Last month, when President Trump addressed them, America’s top military officials sat silent in quanticoPeople who spoke their minds took risks he was stripped of his position,
Yet America’s military and intelligence leaders know Trump is endangering national security Dismissing climate change as a hoaxFor decades, security and intelligence analysts have repeatedly warned that global warming acts as a “Threat Multiplier.”
Scientists have underlined that conclusion. Recently as Kevin Trenberth at the National Center for Atmospheric Research Explained: “By the time global temperatures reach 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures, set for the 2050s, there will not only be more frequent extreme weather events… the result will be massive environmental refugees, leading to heightened tensions and regional conflicts that could engulf many countries.”
America is also included in those countries. At a minimum, US military forces would be sent to conduct humanitarian missions in other countries destabilized by climate impacts. In a worst-case scenario, the US could be dragged into wars within and between other countries.
Stanford University researchers pointed this out six years agoThey estimated that the impact of climate change on conflicts is “expected to increase dramatically”, more than doubling if the planet’s temperature rises 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Paris Climate Agreement.
However, this is an optimistic scenario. The world will get just as hot under current policies 2.9 degrees by 2100According to Climate Action Tracker.
Trump is ignoring a long series of warnings from the government’s top military and intelligence experts. in 2007, military advisory board The Center for Naval Analysis was the first to use the label “threat multiplier”. It states that global warming “poses a serious threat to US national security”, threatens to destabilize some of the world’s most unstable regions, and “will increase tensions even in stable regions.”
in 2012, The Department of Homeland Security warned, “The impacts of climate change could directly impact the nation’s critical infrastructure.”
in 2014, Department of DefenseThe report said, “A changing climate will have real impacts on our military and the way it executes its missions. …Climate change will impact the Department of Defense’s ability to defend the nation and pose immediate risks to U.S. national security.”
In 2015, the White House National Security Strategy warned, “Climate change is an urgent and growing threat to our national security, contributing to increased natural disasters, refugee flows, and conflict over basic resources like food and water.”
In 2016, the National Intelligence Council New advisory issued: “Climate change is projected to produce more intense and frequent extreme weather events, multiple meteorological disturbances, as well as widespread climate-related impacts such as sea level rise. These are almost certain to have significant direct and indirect social, economic, political and security impacts during the next 20 years.”
Climate change poses a direct threat to many US forces 750 establishments in 80 countries. Many are within reach of intense coastal storms and sea level rise, and are located in countries that are expected to be severely affected by climate impacts.
In 2018, the Department of Defense US military infrastructure surveyed around the world and found that half of 3,500 sites were affected by extreme weather and other climate-related risks. The department concluded, “Our warfighters need bases from which they can deploy, train at, or reside when not deployed. If extreme weather renders our critical facilities unusable or requires costly or manpower-intensive solutions, that is an unacceptable impact.”
A year later, it was reported that there was already a risk of floods, drought or wildfires. 74 of its 79 most important establishments.
Climate change should not be a major cause of armed conflict. Instead, it is a catalyst where other instabilities are present. For this reason, analysts say that foreign aid is important for improving socio-economic conditions in vulnerable countries.
The National Intelligence Council concluded, “Unless we invest more in supporting communities who are on the front lines of the climate emergency to better adapt and prepare for the inevitable increase in extreme weather events, the preconditions for conflict and violence are likely to increase.”
Yet, Trump mocks and denies climate change. he has discredited climate science, stop usaid, cut billions from foreign aid, America withdrew from Paris climate agreement, US production of fossil fuels acceleratesused the threat of trade tariffs Extorting other countries to buy American oil and gasand wasted the resources of the armed forces by deploying them against Democrat-run states and cities so that they could no longer exist “The enemy from within.” Yet, in national security terms, the “enemy within” lies within the White House.
How should America’s top military officials and intelligence officials respond? Certainly not with stony silence.
William S. BakerHe is the co-editor and contributor to “Democracy Unchained: How to Rebuild Government for the People” and a contributor to Democracy in Hotter Times, named by Nature magazine as one of the five best science books of 2023. He previously served as a senior official in the Wisconsin Department of Justice and is currently the executive director of the Presidential Climate Action Project, a non-partisan climate policy think tank unaffiliated with the White House.
