: Georgia TechThe ACC continues to struggle with its top two teams – Virginia and Louisville – losing to unranked opponents Wake Forest and Cal, respectively, on Saturday night. That means, according to ESPN Analytics, Georgia Tech and Duke (yes, Duke) are the most likely teams to play for the ACC title. However, Georgia Tech still has an opportunity to shut out its opponents when it plays rival Georgia in the regular season finale. While this would be one of the best wins in the country, it won’t be enough to put the Yellow Jackets on the field if they don’t win the ACC. Given that Georgia Tech started the committee’s rankings at No. 17, behind Virginia and Louisville, this would be a significant jump. The ACC is not in danger of being eliminated from the playoff – its champion will make it – but it is becoming less likely that the league runner-up will make it.
First team out: VirginiaCavaliers face double blow in loss to Wake Forest as starting quarterback chandler morris Left the game due to injury. Virginia now had two bad losses – to NC State and Wake Forest – and a win against Louisville to make up for them. Heavy rainfall can be seen in Hoos on Tuesday night. According to ESPN Analytics, the Cavaliers’ chances of playing in the ACC title game dropped to 35.2% with the loss – fourth in the ACC behind Georgia Tech, Duke and SMU.
Still in the mix: Duke, Louisville, Miami, Pitt, SMUAccording to ESPN Analytics, all of these teams have at least a 5% chance of reaching the ACC title game. However, of all the teams listed here, Georgia Tech, Virginia, SMU and Miami lead the ACC with at least a 10% chance of reaching the CFP.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Will be in: Notre Dame. Depending on where BYU falls after its loss to Texas Tech, the Irish could move up to No. 9 on Tuesday night. If the Cougars fall below No. 12 Oklahoma, Notre Dame will move up by default. The Fighting Irish dominated Navy on Saturday, playing without an injury to its starting quarterback Blake HorvathIt was Notre Dame’s seventh consecutive win after starting the season 0–2. In last week’s rankings, the committee recognized that those two losses were worth a total of four points to the two CFP top-25 teams, including No. 3 and undefeated Texas A&M. The committee was also impressed by Notre Dame’s 34–24 win against USC on October 18, and will continue to echo the Trojans’ improvement to 7–2 after Friday’s win against Northwestern.
group of 5
Will be in: South FloridaAfter Memphis’ loss, the two teams most likely to play each other in the American Conference title game are South Florida and North Texas. According to ESPN Analytics, the Bulls have the best chance (42%) to win the American. Wins against Boise State and Florida, as well as North Texas, give the Bulls the lead over James Madison.
Still in the mix: James Madison, North Texas, Tulane. JMU has won seven straight games and its only loss came at Louisville, but Duke has nothing on their resume to make up for it. According to ESPN Analytics, JMU’s schedule is ranked No. 115 in the nation. JMU has the second-best chance to reach the CFP (35.8%), behind South Florida (39.7%). North Texas and Tulane are still alive as they both still have at least a 44% chance of reaching the US title game.
bracket
based on This week’s launchSeeding will take place:
Bye in first round
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC Champion)
No. 4 Alabama
first round games
On campus, December 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American Champion) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Georgia Tech (ACC champion) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Texas Tech (Big 12 champion)
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oregon
quarterfinal game
The Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1, respectively.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia champ vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 11 Georgia Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss Winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Texas/No. 7 Texas Tech Winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. No. 8 Oregon champ vs. No. 1 Ohio State
